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What’s the probability the Irkutsk lab worker death is actually totally unrelated to plague research and just a wild coincidence? As far as I know the broken test tube story is both incredible and mere speculation at this point.

Suppose she did become exposed to garden variety Yersinia Pestis despite safety protocols appropriate to a BSL-3 lab. What’s the probability she dies given the precise moment of exposure is known well in advance of symptom onset and that antibiotics exist and are effective when treated early?

I ascribe a higher probability to the hypothesis that there was an exposure event and that it does not involve your “garden variety” plague.

Feel free to use observation/assumption interchangeably above, as it’s meant to be hypothetical