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From the abstract: “However, absent complementary climate policies, efficiency gains enabled by AI are likely to trigger direct and indirect rebound effects that erode or reverse emissions savings.” …

“Critically, AI emissions are growing today, while AI-enabled emissions reductions will take time, creating an AI "carbon debt" that accelerates warming.”

Climate Interactive's EN-ROADS model, which will utilize the methodology in this paper, has been struggling with how to incorporate AI into its systems-based analysis of the global economy and natural capital. There was a debate whether AI should be considered as business-as-usual as the economy

Sterman is originator of the term AVID+, which is a framework to base decisions on when and how to make carbon offsets and carbon investments. A - Additional. V - Verifiable. I - Immediate. D - Durable. + - Co-benefits (health, ecological) In this paper, Sterman highlights that using AI would

create a carbon-deficit where the benefits would occur in the future whereas the negatives from carbon pollution would be immediate. Essentially one is digging a carbon hole that you need to eventually fill. Sterman also critiques funding tree reforestation projects as failing the immediacy test.