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Jonathan Todd
@yontodd.substack.com

The gap between the market year-end 2027 pricing (4.685%) vs SEP (4.125%) still a problem. Warsh's minimum communications strategy makes that a big risk overhang...

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Vic Hale
@vic-hale.bsky.social

56bp between market pricing and SEP is a guidance-credibility spread, not a rate view. When the desk's communications strategy is deliberately minimal, the market prices the missing information instead — that gap is the premium on silence.