Jonathan Todd
Jonathan Todd
@yontodd.substack.com
📈📉 US markets/macro/Fed/housing (all opinions here = own). 🗣️ Learning French with very modest success (Intermediate/B1). 📍Chicago, but always very Californian. https://yontodd.substack.com/
2.4K followers509 following930 posts
Jonathan Todd reposted
Slow down there maestro, there's a *New* Mexico? www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEJz...
Wilmette gets its moment in the sun for... our new Hermès store www.wsj.com/business/ret...
Time to rename the Scaramucci metric Trump says new White House press secretary Katie Zacharia should ‘reconsider’ job www.cnbc.com/2026/10/16/t...
Jonathan Todd reposted
Jonathan Todd reposted
Wanted to finish listening to the full album first before reading the review but can confirm it's excellent www.ft.com/content/7396...
Jonathan Todd reposted
Good day to post given some pretty brutal stock performances today ($CRWV, $ORCL, etc)... It’s not just "Mag 7 vs the 493," it's just as much about the market's ruthless sorting mechanism dictated by the cost of capital yontodd.substack.com/p/the-one-tr...
“In 2010, every member of the Forbes 400 was wealthy enough to have bought Liverpool Football Club for less than half their net worth. Today, despite the enormous increase in global wealth over the intervening period, just 88 of them could do the same.“
“…have I told you about the time I owned a football club? It was 1996 and an opportunity arose to invest in Liverpool FC…” - Marc Rubinstein open.substack.com/pub/netinter...
Compute demand isn’t slowing, and 8% borrowing costs aren't the problem when GPU projects generate 25% IRRs. The real vulnerability is token price deflation squeezing cash flows while carrying high single-digit coupons. substack.com/@yontodd/not...
On the other hand… bsky.app/profile/carl...
Yeesh. 👀 (Bloomberg) - The most likely long-term outcome of the AI boom will be massive capital destruction in the US, with market share going to cheaper open-source Chinese models, according to Jefferies Financial Group Inc. @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Jonathan Todd reposted
“The city’s transition away from the car, tho fantastically chaotic, has become a global role model. Under mayor Anne Hidalgo, Paris was ‘the most influential city in the world’ says Canadian urbanist Brent Toderian. Hidalgo, stepping down after 12 yrs, exulted: ‘The bike beat the car.’” #Paris
October Michigan Current Conditions index of 44.7 lowest in series history - survey started in 1951 www.sca.isr.umich.edu
Jonathan Todd reposted
Thinking through the Open AI FT report, I’m not 100% convinced it’s a demand issue. OpenAI share stable on Openrouter. I think it’s just price cuts -though tbh I’m not sure that’s any better than a demand issue but interesting context to consider... www.ft.com/content/b66a...
Jonathan Todd reposted
"Muse, the popular new AI personal assistant from Meta, is building continuously updated dossiers on its 4 million users The level of insight in the resulting dossiers makes social-media algorithms that study your likes and clicks look quaint" time.com/article/2026...
Jonathan Todd reposted
"More than two-thirds of groups on the Russell 1000 index of large US groups are linked to AI, either directly or because the technology is becoming embedded in their business models, according to Citigroup research." www.ft.com/content/3302...
Jonathan Todd reposted
The CTA has unveiled a 1950s neon-style sign at a revamped Blue Line stop. buff.ly/5Ifslf9
Jonathan Todd reposted
Put together some thoughts on AI/capex, the recent shift to off-balance sheet, and why it's (probably? maybe?) not the same as the pre-GFC financial gymnastics yontodd.substack.com/p/gpu-monoli...
Jonathan Todd reposted
Great way to demonstrate the club isn't state owned and is a totally independent business, honest.
UAE warns Andy Burnham it may pull billions in investment for the UK's proposed Oxford-Cambridge tech hub—dubbed the UK's Silicon Valley—in retaliation over Manchester City's guilty verdict, per The Telegraph.
Jonathan Todd reposted
Forget "I don't blame you, Kevin," the "This just happened?" is the best quote on Trump/Fed bit time.com/article/2026...
Regardless... Some wild data out this week on how extreme this skew has become: - ~45% of S&P 500 stocks have a negative beta to the index - Top-heavy skew is breaking standard portfolio hedges - How buying SPX puts is like buying insurance on the Dodgers yontodd.substack.com/p/sp500-nega...
Net exports, consumer spending a bigger than expected drag on growth... Atlanta Fed GDPNow down from 5.0% to 3.7% www.atlantafed.org/research-and...
Jonathan Todd reposted