John Paulsen

John Paulsen

@4for4-john.bsky.social

Director of Forecasting, 4for4 Fantasy Football | Betsperts | 2x FantasyPros Most Accurate Expert | 10x Top 10 Accuracy 2010-21 | 8x Top 5 Accuracy 2010-21 | PP1D! | FTF

5.5K followers509 following2.1K posts

Updated Sneaky Starts ($) to add Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason, Emanuel Wilson, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Godwin, Ted Hurst, Makai Lemon, Darius Cooper, and Cade Otton. Use code JOHN50 to get 50% off any already-discounted rest-of-season 4for4 sub. www.4for4.com/2026/w7/week...

4for4.comWeek 7 Fantasy Football Sneaky Starts & SleepersAll but the luckiest fantasy owners at some point need to find the proverbial diamond in the rough, a waiver wire or bench player capable of putting up some points in a pinch. This weekly feature is…

Pretty fun new game over at PlayVo. It's a 50/50 contest but for sports betting. $25 or $100 entry. Everyone gets a $1K bankroll to enter picks, and if you finish top half, you win (2x - 10% rake). πŸ‘‰ bit.ly/4y2WtE1

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4. TE Tucker Kraft (@ DET) I wish he were a no-brainer, every-week start, but 25-249-1 on the season is a letdown. 20 targets in his L3. DET allows 10.2-109-1.8 per game to TEs! Wk 2 Kincaid 7-95-1 Wk 3 Sadiq 7-105-1 Wk 5 McBride 9 catches, 1 TD It better be breakout time for Tucker.

6. If you liked this thread you can find all of my work at 4for4, including: β€’ Rankings β€’ Projections β€’ Articles β€’ Start/sit tools The full Week 7 column has 19 more sneaky starts: www.4for4.com/2026/w7/week... Use code JOHN50 for 50% off any already-discounted subscription.

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2. RB Dameon Pierce (vs. DAL) With Barkley, Bigsby and Shipley out last week, Pierce handled 16 of 17 backfield touches and played 95% of the snaps. Only 50 yards, but he scored. Dallas allows 128 total yards and 1.2 TDs per game to RBs. If Barkley sits, he's startable.

3. WR Konata Mumpfield (@ LV) Davante Adams is out. We've already seen Mumpfield in a bigger role: 73% of snaps at Denver in Week 3, 4-93-1 on 8 targets. WR11 for the week. LV allows 9.7-161-1.2 per game to WRs.

1. QB Bo Nix (@ ARI) Nix is at 175 pass yards and 1.0 TD per game after averaging 227 and 1.6 the last 2 years. The schedule is part of it: 4 bad matchups, 2 neutral. Arizona allows 247 yards and 2.7 TDs per game to QBs. Every QB but Herbert has thrown 2+ on them.

In the 14 games that T.J. Hockenson has played without Justin Jefferson, he's averaged 5.4-66-0.43 (8.0). Kyler has targeted Hockenson on 5-of-29 targeted pass attempts (17.2%). Jordan Addison has averaged 5.0-62-0.57 (7.6) in the 7 games he's played without JJ. 5-90-1 (9) after JJ left early.

I added Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Emanuel Wilson, and Dontayvion Wicks to Week 4's Sneaky Starts πŸ‘‡ Jordan Addison and Kenyon Sadiq have also seen recent bumps due to expected usage. JOHN50 gets you 50% off any 4for4 subscription. www.4for4.com/2026/w4/week...

4for4.comWeek 4 Fantasy Football Sneaky Starts & SleepersAll but the luckiest fantasy owners at some point need to find the proverbial diamond in the roughβ€”a waiver wire or bench player capable of putting up some points in a pinch. This weekly feature is…
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4. TE: Darren Waller, Panthers (vs. DET) Snap share: W1 - 35% W2 - 44% W3 - 51% Detroit is allowing 9.7 catches, 117 yards, and 2.0 TDs per game to TEs. πŸ‘€

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2. RB: Braelon Allen, Jets (@ CHI) Breece Hall left Week 3 with a thigh issue and is likely to miss at least 1 week. That puts Allen in the lead role, with Isaiah Davis as the change-of-pace back. A lead role is worth a flex/RB2 start in most formats.

3. WR: Keenan Allen, Colts (@ WAS) With Alec Pierce out last week, his snap share spiked to 73%. Allen 6-63-1 (9) Washington is giving up 15.3 catches, 191 yards, and 2.0 TDs per game to WRs. 80th-percentile route grade last year, still dangerous at 34.

1. QB: Bryce Young, Panthers (vs. DET) Detroit is allowing 326 passing yards and 3.0 passing TDs per game to QBs. Young just threw 48 times for 291 yards and a score against Cleveland, and I think the volume will be there again.

A TE whose snaps nearly doubled. A Charger worth stashing. A hamstring projection that hit to the decimal... until the last play. 6 key stats from Week 3 fantasy football, straight from Thinking Outside the Box, exclusive to the 4for4 Discord πŸ‘‡οΈ

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A TE whose snaps nearly doubled. A Charger worth stashing. A hamstring projection that hit to the decimal... until the last play. 6 key stats from Week 3 fantasy football, straight from Thinking Outside the Box, exclusive to the 4for4 Discord πŸ‘‡οΈ

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6. Quentin Johnston is still playing more snaps (87%), but in W3 Tre' Harris led LAC in targets (7), catches (6), and yards (76) on 58% of the snaps. He's second on the team in catches (10), and yards (149). Stash him/trade for him if you can; might be something there.

A TE whose snaps nearly doubled. A Charger worth stashing. A hamstring projection that hit to the decimal... until the last play. 6 key stats from Week 3 fantasy football, straight from Thinking Outside the Box, exclusive to the 4for4 Discord πŸ‘‡οΈ

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3. Zay Flowers played through a hamstring, which typically cuts production 18%, per our Injury Index. On a 20- to 30-snap count, that put his projection at 9.7 half-PPR points. He played 21 snaps and sat at exactly 9.7 🎯 ...until Lamar Jackson found him for 27 yards on the last play.

4. With Alec Pierce out: Downs 5-77 (11) Warren 9-55 (10) Allen 6-63-1 (9) Josh Downs delivered as a Sneaky Start. Keenan Allen spiked to a 73% snap share and could be usable on a weekly basis. πŸ‘΄

A TE whose snaps nearly doubled. A Charger worth stashing. A hamstring projection that hit to the decimal... until the last play. 6 key stats from Week 3 fantasy football, straight from Thinking Outside the Box, exclusive to the 4for4 Discord πŸ‘‡οΈ

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2. My favorite Strategery late-round QB, Brock Purdy, added another 297/4 plus 34 rushing yards. He's the QB2 on the season at 27.0 points per game. 😎

George Kittle snap share: W1 - 46% W2 - 48% W3 - 85% Kittle 6-82-2 (7) after 4-80-1 (4) Shaping up as maybe the best middle-round TE value, though Travis Kelce and Dalton Kincaid will have something to say about that.

A TE whose snaps nearly doubled. A Charger worth stashing. A hamstring projection that hit to the decimal... until the last play. 6 key stats from Week 3 fantasy football, straight from Thinking Outside the Box, exclusive to the 4for4 Discord πŸ‘‡οΈ

With De'Von Achane's season-ending ACL injury, many people are wondering about Jaylen Wright vs. Ollie Gordon. Given the state of the MIA offense, the answer is probably neither, because both players will be sharing a bad role, but if I had to choose--I'd pick Wright as my waiver wire add.

While most of Jaylen Wright's numbers aren't good, they are almost universally better than Gordon's. Wright has an above-average YAC/att (69th percentile) and YAC/rec (60th percentile), while Gordon's lone good metric is BrkTkl/touch (85th-percentile).

Most managers are going to bid on Gordon because he got the work in Week 3, but Wright was out with an injury and is considered day-to-day. He's listed as Achane's backup on MIA's unofficial depth chart.

🚨 It's aFPA day at 4for4. Our signature SOS metric, adjusted fantasy points allowed, is now live with '26 data. We adjust for schedule, so it's an apples-to-apples comparison. Great for making lineup/roster decisions. Use code JOHN50 for 50% off any sub: www.4for4.com/hot-spots?ta...

I have a streaming QB inside my Week 3 top 8. He's 1 of 24 fantasy football Sneaky Starts that I wrote up this week. Here are 4, one at each position:

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4. TE Oronde Gadsden, LAC vs. BUF David Njoku (fibula) and Charlie Kolar (forearm) are out. The seas have parted. His snap rate went from 18% in Week 1 to 44% in Week 2 and should spike further. From Week 6 on last year: 3.4-49-0.25 on 4.8 targets per game.

I have a streaming QB inside my Week 3 top 8. He's 1 of 24 fantasy football Sneaky Starts that I wrote up this week. Here are 4, one at each position:

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2. RB David Montgomery, HOU at IND Week 1: 20-60-2 rushing, 3-19-1 receiving, all 5 of Houston's red zone carries Week 2: 6 carries for 10 yards in a 20-6 loss Indy has allowed 1,029 yards through 2 games, 354 on the ground. Monty should produce.

3. WR Deebo Samuel, SF vs. ARI Demarcus Robinson (high ankle) is out. Mike Evans (hip) is questionable. Samuel 9-79-1 (11) through 2 weeks, plus 2 carries for 16 yards. He's playing with one of the most efficient QBs in the league.

I have a streaming QB inside my Week 3 top 8. He's 1 of 24 fantasy football Sneaky Starts that I wrote up this week. Here are 4, one at each position:

1. QB Tyler Shough, NO vs. LV He leads the NFL in completions (62) and passing yards (662) through 2 weeks. Week 1: 410 yards Week 2: 252/1, plus 23 rushing yards and the game-winning sneak He's my QB7 this week.