Aaron Schatz

This is a pinned post for people new to my work. DVOA explainer: ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-exp... Latest DVOA numbers: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te... Stats content on FTN: ftnfantasy.com/stats/articles

Here's another look at teams similar to the Vikings. These are teams in DVOA that were: Bottom 5 offense Top 3 defense Above-average special teams Here are the 2015 Broncos again. Of the other teams, only the 1984 Seahawks won a playoff game. A profile like this is rare.

A week of upsets scrambles the DVOA rankings, with the Bengals now close to the 49ers at the top. Plus, Tampa Bay and the best 2-5 teams ever. Could they finish with a winning record? ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-7-d...

If you scroll right on the DVOA pages you'll now see future schedule split into offense and defense. For example, the SEA and MIN defenses, the two best so far, have two of the three hardest remaining schedules of opposing offenses. ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/de...

The Cowboys have single-game DVOA of about 60% for last night and for their Week 2 37-20 win over the Commanders. They have negative DVOA in each of their other five games including their win over the Texans. They moved up from 21st to 16th after last night.

Great job by @benjaminsolak.bsky.social on the ESPN NGS broadcast halftime doing film breakdowns. Finally a reason to watch something at halftime.

Eagles right there with Texans among most disappointing defenses. Came into tonight 17th in DVOA

What a job by Pickens keeping his left foot JUST inside the boundary.

Apparently we have found the solution to the Eagles' offensive problems.

Our playoff odds for the NFC East champion depending on tonight's game. Dallas wins: Cowboys 49%, Giants 33%, Commanders 13%, Eagles 5% Philly wins: Giants 41%, Eagles 22%, Cowboys 20%, Commanders 17%

New at @ftnfantasy.com: Quick Reads Week 7. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has the fourth-highest DYAR total ever through seven games. He's on pace to set the all-time receiving record. Plus, best and worst players of Week 7 by DYAR. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-7-q...

Monday Night Football DVOA Breakdown 🏟️ Cowboys @ Eagles

Yep, Denver is the lowest 6-0 team by DVOA but also by point differential. And yep, they won the title. The Vikings could too!

Since I'm sure it will come up, here's a list of the worst 6-0 teams by DVOA. Obviously, all these teams were pretty good. They were undefeated! 2026 Vikings are sixth lowest.

New at @ftnfantasy.com: Quick Reads Week 7. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has the fourth-highest DYAR total ever through seven games. He's on pace to set the all-time receiving record. Plus, best and worst players of Week 7 by DYAR. ftnfantasy.com/nfl/week-7-q...

Bo Nix led all quarterbacks in average depth of target this week! Will wonders ever cease?

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, you may know, is on pace to break the all-time receiving yards record. He also has 303 DYAR, leading the league by over 100. He's on pace for 737 receiving DYAR. The record is 618 by Cooper Kupp in 2021. He's incredible.

Due to unforeseen circumstances, there will be no Schatz and @miketanier.bsky.social podcast today. Sorry folks! We'll be back with a show on Thursday to preview Week 8.

After the 49ers' poor performance this week, there aren't any units that are really historically good or bad in DVOA this year. The closest is the Rams special teams (15th worst through 7 games).

Today's Sports Equinox is making history of its own... ⚾🏀🏈🏒 It's just the 6th time a Sports Equinox has fallen on a Monday, but it's also the 4th straight one to do so—and for the first time, all four leagues will play on October 26. Sports Equinox history: www.sports-reference.com/friv/sports-...

Updated DVOA SB odds. Some rematch odds: Super Bowls XXIII-XVI (SF-CIN) 6.7% Super Bowl IV (MIN-KC) 1.6% Super Bowl XLVII (SF-BAL) 1.3% Super Bowl XLVIII (SEA-DEN) 0.7% ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...

The 49ers remain No. 1 in DVOA but their lead over the No. 2 team has gone from 17.2% last week to 3.0% this week. Also, we have a new No. 2, with Cincinnati now Top 10 in all three phases. All the numbers here: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...

The Texans have gone from two years of a Top 3 defense to a below average defense by DVOA (16th - remember, DVOA is "below average" if it is above 0%). Here's a list of similar teams since 1977, including the end of the Steel Curtain and a Ravens team that surprisingly won the Super Bowl.

Are we talking about this guy? www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/hu...

Bring out your wide right jokes.

I feel like something went wrong with that play call because the two Seahawks receivers ended up in the same place. Or were they supposed to be crossing and just, uh, didn't?

OK, well, I guess he can't catch everything.

Bored with picking on L'Jarius Sneed, the Seahawks have decided to move JSN around to make things more fair. It did not work (to make things more fair).

A lot of talk about different players for OPOY this year but how about just JSN again?

The goal line goes around the world.

I was just thinking to myself, at what point can agree it's been this way long enough, that Mahomes just isn't the same guy he was when he was younger, even if he's still very good. And then that throw.

We're running out of ways to talk about JSN's greatness.

One more note about penalties. Last year, Roughing the Passer was called on the Bears 9 times and on their opponents only twice. This year, not including this week, it was called on the Bears once and on their opponents 4 times. Nothing changed about the Bears.

I write a column every week with five picks based on DVOA. It went 0-5 last week. It went 4-0-1 this week because Gibbs just slid down instead of scoring. You win some, you lose some.

No. Analysis will show that Moore calls too many penalties and some of the penalties in this game were pretty bad and it is NOT BECAUSE HE HAS ANYTHING AGAINST YOU, PERSONALLY.

You are not legally required to follow me on social media.

If Alex Moore's history shows that he has a personal axe to grind against the Green Bay Packers, he should absolutely be fired. Everyone on this crew should be fired. I have a feeling that analysis will not show that.

Guys, sometimes a random coin flip will come up heads 10 straight times. It happens.

As bad as some of these roughing calls are I still think that one against Van Ness a couple weeks ago was even worse.

The random number generator is really coming up against the Packers today, though, isn't it?

Oh, wait, it was tipped by one of the Lions.

Trey Smack now has the two shortest missed field goals of the year (not blocked) in the SAME GAME. What the hell?

I don't think I would have done it but here's the ESPN model.

I don't like the pulling guard on fourth-and-1, and it was more like 1.5 yards.

I think that's the second failed hook-and-lateral play in the NFL today. The other one fell one yard short, I can't remember right now which game it was.