Anti-Corruption Data Collective

washingtonpost.comHegseth bans defense personnel from insider trading with military secretsThe directive warns that trades made on prediction market platforms put U.S. troops and missions at risk.

A memo from US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirms the threat of foreign militaries and intelligence agencies monitoring prediction markets for insider trading on military events. This is precisely the risk we warned about in our August report. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

reuters.comEXCLUSIVE: More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research findsMore than 150 wallets on Polymarket International may have traded on inside U.S. military information, attracting copycat bets and raising concerns that the market could broadcast signals exploitable...

"Most people vastly underestimate how observable unusual betting activity actually is on Polymarket. It's all right there on the internet, and we can see clear signs that big traders and bots are copying potential insider trades" - @szakonyi.bsky.social www.reuters.com/business/fin...

Anti-Corruption Data Collective reposted

meduza.ioUS threatens Europe with ‘devastating’ retaliation if EU restricts SpaceX’s access to European market — MeduzaU.S. Ambassador to the EU Andrew Puzder told the Financial Times that European companies would face “devastating” retaliation from Washington if Brussels moves forward with plans to restrict American ...

U.S. foreign policy is now nakedly tilted towards advancing oligarchic interests meduza.io/en/news/2026...

Anti-Corruption Data Collective reposted

nymag.comKirsten Gillibrand, Crypto’s Favorite DemocratThe senator says she set out to regulate a grift-y industry. Now, she’s in an ethical morass.

Gillibrand sees no issue with her 22-year-old son raising $30 million for his "crypto-inspired finance company", partly from people actively involved in the industry nymag.com/intelligence...

Anti-Corruption Data Collective reposted

edition.cnn.comBets on midterm endorsements, rallies and debates raise insider trading concerns | CNN PoliticsSuper-specific midterm “knowable” markets have attracted more than $20 million in trading volume, according to an analysis from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective.

Our new brief (covered by CNN) shows how easy it is for campaign staff to engage in insider trading "The Trump administration has embraced prediction companies and is finalizing federal regulations that would allow election markets to keep flourishing" edition.cnn.com/2026/10/09/p...

Our new Gambling on Democracy briefing examines the growing risk of insider trading on election prediction markets. “With support from regulators, prediction sites now offer an average of 44 granular markets tied to each individual race” - CNN edition.cnn.com/2026/10/09/p...

Anti-Corruption Data Collective reposted

I ran a deep dive on procurement records: companies linked to Don Jr.’s venture firm 1789 Capital have won $4.48B in obligations from civilian agencies since Election Day. Most of it is SpaceX’s long-running NASA work. But the company worth watching is Anduril 1/

Anti-Corruption Data Collective reposted

Outrageous self-dealing by the president. Just no constraints on his profit-seeking www.citizensforethics.org/reports-inve...

politico.comKalshi touts new transparency initiatives ahead of midtermsThe prediction market has seen rapid growth in election market trading volumes.

Kalshi has announced more context on its election markets: a small but welcome step in the right direction. Election markets will display an accuracy score, flag low-volume markets, and show individual trades in real time, the company said. www.politico.com/live-updates... @aidreit.bsky.social

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Applying these measures, Kalshi should take a broad definition of election markets (i.e. not just those on final race outcomes). Going further, it should remove the lowest volume markets and those on candidates with no realistic chance.

And, it should publish comprehensive data on election market accuracy, volume, concentration and number of traders. If election markets are consistently unreliable, it should not offer them. No one wants an election disinformation machine.

politico.comKalshi touts new transparency initiatives ahead of midtermsThe prediction market has seen rapid growth in election market trading volumes.

CNBC reports that markets with less than $10,000 traded will be tagged as low-volume. Our ongoing analysis suggests that the vast majority of markets on the congressional midterms would be tagged. acdatacollective.org/work/gamblin...

cnbc.comHow much does it cost to move a midterm prediction market? Not muchInterested parties could seek to move prediction markets to give a perceived boost to a candidate who is struggling to gain momentum or attention.

We've found that thinly traded, low-volume election markets are susceptible to price manipulation for a remarkably low cost. The new measures should help people viewing and citing market prices understand how reliable those prices are. www.cnbc.com/2026/09/09/p... @garrettdowns.bsky.social

@publiccitizen.bsky.social

Three years ago, cryptocurrency mixers were "an acute money laundering and national security concern," for FinCEN. Today, not so much. FinCEN Reverses Course on Cryptocurrency Mixing - ACAMS www.acams.org/en/news/finc...

acams.orgacams.org

Anti-Corruption Data Collective reposted

Public Citizen

OpenAI President Greg Brockman gave $12.5 MILLION to Trump's MAGA super PAC. Trump's admin announced a joint venture to invest billions into AI infrastructure. Palantir CEO Alexander Karp gave $1 million. Trump's admin has given Palantir major contracts. This is oligarchy.

theguardian.comWe’re not in a new Gilded Age in America: inequality is now far worse | Casey MichelToday’s wealth gap is much bigger, and the country’s richest have much more power than they once did. It’s an Age of Oligarchy

“Thanks to the proliferation of everything from anonymous shell companies to perpetual trusts, these wealthiest forces can now mask their riches from any investigators, regulators, journalists and others – and entrench the kind of aristocracy Americans have long chafed against.”

Casey Michel@cjcmichel.bsky.social

We're not in a new Gilded Age. We're in something worse. My latest at @theguardian.com on how US wealth inequality has now blasted past anything we've seen before, and how we've now entered the Age of Oligarchy. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Anti-Corruption Data Collective reposted

PPLAAF

@pplaaf.bsky.social

#Nigeria🇳🇬: Dig deeper into Dirty Deeds! Explore @pplaaf.bsky.social’s dedicated website for our investigative report to learn more about the names behind the deeds, their associates, and the details of their properties here ➡️ www.pplaaf.org/dirty-deeds-...

pplaaf.orgDirty Deeds | Nigerian Officials US Properties InvestigationDirty Deeds is a PPLAAF investigation into how top Nigerian officials bought a piece of America through US real estate.

Anti-Corruption Data Collective reposted

premiumtimesng.com61 Nigerian officials linked to $271 million US property holdings -ReportThe investigation examined how wealth linked to Nigerian political and economic elites moved into the US real estate market and identified recurring risk factors in the acquisition of the properties.

At @acdatacollective.bsky.social we helped uncover how 61 current and former Nigerian officials purchased over $271 million, mostly using cash Money laundering in US real estate has to gets back towards the top of the anti-corruption agenda www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlin...

youtu.beDirty Deeds: How Top Nigerian Officials Bought a Piece of America | @pplaafYouTube video by PPLAAF

22 Sept

Thrilled with this collaboration with @pplaaf.bsky.social! The report launched today details 284 US properties, collectively worth nearly $271 million, linked to 61 current and former high-level Nigerian officials, many of whom are implicated in corruption scandals.

PPLAAF@pplaaf.bsky.social

1/ #Nigeria 🇳🇬: Today, @PPLAAF is launching the exclusive investigative report "Dirty Deeds: How Top Nigerian Officials Bought a Piece of America" from Abuja.

Anti-Corruption Data Collective reposted

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

@thebulletin.org

17 Sept

"Prediction markets are creating new nightmares for operational security," write @szakonyi.bsky.social, Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, and Michael Hornsby. They allow those with inside information to bet on national security issues, all while giving both allies and adversaries a possible heads-up.

buff.lyInsiders are betting on war: How prediction markets are becoming a national security threatPrediction markets allow those with insider information bet on national security issues, giving adversaries a potential heads-up.

Anti-Corruption Data Collective reposted

Nick Schwellenbach

@schwellenbach.bsky.social

17 Sept

worth a read... by the @acdatacollective.bsky.social crew thebulletin.org/2026/09/insi...

thebulletin.orgInsiders are betting on war: How prediction markets are becoming a national security threatPrediction markets allow those with insider information bet on national security issues, giving adversaries a potential heads-up.

Anti-Corruption Data Collective reposted

11 Sept

For less than $100, you can move the entire odds of most midterm election markets on Kalshi or Polymarket by $0.05 (or 5%). So if a candidate is at 40%, your small bet by itself could move them to 45% Any bettor can artificially help a campaign look more popular than it actually is

9 Sept

Turns out, prediction markets are a surprisingly cheap to way to game the attention economy to benefit political candidates. Out latest analysis in @cnbc.com www.cnbc.com/2026/09/09/p...

9 Sept

🔵 NEW FROM ACDC 97% of midterm prediction markets on the three big platforms can be moved 5 cents for under the maximum personal campaign contribution of $3500. Where a single user has already moved the price, the price usually did not snap back within 24 hours.

acdatacollective.orgGambling on Democracy – ACDC

9 Sept

Download our full analysis of price moving vulnerabilities on the 2026 midterms from the Gambling on Democracy dashboard! acdatacollective.org/work/gamblin...

washingtonpost.com$900 million from a canceled wind deal will benefit a Trump donorThe Trump administration’s latest deal to abandon offshore wind projects and boost investment in fossil fuels is set to deliver a windfall to a private equity firm run by one of President Donald Trump...

7 Sept

German energy giant RWE takes $1.2B federal payout to abandon U.S. offshore wind projects. RWE then buys $900M stake in Louisana LNG from PE firm Stonepeak, whose CEO and co-founder is a big Trump donor.

ft.comTrump-linked companies race to secure deals for Venezuela’s oilAppointees, a donor and a recent administration official are among those capitalising on US control of beleaguered energy sector

4 Sept

A major Trump donor, a former administration official, and the CEO of Trump's media company are all working on projects in Venezuela, per @financialtimes.com America's new oligarchs are at it again. www.ft.com/content/939e...

Anti-Corruption Data Collective reposted

3 Sept

Europe's top court just ruled you can't see who owns a company without proving "legitimate interest" first We're going backward in the fight against corruption

Stephen Abbott Pugh@stephenabbottpugh.bsky.social

"EU law does not require the disclosure of information relating to all shareholders of public limited liability companies, including minority shareholders" - the Jautiva judgment from the Court of Justice of the European Union is out curia.europa.eu/site/upload/... @eucourtofjustice.bsky.social

washingtonpost.comPoll shows nearly 90% of Americans believe government corruption is widespreadAmericans have the highest level of distrust in their government in two decades, voicing bipartisan frustration with the country's institutions and the people who run them.

2 Sept

“There is a broad base consensus for the fact that something is broken in Washington” @szakonyi.bsky.social

David Szakonyi@szakonyi.bsky.social

Trump's corruption is getting through to the general public, and they are not happy www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

Anti-Corruption Data Collective reposted

reuters.comThe new kingmakers: Crypto, AI and betting firms fuel record spending on the 2026 midtermsA handful of billionaires and companies are driving corporate spending in U.S. midterm elections this year, and they aren’t the usual power brokers who have sat atop the political food chain in Washin...

27 Aug

"Among industries, the crypto industry still leads as the biggest corporate donor to U.S. elections, followed by online betting and AI in 2026. Together they accounted for more than half of all company donations, at $344 million, Public Citizen found." www.reuters.com/legal/legali...

Anti-Corruption Data Collective reposted

Transparency International

@anticorruption.bsky.social

28 Aug

As Pacific Islands Forum Leaders gather in Palau next week ahead of #COP31, the region has an opportunity to demonstrate strong climate leadership, ensuring climate decisions are guided by integrity and reaffirming its commitment to protecting our people and future generations. ⬇️🧵

youtu.beDid Crypto Bettors Leak U.S. Military Secrets?YouTube video by FOX News Podcasts

28 Aug

David Szakonyi joins the Fox News Rundown Podcast to talk about prediction market betting on war and elections. “Maybe we shouldn’t be betting on lives and shouldn’t be betting on military matters” @szakonyi.bsky.social

Anti-Corruption Data Collective reposted

pogo.orgNo SEC Probe of Trump Crypto Deal Despite Alleged "Illegality"In matters involving the president and cryptocurrency, some experts say the Securities and Exchange Commission has abandoned its mission of protecting investors.

25 Aug

The SEC cannot locate a single investigative record for a company that handed the president's crypto venture $750m and then fell 90% www.pogo.org/investigates...

youtu.beUS military secrets traded on Polymarket can tip off enemies: Report | Jesse Weber LiveYouTube video by NewsNation

26 Aug

ACDC recently explained to NewsNation how military insider trading on Polymarket can broadcast signals of upcoming military operations. 📺 Watch the full segment here

26 Aug

We’ve identified over 150 wallets betting in Polymarket’s war markets in patterns that match the profile of likely insider traders. www.reuters.com/business/fin...

Anti-Corruption Data Collective reposted

reuters.comEXCLUSIVE: Binance gave Moscow client details used to charge Russian over Ukraine donations, documents showBinance last year handed Russian authorities details of cryptocurrency donations to Ukrainian fundraising campaigns that were used as evidence to bring terrorism financing charges against a Russian IT...

Yet another story about how Binance helps dictators, especially U.S. adversaries "Binance was under no obligation to provide the data, having quit Russia, and may in fact have had an obligation not to provide it under European Union data protection law" www.reuters.com/legal/govern...

edition.cnn.comPolymarket referred dozens of possible military insider trading cases to DOJ, source says | CNN PoliticsThe prediction site Polymarket referred dozens of accounts that showed signs of potential military insider trading to the Justice Department for investigation, a senior company official told CNN.

21 Aug

Asked about our latest report, Polymarket appears to confirm the scale of the military insider trading problem, telling @marshall-cohen.bsky.social @cnn.com that it had previously referred “dozens” of the accounts we flagged to the DoJ. edition.cnn.com/2026/08/21/p...

22 Aug

Instead of playing whack-a-mole, Polymarket could simply not offer markets on military events. All the platforms could remove markets on government actions and elections. No one actually needs prediction markets.

More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds - @reuters.com www.reuters.com/business/fin...

acdatacollective.orgClassifying Insider Trading Risk: Analyzing the Longshot Betting Ecosystem on Polymarket – ACDC

Download our latest analysis of insider trading risks on the world's largets prediction market platform here: acdatacollective.org/work/classif...

acdatacollective.orgClassifying Insider Trading Risk: Analyzing the Longshot Betting Ecosystem on Polymarket – ACDC

Our latest report examines the ecosystem of longshot bettors on Polymarket, separating the most likely insiders from market whales and automated trading. Thanks to @reuters.com for the write-up below. acdatacollective.org/work/classif...

Reuters@reuters.com

EXCLUSIVE: More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds reut.rs/4wG3kml

reut.rsEXCLUSIVE: More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research findsMore than 150 wallets on Polymarket International may have traded on inside U.S. military information, attracting copycat bets and raising concerns that the market could broadcast signals exploitable by foreign adversaries, according to research published on Thursday.

🗳️ On Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US, tens of milions of dollars are being bet on the US congressional midterm elections in November. 💵 Three months before election day, betting volume has already exceeded the 2024 cycle. But, just 1% of users control 68% of the volume on Polymarket. 🧵

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Trading, however, is concentrated in a few high-profile races. This means the majority of markets are still extremely thin and small - low volumes of trading, and few wallets. Small bets move the price in most markets.

acdatacollective.orgGambling on Democracy – ACDC

These are the first US congressional elections since prediction markets became mainstream. Prices should be taken with a huge pinch of salt. Visit our new Gambling on Democracy dashboard to download full analysis, and stay tuned for updates and new editions. acdatacollective.org/work/gamblin...

The number of markets opened on congressional elections has exploded. There are already 16 times as many as there were in 2024. This means more granular, niche questions on outcomes like primaries, margins, turnout, speeches and endorsements.

pogo.orgPrediction Markets Are a National Security RiskProfit motives created by prediction markets incentivize trading on military information for personal gain, potentially compromising national security.

11 Aug

“Further, the Anti-Corruption Data Collective also found that contracts related to the military and defense were an outlier, having a disproportionately high rate of success in long-shot bets.”

Project On Government Oversight@pogo.org

Prediction markets are a major risk for conflicts of interest. Not only that-- they're a serious national security risk. Our experts break it down for you: