Jennifer Lang

actuarialeye.comWhat did I read in 2025?I’ve just published my annual reading list for 2025 here, (a little late, but its still January!) as I’ve done for over a decade. Do check out the whole thing, but here are a few of my particular h…

7 Feb

I’ve published my annual reading list for 2025 here, as I’ve done for over a decade. Do check out the whole thing, but here are a few of my particular highlights from this year’s books, which, as always, are a bit of an eclectic mixture.https://actuarialeye.com/2026/01/26/what-did-i-read-in-2025/

Jennifer Lang reposted

Political Gadgets

@politicalgadgets.bsky.social

7 Feb

We've literally been working on this for years. Our new database of politicians declared interests is now live. Want to know who has accepted hospitality from Sportsbet, or is a member of a gun club... politicalgadgets.com/Interests/db...

content.actuaries.asn.aucontent.actuaries.asn.au

The Actuaries Institute of Australia recently published our review of mortality in 2024, which you can find here. content.actuaries.asn.au/resources/re.... A quick summary of our major conclusions #thread.

Worldwide mortality experience since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2024) shows excess deaths over that period in almost every country measured. Australia (+6%) was below average, and New Zealand (+0.1%) the lowest we measured.

In our view, the “new normal” level of mortalitywill continue to improve, but we expect it to stay above the pre-pandemic trend for some time. Our baseline prediction for 2025 implies that the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a three-year pause in mortality improvement. #ends

content.actuaries.asn.aucontent.actuaries.asn.au

Covid-19 mortality was at a similar level in 2024 as 2023, contrary to our prediction of a reduction in mortality rates.

Mortality rates from other causes were quite mixed compared with previous years, with other respiratory diseases (eg pneumonia +10%) and lower respiratory conditions (+5%) higher than anticipated, and deaths from cancer (-2%) and ischaemic heart disease (-3%) lower than the baseline.

content.actuaries.asn.aucontent.actuaries.asn.au

We predicted that overall mortality in Australia would return to the levels of improvement we'd seen before Covid-19. Actual mortality was slightly higher than that (0.4%), but not materially.

You can see a very high level view of mortality rates over the last decade in this graph, which shows the standardised (for age and sex) mortality rate in each calendar year since 2015.

actuarialeye.comClimate change and Mortality – what can we expect?In Australia, the number of deaths per annum is likely to increase by around 1% by 2030 up to 7% by the end of this century due to global heating. The extra deaths will mostly be at older age group…

I've written a new blog post about Climate change and mortality in Australia actuarialeye.com/2025/11/10/c...

There's a whole lot of caveats around this - we could mitigate the worst experience - but there will also be other causes of death not counted here, like bushfire pollution, natural disasters, and increased tropical disasters.

Bottom line is, increased global heating caused by climate change is and will be directly bad for human health and mortality, as well as all the other impacts on our world.

I've written a new blog post about Climate change and mortality in Australia actuarialeye.com/2025/11/10/c...

The research I found, from Our World in Data, shows that in the hotter months, Australia is already getting around 0.6% extra deaths every summer due to climate change related heatwaves, or 300-350 extra deaths.

Further research (repackaged by Our World In data) concluded that heat related deaths would increase by 7.68 per 100,000 people by 2030, 20.39 by 2050, and 49.93 by 2090. that’s an increased death rate of 1%, 3% and 7% in 2030, 2050 and 2090 respectively.

I've written a new blog post about Climate change and mortality in Australia actuarialeye.com/2025/11/10/c...

The extra deaths will mostly be at older age groups, and among those who find it harder to shelter from heat. There are likely to be other climate related reasons death rates will increase – extra pollution from fires, more tropical diseases, natural disasters not included in this number.

Most deaths in heatwaves don't mention heat on the certificate. You probably pictured someone passing out from heat stroke. But this is not how most people die from “heat”. They die from conditions such as cardiovascular or kidney disease, respiratory infections, or diabetes.

I've written a new blog post about Climate change and mortality in Australia actuarialeye.com/2025/11/10/c...

In Australia, the number of deaths per annum is likely to increase by around 1% by 2030 up to 7% by the end of this century due to global heating.

The Mortality Working Group of the Actuaries Institute (Australia) has just released our analysis of mortality for the first 11 months of 2024. Total mortality was 1% higher than predicted, almost all because Covid-19 was higher than we predicted. #thread

actuaries.digitalExcess Mortality: Considerations in Moving Away from a Pre-pandemic Baseline - Actuaries DigitalThe Mortality Working Group is planning to make a significant change to the baseline (or expected number of deaths) used when measuring excess mortality for Australia.The Working Group intends to move...

Our projected deaths were calculated using 2023 mortality rates as a starting point, with long term rates of improvements from non respiratory causes, the same mortality rates for respiratory diseases as 2023, and an assumption of reduced deaths from Covid-19. www.actuaries.digital/2024/04/24/e...

actuaries.digitalCOVID-19 Deaths the Key Driver for 2024 Excess Mortality to November - Actuaries DigitalIn their latest article, the Mortality Working Group shares excess mortality analysis for the first 11 months of 20224.

The full analysis is shown here. /ends www.actuaries.digital/2025/03/20/c...

For other causes of death, respiratory deaths (excluding Covid-19) were 7% higher than predicted, with five times as many deaths from Covid-19 as from influenza. Deaths from cancer wwere 2% lower than predicted.

The table below shows all major causes of deaths for the eleven months to November 2024, with the overall picture showing 1,400 more deaths than our prediction, all of which is explained by the extra deaths from Covid-19.

The next graph shows the pattern of deaths from Covid-19 in 2024 compared with 2023, also showing the 2023 waves shifted to be at the same time as 2024 to make the comparison easier to see.

The overall pattern of mortality for the year is shown in this graph, with almost all weeks within the 95% prediction interval, but winter deaths generally higher than projected.

We projected mortality for 2024 to include two waves of Covid-19, both lower than 2023, and all other mortality to be an improvement on 2023 (using the same trends as the last few years). Instead, Covid-19 has led to about the same level of deaths as it did in 2023 so far. 2/x

transjustice.org.auProtect Trans Youth National Day of ActionProtect Trans Youth National Day of Action Join the National Day of Action

This graph shows the Covid deaths from and with Covid-19 for 2022, 2023 and 2024, and our predicted level of deaths from Covid-19 during 2024. We had projected two waves of Covid-19 during 2024, both lower than 2023, but instead they were fairly similar.

Jennifer Lang reposted

Emily Mayo

@emilymayo.bsky.social

30 Jan 2025

Protect Trans Youth - National Day of Action across Australia Sat Feb 8. See the events and ways to participate here (via @transjusticeau.bsky.social) - transjustice.org.au/youth/

actuarialeye.comWhat did I read in 2024?I’ve just published my annual reading list for 2024, as I’ve done for over a decade. Do check out the whole thing, but here are a few of my particular favourites from this year’s list, which, as al…

I’ve just published my annual reading list for 2024, as I’ve done for over a decade. Do check out the whole thing, but here are a few of my particular favourites from this year’s list, which, as always, is a bit of an eclectic mixture. actuarialeye.com/2025/01/13/w...

And my fiction highlight this year was The City and the City, by China Miéville. I found this book via all the city builders I’ve been following on social media, yet it is fiction. It is a police procedural set in two cities in the same geographical space, separated, but yet intertwined.

actuarialeye.com2024 ReadingAs has become tradition over a surprising number of years (this is the 15th!), every year I post a list of all the non fiction books I read the previous year. I do also read fiction, but posting al…

I've written up my full list of non fiction for 2024 here - I love looking back on a year's reading to understand what was occupying my mind. actuarialeye.com/books/2024-r...

I read a lot about cities this year - this was the best. Age of the City, by Ian Goldin and Tom Lee-Devlin This book is a broad history of the city, and why urbanisation continues to be an unstoppable force around the planet. It finishes by suggesting ways of improving any city.

I love a good general history - this was my favourite this year. How the World made the West, by Josephine Quinn Quinn wrote this book to refute the idea that the only early societies worth studying to explain our own are the ancient Greeks and Romans. It's also a fascinating history on its own.

My favourite: How Big Things Get Done, by Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner Flyvbjerg and his coauthor Gardner use their experience and analysis of all decades of projects to take out a pithy set of lessons about how best to make big projects work as intended.

actuaries.digitalMortality in First Eight Months of 2024 2% Higher Than Predicted - Actuaries DigitalIn their latest article, the Mortality Working Group shares excess mortality analysis for the first eight months of 2024. In summary For the first eight months of 2024, against a baseline that include...

The Mortality Working Group of the Actuaries Institute (Australia) has just released our analysis of mortality for the first eight months of 2024. Total mortality was 2% higher than predicted, almost all because Covid-19 was higher than we predicted. #thread www.actuaries.digital/2024/12/17/m...

The table shows that mortality from Covid-19 and respiratory diseases have all been above our predicted levels for the year to August, while deaths from most other diseases have been slightly below our prediction. 5/x

Covid-19 continues to be a significant new source of mortality in the Australian population, with no signs that Covid-19 deaths are replacing deaths from other causes. Deaths from Covid-19 in the year to August 2024 were five times the number of deaths from flu. /ends

Other deaths from respiratory illnesses have also been worse than expected, with all other mortality in line with predictions to date. 3/x

Total deaths from all causes have, in aggregate, been higher than our prediction in the 8 months to August 2024. Actual weekly deaths have nearly always been within the 95% confidence interval. However, most weeks in June, July and August were above the prediction. 4/x

Jennifer Lang reposted

Karen Cutter

@karencutter.bsky.social

17 Dec 2024

The Australian actuaries Mortality Working Group has released excess mortality estimates for the first eight months of 2024. www.actuaries.digital/2024/12/17/m...

COVID-19 remains a major killer in Australia in 2024, despite a drop in deaths in July, according to our latest analysis at the Actuaries Institute’s mortality committee.

Our graph shows the waves of actual and projected deaths from and with Covid since December 2021 in Australia

The Mortality Working Group’s next analysis, to be published later this month, will show how COVID-19 developed during August and will update the year-to-date excess mortality statistics.

COVID-19 remains a major killer in Australia in 2024, despite a drop in deaths in July, according to our latest analysis at the Actuaries Institute’s mortality committee.

More than 2,800 Australians have died from COVID-19 in the first seven months of 2024, 1,200 (71%) higher than anticipated, and more than predicted for the whole year. The wave of COVID-19 deaths that began in Australia in May started to abate in July.