Carlos Algara

Terrific to see my @claremontgraduateu.bsky.social Fall 2023 independent study being highlighted. We developed a unified model of U.S. elections from theory to estimation/forecasting--resulting in a @pspolisci.bsky.social piece: tinyurl.com/rarx8txk Fun collaboration! www.cgu.edu/news/2025/04...

We're incredibly proud that not one but two articles in @pspolisci.bsky.social's special issue on forecasting the midterm elections make use of The Downballot's data! One on special elections by @charlesrhunt.com, and another by @algaraca.bsky.social et al. using presidential results by district.

Excited our 2026 midterm forecast is in print w/ @isaachale.bsky.social , Seon, & @edwardheadington.bsky.social Updated quarterly approval & generic ballot series (1937–) predicts clear Dem House, v. narrow GOP Senate. With @the-downballot.com data, we flag potential post-Callais votes-seats bias.

Many thanks to @mattgrossmann.bsky.social for having me on the @niskanencenter.bsky.social #ScienceofPolitics podcast to talk '26 midterms for the U.S. Senate & House! TLDR; battleground looks expanded for Senate Democrats compared to year ago thanks to candidate recruitment efforts. Take a listen!

New article by @algaraca.bsky.social, Byengseon Bae, @edwardheadington.bsky.social, Hengjiang Liu, Bianca Nigri and Lisette Gomez uses presidential approval, party brands and polling gaps to forecast 2024 U.S. elections, improving on standard models. Read more: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Now that the 2025 cycle is complete, fun to look ahead to the 2026 midterms in the U.S. Senate. Fun talking with @nationaljournal.com on the state of play for the Senate majority in 2026 & even 2028. TLDR; Democratic majority might be a two-cycle project. www.nationaljournal.com/s/730098/sen...

What an incredible public good and contribution!

For public policy scholars: JPIPE published our article that uses machine learning to code the universe of congressional and state legislative data since 2009 by the Comparative Agenda Project policy codes. That's 1.68 million bills. OPEN-ACCESS here: www.nowpublishers.com/article/Deta...

Terrific to see this new research note out w/ @djsimmons.bsky.social @isaachale.bsky.social in @repjournal.bsky.social

Great to be featured in this @nytimes.com piece highlighting incredible continuation of partisan continuity in county-level voting patterns during the 2024 elections. Also neat to see our @electoralstudies.bsky.social data used for terrific data viz for public use. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Congratulations to Senator Thune, the U.S. Senate’s Majority Leader in the 119th Congress. Thune (2002) joins esteemed company w/LBJ (1941), Howard Baker (1964), & Harry Reid (1974) as Senate Majority Leaders that lost their first Senate election. There’s a life lesson there!

Excited to see work w/@edwardheadington.bsky.social & others using new data on party & POTUS brands since 1938 to predict 2024 elexs at POTUS & congressional levels out @pspolisci.bsky.social! Project stemmed from independent study w/talented CGU students; neat experience! 🔗 tinyurl.com/37242ppc

Excited to share new work in the Journal of Political Marketing w/terrific grad student Seon Bae. Using 1900-2022 data on *both* House & Senate; we find candidate quality & incumbency continues bicameral decline in salience but amateurs might've cost McConnell the majority. 🔗 tinyurl.com/ykxne95c

Interesting new poll on the mass public's approval of the U.S. Congress...but is 8% the new "normal?" Nope, looks like the chaos in theHouse might be drawing congressional approval to *historic* lows according to universe of polling from 1974-2022. 8% approval is the third lowest ever recorded!

Great opportunity for first post on BlueSky! Excited to have an article in this Electoral Studies special issue on comparative Affective Polarization w/my good buddy @roizur.bsky.social . Check out all the neat comparative work on measurement, parties, and role of policy in AP!