Gonçalo Pina

Other retail government debt

É sempre péssimo, mas é a minha penitência para acompanhar o que os nossos líderes pensam. Esta semana uma das comentadoras está lá como "jovem". pca.st/episode/4f77...

I am presenting a new project on Friday. Not quite sure there is a paper here but always wanted to check it out (hence the submission to a workshop, now the painful work). A thread on runs into retail government debt, and what they say about bank deposits. 1/End #Econsky

So this alternative savings with ~100% pass-through to Euribor did not do much to Portuguese banks during the big run (shaded). Here is a synthetic control:

I am presenting a new project on Friday. Not quite sure there is a paper here but always wanted to check it out (hence the submission to a workshop, now the painful work). A thread on runs into retail government debt, and what they say about bank deposits. 1/End #Econsky

But against the stock of deposits, the runs are small. Perhaps surprisingly small? About €80bn of term deposits stayed put at 0.1 to 1.3% while the certificate paid up to 3.5%. (the limits to borrowing were not immediately hit) Banks certainly did not seem to respond to this:

I am presenting a new project on Friday. Not quite sure there is a paper here but always wanted to check it out (hence the submission to a workshop, now the painful work). A thread on runs into retail government debt, and what they say about bank deposits. 1/End #Econsky

They respond: here are gross certificate subscriptions regressed on the spread. Each percentage point of spread raises monthly subscriptions of the certificate by about 150%.

I am presenting a new project on Friday. Not quite sure there is a paper here but always wanted to check it out (hence the submission to a workshop, now the painful work). A thread on runs into retail government debt, and what they say about bank deposits. 1/End #Econsky

Here are the different rates available to people. The flat parts are the caps. The average rate on new one-year household deposits stayed below 0.5% until the end of 2022. If you are checking the formula, note that the certificate follows the previous month Euribor (so that different is =1 in lags).

I am presenting a new project on Friday. Not quite sure there is a paper here but always wanted to check it out (hence the submission to a workshop, now the painful work). A thread on runs into retail government debt, and what they say about bank deposits. 1/End #Econsky

People in Portugal can simply subscribe to state-guaranteed certificates, redeemable after three months, taxed like a deposit, on sale every day at the post office or online (up to a limit). The base rate is a formula linked to 3-month Euribor. A "deposit" with automatic ~100% pass-through!

I am presenting a new project on Friday. Not quite sure there is a paper here but always wanted to check it out (hence the submission to a workshop, now the painful work). A thread on runs into retail government debt, and what they say about bank deposits. 1/End #Econsky

Actually, this administration does start to look like a very dumb, very stupid version of the french revolution

Master Programme application season has started (earlier than last year?). It is a ridiculous amount of work for everyone involved and we should have a centralized system, but some places are worse than others. Maybe this year I will rate them: Imperial College London: minimalist 8/10.

Listening to this and I have to go back to an old take: www.economist.com/insider/the-... 1:1 interviews with politicians are simply not productive. Put Alice Weidel (+ team if needed) in front of a panel of journalists that will push back on any factual mistake or ridiculous claim.