Alex Luck

Alex Luck

@alxluck.bsky.social

Chinese Military. Bundeswehr/NATO. MA Pol Sci/History. Cats, dogs, motorcycles. Überbringer schlechter Nachrichten. Analysis@ NavalNews.com. Contributor@ hartpunkt.de. Previous articles at FPRI.org.

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Canadian experiences on specifying, then changing the River-class should serve as a lesson to others on not repeating the same mistakes. The most obvious case being Germany with F127. Especially now that cost estimates cause political concerns. www.navalnews.com/features/202...

navalnews.comCanada pivots River-class Destroyer combat system to Aegis and MOTS solutions to reduce program riskCanada updates its River Class Destroyer combat system design, replacing custom gear with Aegis and Type 26 MOTS solutions to curb risk.

Procurement timelines for western navies starved of funding & recapitalisation for decades now mean that lengthy & costly "adaptions" are unlikely to succeed. The reality is most services need materiel yesterday. They can buy American or French, with little to nothing in between.

In order to change this problem of binary choices relevant defence ministries need to pursue adaption and development in parallel to active procurement addressing force deficits in the near term. The glass remains half empty on defence bureaucracies being capable tackling both.

After several decades of discontinued use Bundeswehr intends to acquire new troposcatter communication systems, in a highly portable configuration enabling broadband transmissions up to 60 km. Framework contract to cover low three digit number of sets. www.hartpunkt.de/satellitenun...

hartpunkt.deSatellitenunabhängige Kommunikation: Tragbare Troposcatter-Systeme sollen TaWAN ergänzenFür die Führung von Truppenverbänden benötigen die Streitkräfte Kommunikationsmöglichkeiten, die sowohl Sprach- als auch Datenaustausch über weite Distanzen zuverlässig ermöglichen. Bislang sollte die...

Bundeswehr tactical comms presently rely primarily on satellite or line of sight-systems. Troposcatter devices can cover tactically relevant ranges up to a few hundred km depending on power and bandwith requirements. Older systems were in widespread use during the Cold War.

Bundeswehr personnel figures released for September. Despite an official narrative (by Pistorius) of the service in October including "more than 190,000" troops September figure is 186,200, a minor reduction from August (186,356). Via "Augen Geradeaus"/@wiegold.de: augengeradeaus.net/2026/10/pers...

Obviously it will be interesting to see how Bundeswehr is accounting for the required dramatic jump in October. As the linked account notes, BMVg for September is already engaging in some questionable revision of statistics, providing rounded figures incl several errors.

New image of recently launched new PLAN auxiliary in the upper reaches of the Pearl River in Guangzhou. I suspect this is near the Huangpu yard on Changzhou. This image should put any speculation about the original footage being AI generated to rest. Via "ACuriousPLAFan"/SDF.

Alex Luck@alxluck.bsky.social

Following the appearance of another suspected Chinese mothership for submerged payloads in Guangzhou I have put down some preliminary observations on what we know and can tell about its characteristics for @navalnews.com: www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...

The Royal Navy intends to procure a LUSV demonstrator vessel in 2027 for testing & evaluation covering a duration of four years. Recall that the First Sea Lord Gwyn Jenkins at DSEI 2025 claimed first drone escorts will sail with RN warships within two years. www.navylookout.com/royal-navy-t...

navylookout.comRoyal Navy to trial its first Large Uncrewed Surface Vessel next year - Navy LookoutThe MoD is close to placing a contract for a large uncrewed surface vessel (LUSV) that will be in the water next year as an early test of the RN’s Hybrid Navy concept. The demonstrator is the first ha...

The drone in question will be contractor-owned, ie not be RN property, and is strictly a test platform serving for basic autonomy experimentation, followed by gradual integration of RN payloads. The goals here remain exceedingly modest, reflecting the immature state of large USV development.

Looks like Naval Group will show a new large surface combatant concept (presumably an AAW or multirole DDG) at Euronaval this year. Source NG X-account.

Germany is purchasing Seahawk DS 30 mm weapon stations by British manufacturer MSI Defence Systems for installation on future F128 frigates. The move follows a previous order for upgrading F123B frigates. My coverage for @navalnews.com: www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...

navalnews.comFuture German F128 Frigates To Receive MSI Seahawk Light GunsA contract notification reveals that the German Navy has selected light gun systems by British company MSI to equip its new F128 frigates.

Unusual view at a PLAN Zubr-class LCAC aka Type 728 China has acquired two Zubr from (then) Ukrainian builder PO More by 2014, followed by two more built in China using Ukrainian parts. Two indigenously produced units followed by 2023, and three or more since then. Image via Wb.

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Incidentally, COMEC (then GSI) did not originally produce the PRC-assembled Zubr. These originate at the Huangpu Wenchong-yard further upstream, which also builds FFG etc. We can tell as much from matching relevant imagery to the configuration in its production halls before 2021.

This arrangement may well have changed since, I cannot tell from available imagery. While the Huangpu facility in question has extended their production hall, COMEC recently has also been very busy producing new materiel, incl most recently the suspected UUV mothership. /end

Unusual view at a PLAN Zubr-class LCAC aka Type 728 China has acquired two Zubr from (then) Ukrainian builder PO More by 2014, followed by two more built in China using Ukrainian parts. Two indigenously produced units followed by 2023, and three or more since then. Image via Wb.

In imagery from several months ago (possibly earlier) showing the COMEC yard in Guangzhou we can see at least five PLAN Zubr in the configuration produced since 2023. How do we know these are the newer variant, and not the older type? I'm so glad you asked.

Unlike the Ukrainian-produced/supplied version the newer LCAC all feature CIWS mounted further forward, in addition to a modified mast and different arrangement of the superstructure fittings ahead of the bridge. Elements visible on the units in Guangzhou match the newer version.

For what its worth, this statement by Xinhua does not refer to the "real" third generation of nuclear powered submarines for China, which are the Type 095 and Type 096. The meaning relates to a Type 094A having launched a JL-3 SLBM as part of the test in July (and not a JL-2, as widely suspected).

Sense Hofstede@sensehofstede.nl

Bloomberg: Xinhua confirms China’s PLA used its most advanced nuclear submarines to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile in the Pacific earlier this year – ‘a picture of the missile test in July which demonstrated the sea-based leg of China’s nuclear triad’

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IISS in February first reported that Bohai has resumed Type 094A production. So it remains to be seen whether these (at least two, according to the release) new boats feature further improvements, along lines of the Type 093B SSN (which may be considered a gen 2/gen 3-hybrid from a tech POV.

Even if such were the case, like with Type 093B they wouldnt be brand-new designs. The distinction is based on a much larger hull diameter for Type 095, which results in an entirely different internal layout (propulsion, signature reduction etc). Similar to how a Flt III 688i is not a Seawolf. /end

For what its worth, this statement by Xinhua does not refer to the "real" third generation of nuclear powered submarines for China, which are the Type 095 and Type 096. The meaning relates to a Type 094A having launched a JL-3 SLBM as part of the test in July (and not a JL-2, as widely suspected).

Sense Hofstede@sensehofstede.nl

Bloomberg: Xinhua confirms China’s PLA used its most advanced nuclear submarines to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile in the Pacific earlier this year – ‘a picture of the missile test in July which demonstrated the sea-based leg of China’s nuclear triad’

The distinction matters, because while newer Type 094 SSBN undoubtedly feature technological improvements, they are still tied to older "gen 2"-development. Meanwhile no Type 096 got launched to date. Launches of Type 095 SSN did occur, but they are not operational yet.

Imagery from the Australian Defence announcement at the Anduril factory in Sydney yesterday. Note in particular the Rheinmetall Asteria sea mine in the background. Mining was always the most plausible offensive use of Ghost Shark. All images via Defence media site.

Meanwhile, launch of UAVs including OWA drones would plausibly fill the "strike" requirement regularly mentioned for Ghost Shark. Using an UAV would ensure human in the loop and would not rely on any sensor feeds to and from the submerged UUV before launch and targeting.

New PLAN Type 052D DDG with hull number 111, associated with the NTC. Previous hull numbers in this range were all associated with Type 055 DDG (101-110), with four more 055 still to be commissioned. Image via Wb/source watermarked.

Alex Luck reposted

I will also note there was some immediate debate over whether the images were real. This, alas, is now part and parcel of this work, requiring significant work in checking provenance, and even then there is margin for error, and it will only get more difficult going forward.

A second hull of the curious new auxiliary recently launched for PLAN at Hudong in Shanghai has now appeared in Guangzhou, presumably launched by COMEC (former GSI), which builds a wide range of naval auxiliaries for the Chinese Navy.

Worth noting there are several differences between the two vessels. So I need to correct "identical", they are apparently different designs for a similar purpose.

Underrated aspect in related discussions: dramatic expansion of PLAN blue water capability will impose severe operational strain on neighbouring navies for "basic" but vital duties such as maritime surveillance. Drones will only help to an extent. www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/10...

japantimes.co.jpKoizumi says China carrier drills in Pacific highlight Japan’s ‘limited’ surveillance capabilitiesThe Japanese defense chief said strengthening the nation’s defense posture on its Pacific flank is an “urgent task.”

Similar dynamics were apparent when the Chinese flotilla circumnavigated Australia back in 2024/25, putting a certain amount of strain on AU & NZ consistently deploying assets to observe. This challenge grows by orders of magnitude in what I dub the Chinese near abroad.

A relatively sober assessment of the various factors driving Korean ambitions operating SSN as part of RoKN. Despite recent modernisation the DPRK angle remains IMO overstated. But SSN are undeniably a far more flexible asset that can fill several needs. www.usni.org/magazines/pr...

usni.orgWhy South Korea Wants an SSNWith its own class of nuclear-powered attack submarines, the ROK Navy would be more operationally independent. It would also be a stronger and more versatile ally.

Unsurprisingly the IMO confused and contradictory idea of acquiring MQ-28A Ghost Bat for Luftwaffe is dead. Generally speaking, the Luftwaffe requirement for a Loyal Wingman-style CCA drone remains out of touch with technical realities of efforts in the field to date. www.welt.de/politik/deut...

welt.deAufrüstung der Bundeswehr: Rückschlag für Pistorius – warum der eilige „Ghost-Bat“-Plan scheitert - WELTDie Bundeswehr soll bald mit unbemannten Kampfjets Ziele tief im feindlichen Gebiet angreifen können. Doch der schnelle Kauf australischer Drohnen platzt. Nun drohen Verzögerungen – womöglich über Jah...
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The technical/operational requirement on CCA is not as well defined as often claimed. NATO doesnt (AFAIK) issue a direct requirement. Finally, an increasing number of German defence companies, both legacy and start-up, compete for a piece of the growing defence budget.

Therefore efforts such as this are prone to result in confused "programs" inviting a wide variety of claimed or factual products, resulting in long drawn out "procurements" and meaningless "evaluations", until the day comes when parameters as outlined above change. /end

Unsurprisingly the IMO confused and contradictory idea of acquiring MQ-28A Ghost Bat for Luftwaffe is dead. Generally speaking, the Luftwaffe requirement for a Loyal Wingman-style CCA drone remains out of touch with technical realities of efforts in the field to date. www.welt.de/politik/deut...

welt.deAufrüstung der Bundeswehr: Rückschlag für Pistorius – warum der eilige „Ghost-Bat“-Plan scheitert - WELTDie Bundeswehr soll bald mit unbemannten Kampfjets Ziele tief im feindlichen Gebiet angreifen können. Doch der schnelle Kauf australischer Drohnen platzt. Nun drohen Verzögerungen – womöglich über Jah...

The only times when Berlin tends to rapidly purchase materiel developed abroad is when said materiel is available MOTS, and German companies cannot make even the most dubious case of offering a domestic equivalent. For CCA no vendor presently offers an operational capability.