Andrew Levi

youtu.beTrump - Ukraine/ Russia: Andrew Levi interview with BBC News 22 Sept 2026YouTube video by Andrew Levi

22 Sept

In case of interest: thoughts on Trump - Ukraine/ Russia. youtu.be/Yi9ra1-n1Ak?...

youtube.comRussian Elections 2026 - interview with Andrew Levi & Ekaterina Kotrikadze on BBC News, 18 Sep 2026YouTube video by Andrew Levi

18 Sept

In case of interest: youtube.com/watch?v=wE8G...

3 Sept

Dear followers, If you’re kind enough to follow me very closely, you’ll know I owe those interested a piece on why Brexit happened. A huge question. But, focusing in, what most characterised leave voters, in contrast to remain? Still a big question. I’m preparing an answer 🙂 Best wishes, Andrew

youtu.beRussia, Europe, War: Andrew Levi interview with BBC News (Christian Fraser), 3 September 2026YouTube video by Andrew Levi

3 Sept

In case of interest: youtu.be/ELtrGWTt_bk?...

In case of interest: more on the relationship between support for the reintroduction of capital punishment & the “leave” vote in the 2016 EU referendum ⬇️

Andrew Levi@andrewprlevi.bsky.social

Two post-referendum polls are in play concerning the death penalty. Perhaps others, but I’ll focus on the two. BES (Oct 2016) & YouGov (Feb 2017). BES sample 24K, YouGov 2K leave voters, 0.8K remain. /1.

You rightly set out important facts about EU/Brexit, @hhesterm.bsky.social, for @lewisgoodall.com. But it’s partially misleading. By far the strongest motivation of leave voters was to bring back hanging & other authoritarian measures. EU freedom of movement was very popular in the UK. /1.

Holger Hestermeyer@hhesterm.bsky.social

I will take these in turn, namely: 1) why do I think a bigger concession would not have swayed the debate 2) why do I think that emotion was decisive and I can quickly state that 3) yes, I would agree, that goes for the EU side, too. Let's start /1

The story of the vote to leave the EU isn’t about the EU. Or immigration. Or being “left behind”. Or EU (non) concessions. It’s about values & decency (or a lack of them). A desire to hurt others (or not). It’s a horrible story about the UK. We won’t fix it by arguing over fish quotas. /13. End

Important correction to post 2, above: NOT job seeking! Sorry. Writing in too much of a hurry.

Holger Hestermeyer@hhesterm.bsky.social

These are just two examples of how narratives about Brexit & the leave vote are very misleading. Wrong, in fact. You point out another: no “concession” from the EU could make the UK implement UK law, which forbade stays over 3 months, except (principally) for employment, study or job-seeking. /2.

Important correction: NOT job seeking! Sorry. Writing in too much of a hurry.

Holger Hestermeyer@hhesterm.bsky.social

Social class or income only gave about 55% accuracy. Such (weak) predictive power as this kind of categorisation has comes from the widely reported fact that a majority of ‘working-class’ votes supported Brexit in the referendum. /11.

Yet 59% of leave votes came from the middle classes, disproportionate to their share of the UK population. /12.

Holger Hestermeyer@hhesterm.bsky.social

Similar results were found in polling for a 2018 Oxford University study. This isn’t a picture of a UK particularly worried about immigration, or EU immigration/ “freedom of movement”. In fact, it’s the opposite. Even - if that’s the right way of characterising it - among leave voters. /9.

So, the grim reality. In 2016 the British Election Study found that overwhelmingly the strongest predictor of a leave vote was support for the reintroduction of the death penalty. Such views are also linked to backing corporal punishment, and opposition to gay and women’s rights. /10.

Holger Hestermeyer@hhesterm.bsky.social

The 2016 poll also got these results in the UK: “[you support] a common European policy on migration” (56%) “you feel you are a citizen of the EU” (54%) “immigration of people from other EU member states evokes a positive feeling [in me]” (52%) “immigrants contribute a lot to the UK” (68%) /7.

In case anyone is wondering: the poll was carried out just before the UK’s 2016 EU referendum. Hmm. Only 33% of leave voters voters’ main stated reason for their choice was for the UK to “regain control over immigration and its own borders” in Lord Ashcroft’s poll just after the referendum. /8.

Holger Hestermeyer@hhesterm.bsky.social

Bear with me. In May 2016, just before the referendum, when asked (by Eurobarometer) whether they were for or against “the free movement of EU citizens who can live, work, study and do business anywhere in the EU”, 68% in the UK were for. This wasn’t a blip. /5.

The question had consistently been asked, year on year, across the EU for the Eurobarometer poll. In the most important period for us, in the Brexit context, 2015 to 2019, the UK result was always between 68% and 78% (this excludes ‘don’t knows’: include them and it’s between 63% and 72%). /6.

Holger Hestermeyer@hhesterm.bsky.social

Few in the UK believed you when you in 2016 or later. Few will believe you in 2026. You just happen to be a genuine expert. Heigh ho. The same goes for the wider point. The leave vote wasn’t driven by EU issues. Not even grotesquely misunderstood ones. Nor by “left-behindness”, or whatever. /3.

Any of the long list of widely cited factors is at most only marginally better than a coin toss in predicting a leave vote. (In many cases, far worse than that, so really not a factor). In a close vote, any difference at the margin can be claimed as decisive. But that’s a distortion of reality. /4.

It’s … surprising that @hhesterm.bsky.social and @lewisgoodall.com are having this exchange on “freedom of movement”, in 2026. UK law, in line with EU law, didn’t let EU citizens stay over 3 months, unless (see list ⬇️). What “concession” was the EU meant to offer, to get the UK to enforce UK law?

Holger Hestermeyer@hhesterm.bsky.social

But free movement was never unlimited in the first place. After 3 months, you are either a student with health insurance, or you work, or you are independently wealthy, if not, you have no right to stay. I found it almost impossible to get that reality across.And the reality was even more complex/10

30 July

‼️ Nigel Farage calls on President to resign ‼️ Oh. Right.

youtube.comEd Miliband as new UK Foreign Secretary: Andrew Levi interview with BBC, 22 July 2026, 6.25 pmYouTube video by Andrew Levi

27 July

Thoughts on Ed Miliband as the new UK Foreign Secretary, and the challenges he faces coming into the job. youtube.com/watch?v=HgNT...

18 July

Andy Burnham PM Alert Perhaps this is boring. But much discussion of Andy Burnham becoming PM ignores it. To be PM you need to be an MP able to command a majority in the House of Commons. Andy Burnham is the only MP able to. How long that will last, we don’t know. The end.