Andrew Miskelly

Andrew Miskelly

@anero.id

Learning from meteorologists, climatologists, engineers, cartographers, aviators, authentic Christians and other good sorts. Fediverse @andrewmiskelly@anero.id

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Upper ridge over the northern Coral Sea directing smoke from El Niño-related fires in New Guinea over the Australian Top End.

Rain and thunderstorms ahead for much of south east Australia, while the staggering run of storms continues over WA's interior.

Warmth over south east Australia will peak on Friday and Saturday before a strong high south of the Bight drives a southerly change through.

The September equinox occurs at 10:05 AEST (00:05 UTC) on Wednesday. The sun rising over this year's unusually strong southern stratospheric polar vortex is triggering marked ozone depletion.

Each winter, the cold vortex promotes polar stratospheric clouds, which enable chemistry that destroys ozone when sunlight returns in spring.

Murky southerly change cutting under the clear, dry air over eastern NSW. The change is preceded by extreme fire danger over the Greater Hunter.

Dry, ex-polar air sweeping over the Tasman Sea and towards the tropics. Expect more frost across prone parts of south east Australia on Thursday morning.

Hurricanes Lowell, Karina and Marie over the eastern Pacific, where high sea surface temperatures associated with El Niño are supplying a lot of energy.

Signs of spring: warmth building over north west Australia; cold fronts to the south; changeable temperatures and bursts of westerlies between.

If not a bloodbath, then certainly a bath across what remains of Australia's snowfields overnight. Around 50 mm of rain at temperatures in the mid single figures.

Another band of rain and thunderstorms crossing central and eastern Australia, ahead of a shortwave and low pressure system.

This low pressure system produced heavy rain over parts of SA and VIC, and brought a brief burst of wintry weather to NSW/ACT.

Seems novel to see something other than a ridge over south east Australia. Snowfalls will extend to the highest parts of central NSW during Monday afternoon, with strong winds featuring more broadly.

This system will bring decent snowfalls to the high country in TAS, VIC and NSW, but will once again have very limited effect north of the Snowy Mountains Highway.

New Zealand next in line for the polar air mass that's just crossed TAS (while mainland Australia remains on the sidelines).

Cold air approaching south east Australia. Unremarkable for the time of year, but novel in the context of this winter to date.

Strongly positive AAO/SAM (Antarctica 🟦 → midlatitudes 🟥) behind the return to onshore winds over eastern Australia, and the non-arrival of Australia's ski season.

A persistent ridge 🟨 over the Tasman Sea (linked to the warm June to date over central and eastern Australia) is showing signs of shifting, but the polar vortex 🟦 is tight (positive SAM/AAO), so no major cold outbreaks in the near term for southern Australia.