Anthony Painter

Anthony Painter

@anthonypainter.bsky.social

Policy. Political economy. Increasing bewilderment. "The Three Economies" Substack here: https://open.substack.com/pub/anthonypainter #ynwa

8.6K followers1.3K following5.6K posts

John Healey's aim tomorrow should be quite simple: to deliver an entirely forgettable budget. The ten year plan, Rewiring the State, the Casey review and the EU options papers should come first. Fiscal policy should then come in behind those strategic initiatives.

At no point did they have the resources and policy to achieve this. A lesson in fundamentally flawed policy making. It was never going to be achieved other than through luck.

Jim Pickard@pickardje.bsky.social

Andy Burnham’s government has privately given up on reaching Labour’s target of building 1.5mn new homes by 2029, and ministers will refer to the goal less and less, according to government figures www.ft.com/content/285a...

There are only two ways to achieve it: suspend planning law for a temporary period of time or, more sustainably, beef up state delivery. The latter would require institutional imagination on the fiscal side.

Oxford Street pedestrianisation will be a resounding success for the same reasons ULEZ was: When you design cities for the public rather than purely private interest good things happen to health, life and commerce.

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There is a very clear growth agenda you can pursue by pretending there are zero trade-offs to international trade, democracy, society, health and the environment and the whole thing won't collapse in a heap having caused irreversible damage. And it looks like this. x.com/RobertJenric...

x.comRobert Jenrick (@RobertJenrick) on XBritain is broke. And to fix it, we need to start growing again. That’s why Reform’s Economic Rescue Plan includes these 64 pro-growth measures I’d take if I were Chancellor: 𝗨𝗻𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗡𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵 𝗦𝗲𝗮...

Turning out to vote is a far more revolutionary act than smashing up the streets ever can be. In fact the latter feeds the authoritarian vultures. I hope European democracies can give young people something worth voting for in the next few months as Lula has done for Brazilians.

And yes, the world is messy and elections are too, but I hope that what we are seeing is the beginnings of an anti-fascist contagion, people saying no when staring into the abyss.

Watching the coverage of Burnham's comments on freedom of movement, it's clear that those in favour of joining the single market/EU will have to confront the lump of labour fallacy. The level of convenient ignorance that the media are willing to play along with means a need for shaper messaging.

Which raises a bigger point. The pro-EU proximity side - the majority as it happens - needs a much sharper campaigning infrastructure. Lots of orgs and people are doing a great job but it's all underpowered.

Burnham is not going to wait with the deadweight of the 2024 Labour manifesto weighing him down if he can decisively win an election. It would jeopardise social care, EU, political reform. The polls are moving into "decisively win" territory. I would look to Spring next year on current trends.

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Term limits have given enough time for an arsonist to set the constitution alight. But they timed out the guy with the fire extinguisher. History's cruel irony. A modest proposal: remove term limits and let Obama and Trump go head to head in 2028. Both parties would support right?

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Obama points out that values (or lack thereof) are just as big a problem for our civic society as affordability

And as the guy says: yes of course prices and economics matter but a politics based on the "cost of living" or "affordability" alone is death. It basically means whoever is holding the ball loses and the next to come along could be pure evil. Progressives have trapped themselves. Values.

And this with a Republican pollster is infuriatingly retail in orientation. "People care about prices and elite politicians don't understand that" level. No, the politics of affordability are so complex. BUT she does say "universal healthcare is an idea whose time has come". From Trump voters...

Burnham is not going to wait with the deadweight of the 2024 Labour manifesto weighing him down if he can decisively win an election. It would jeopardise social care, EU, political reform. The polls are moving into "decisively win" territory. I would look to Spring next year on current trends.

He seized the leadership, he's massively widened the field of political possibility in his conference speech. This is not a cautious politician. If he can go to the electorate next year, he will.

What this mostly shows is the immaturity of English devolution. If we have greater fiscal devolution there will have to be a more active local conversation about tax/spending. And if mayors can't make the case for this one where the costs are incurred elsewhere doesn't bode well at all.

Thomas I-G@thomasig.bsky.social

I'm sorry, but this is such bollocks. Are they seriously suggesting *a quarter* of all tourists would not visit the UK because of a tax which nearly every other European country (not to mention nearly every US state) has? Give over...

There's a bigger issue too. As (transparent) general tax increases have been taken off the table, taxes hitting particular sectors and groups are in vogue. And those sectors/groups have become ferociously effective at creating an almighty and disproportionate stink.

For many years I was ashamed that it was Star Wars and I lasted until the first appearance of Darth Vader whereupon I screamed the place down, was taken out and into Bambi. Recently I realised that I was under three when this happened and maybe I wasn't responsible....

Mark Thompson@markreckons.bsky.social

First film you saw at the cinema. The real first one, not the pretend one you tell people! Mine: The Empire Strikes Back, 1980, Wigan. We were near the front and I can still remember how massive the AT-ATs looked, looming over us out of the snow :) Film, year, where, and whatever stuck with you.

It was classified as U. With Darth Vader, a choking scene, a sword fight to the death, violence throughout and the destruction of a planet. So was Bambi. Things were different then.

It certainly shows, if true, that Kushner was running an illegal policy and laundered fund on behalf of Israel, the UAE as well as Saudi with no oversight or accountability. It suggests but doesn't yet prove personal enrichment in the process. Does it get much bigger?

I know we are desensitised but even on the scale of everything this is *massive*. A Democrat run Congress should pull every single lever it can to cause maximum pain for Trump and his corrupt entourage.

Either there is something problematic in this story or there is a very weird media silence over this. If it's even half true this is the biggest presidential scandal in at least two generations.

More widely, the debate about the scale of what we are being asked to provide and its impacts on our energy system and environment to fuel an accelerating technology we don't yet fully understand or know how to manage is now badly overdue.

This summarises everything wrong with our political system. Why should cities be given these powers as opposed to just having them? See also pavement parking- which cities other than London still can't outlaw (though legislation has passed). And so much more.

Will Norman@willnorman.co.uk

Paris - unlike London - has had the powers to regulate dockless e-bikes. Walking around, you can really see how regulations result in orderly parking. Government is giving UK cities similar powers so we can ensure bikes are parked as well as these in future.

I'm afraid what is left of UK consumer manufacturing is going to have to be willing to write-off sunk costs and radically restructure. UK Government should be very clear of the need to change more rapidly rather than bending to existing business plans. Sometimes "partnership" requires home truths.

Chris Dillow@chrisdillow.bsky.social

The UK car industry was protected from Chinese imports for decades, by virtue of the latter not existing. If that wasn't protection enough, nor will tariffs be. This is an attack on consumers in the name of the politics of Cher: "if I could turn back time." labourlist.org/2026/10/put-...

Ditto Europe. There is a case for transition protection but zero case for protecting existing business models. Whatever they threaten, offshoring etc, they are on borrowed time unless they face up to reality. Government and the EU can help them.

I find that young people simply look at me in disbelief when I tell them you used to turn on the TV and you were straight on to the content without having to wait for it to load then cycle through endless menus and apps.

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To all the podcasters/Substackers/magazines I want to subscribe to I'm sorry - football and the FT have eaten all the budget between them. The latter doesn't even give you access to all the content which, sorry FT folk, it's a bit mean.

The football is mostly rubbish too. Just take last night, I turned on Bayern v Arsenal for 20 minutes to enjoy an Arsenal defeat and yet again they showed resilience when their entire brand is meant to be lack of resilience. You can't leave it all up to Man U and Spurs. I'll stop.

I find that young people simply look at me in disbelief when I tell them you used to turn on the TV and you were straight on to the content without having to wait for it to load then cycle through endless menus and apps.

But don't get me wrong, the modern media experience is great. I've just listened to a podcast, on the decline of long form content no less, with 4 minutes of "like and subscribe to my podcast", five minutes of content, then lots of ads for a job search site. Brilliant.

But why don't you subscribe to the premium service? I did... What about the "founder" price level. Great, I'll do this for everything I read/listen to. Now I might need that job search site to find an income of £200k per year.

And even as we move towards net positive migration people still think things are getting worse. Which also shows the Government's hard-line proposals are doing little but adding to the atmosphere of "crisis".