Aron Lund

More on this strange affair: www.timesofisrael.com/report-zamir...

Israeli media, apparently unencumbered by the usual military censorship on matters of national security, reports that IDF CoS Eyal Zamir is trying to block Netanyahu from launching “some kind of military action relating to Iran just before Tuesday’s election”. www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...

Useful function of the Mecca Alliance: it creates a framework for high-level meetings with Iran, esp. for Saudi Arabia. Saudi defense minister Khaled bin Salman, Pakistani military chief Asem Munir, and Turkish head of intelligence Ibrahim Kalin jointly visit Tehran: aawsat.com/%D8%A7%D9%84...

Changing USA-Israel relations: AIPAC announces that while it will keep financing U.S. politicians on behalf of Israel it will no longer endorse them publicly, in what seems like quiet recognition of its increasingly toxic reputation. @saigemiller.bsky.social, @npr.org: www.npr.org/2026/10/21/n...

Breaking with decades of official non-interventionism, Algeria’s parliament authorizes troop deployments to Niger. @reuters.com: www.reuters.com/world/africa...

Waltz denies: x.com/usambun/stat...

Considering the Trump administration’s constant internal mayhem, I think it may be wise to prepare for a scenario where they accidentally end up giving MINURSO’s mandate to UNIFIL and vice versa.

Trogna läsare av @foiresearch.bsky.social:s rapporter kände naturligtvis till detta redan fyra månader innan det inträffade. foi.se/rapporter/ra...

Polisario has responded that if that draft were to pass without meaningful changes, the group will “disengage from the peace process as a whole. www.spsrasd.info/en/2026/10/2...

With MINURSO up for mandate renewal on Oct. 31, the United States has put forth a draft that would completely change its mission, dropping the referendum on independence in favor of merely negotiating the form of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. en.yabiladi.com/articles/det...

Egypt, also not happy: www.alarabiya.net/arab-and-wor...

A report by Matthew Cole in @vanityfair.com alleges potential high-value corruption on the part of Jared Kushner, linked to secret foreign policy slush funds set up with Emirati and Saudi money. www.vanityfair.com/story/jared-... Kushner rejects the allegations: x.com/jaredkushner...

Little bit of an opening on Lebanon, maybe?

Three-day special military operation update: “Mike Waltz, Donald Trump’s ambassador to the UN, acknowledged that a year from now the US could still be mired in a stalemate with Iran.” @hauslohner.bsky.social @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/7037...

Making plans do not equal making a decision, of course, but with all that’s happening—diplomacy stalled, carriers heading into place, weird Israeli Air Force trial runs/defense tests, diplomats leaving etc.—this seems quite credible.

The United States and Israel have made plans for attacking Iran once they’re done with their elections, reports @nytimes.com. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/21/u...

With Hormuz still closed, Bahrain’s economy is going kaput and the UAE prepares a financial support package, reports @asharqbusiness.bsky.social’s Alaa Shahine Salha. asharqbusiness.com/economics/15...

x.com/aya_isk/stat...

Full text of the Mecca Agreement, via @ragipsoylu.bsky.social. www.middleeasteye.net/news/full-te...

Collect all four, win an imamate in Yemen: ✅ Saudis ✅ Egypt ✅ United Kingdom ❌ Ottoman Empire

UK promises increased military support for Saudi Arabia’s war with the Houthis, but no strikes inside Yemen. questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-stat...

Greece, not happy: www.mfa.gr/en/announcem... Cyprus, not happy: www.gov.cy/en/foreign-p... EU, not happy: www.consilium.europa.eu/sv/press/pre...

Too low a bid, apparently: bsky.app/profile/aron...

Libyan lawmakers tell @reuters.com the Benghazi-based parliament approved the 2019 Turkey-Libya deal, previously only signed by the Tripoli cabinet. Big success for Turkey, as it supports Ankara’s claim on Greek & Cypriot waters—and a clear failure of EU Libya policy. www.reuters.com/world/europe...

This is very good news: “DNA testing has helped identify the remains of missing people in at least three cases in Syria this year, the country’s first such identification cases” Feras Dalatey, @reuters.com: www.reuters.com/world/syrias...

“Investment in alternative logistics routes in the Gulf to mitigate the impact of the Iran war could make the Strait of Hormuz ‘redundant’ in the ‌next five years, HSBC Group Chief Executive Georges Elhedery said on Tuesday.” 👀 Federico Maccioni, @reuters.com: www.reuters.com/business/ene...

Detailed backgrounder on the non-Apoite Kurdish political movements of Syria, by @akmckeever.bsky.social. akmckeever.substack.com/p/on-the-kur...

A “senior Syrian official” tells Jerusalem Post’s Amichai Stein that the Syrian government fears an Israeli-backed Druze offensive in Sweida may be imminent. @thejerusalempost.bsky.social: www.jpost.com/middle-east/...

Viktigt meddelande till svenska nyhetsredaktioner: Förenade arabemiraten skrivs med litet A. Detta beror på att svenska inte är engelska.

Iran’s official position has not changed, but its internal discourse has, reports @financialtimes.com’s Najmeh Bozorgmehr: after years of carefully controlled public debate, IRGC-linked hardliners now openly argue that nuclear weapons are necessary. www.ft.com/content/1f23...

On the rise and fall of Syrian ex-regime milita chief Mihrac Ural by @ajaltamimi.bsky.social, who interviewed him several times. www.aymennaltamimi.com/p/the-rise-a...

“The protest poses a significant challenge to Saied after years of divisions weakened the opposition’s ability to mobilise large crowds.” Tarek Amara, @reuters.com: www.reuters.com/business/med...

When international attention moves elsewhere, so does funding: WFP cuts aid for Palestinians in Gaza, leaving 500,000 without monthly food assistance. @reuters.com: www.reuters.com/world/middle...

Kan gärna läsas jämte min FOI-kollega Samuel Neuman Bergenwalls rapport om hur israelisk militärdoktrin och strategi utvecklas sedan 7/10-2023: "Israeliskt militärt tänkande: från gräsklippning och gråzonsoperationer till storkrig" foi.se/rapporter/ra...

UI:s Fredrik Meiton om det israeliska valet och radikaliseringen av Israels säkerhetspolitik efter 7 oktober-angreppet. www.ui.se/utrikesmagas...

“Syrian authorities have imposed admissions rules that bar women from most programs at two new state universities focused on defense and security” @hrw.org: www.hrw.org/news/2026/10...

Trump says Netanyahu must be reelected, since no one else can handle Iran. After he held off on making an endorsement for so long, why now? truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...

On Syria’s SDF reintegration process with @akmckeever.bsky.social in conversation with @amberinzaman.bsky.social on the @almonitor.bsky.social podcast. Lots of detail, very interesting. www.al-monitor.com/podcasts/kur...

Sisi: “The period leading up to 2030 will be the end of my term as president of the state, if I am still alive. This is completely settled and there will be no discussion about it.” www.arabnews.com/middle-east/...

Saudi Arabia isn’t doing too splendidly against the Houthis, and there are reasons. @nmacfarquhar.bsky.social @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/10/15/w...

U.S. attitudes to Israel are changing fast. @stelhami.bsky.social explains how and why: cpsblog.isr.umich.edu?p=3693

Netanyahu says he called Sharaa during the Sweida clashes in 2025, report Rina Bassist and @adamlucente.bsky.social: “I called Sharaa. It was a very brief and to-the-point conversation, and the massacre stopped.” @almonitor.bsky.social: www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

Syrian authorities have arrested Mihrac Ural , alias Ali Kayyali, a fugitive Turkish-Alawite communist and former pro-Assad militia leader accused of orchestrating the 2013 Baniyas massacre. • Arabic: sana.sy/locals/26078... • English: sana.sy/en/syria/235...

The whole team at the @fpri.bsky.social Initiative for Deterrence and Arms Control pitched in, including @duitsmanms.bsky.social, @jfjord.bsky.social, and Seth Hosford.

What is the state of Iranian missile production sites? Thanks to new imagery from our friends at Planet Labs, the @fpri.bsky.social IDAC Team took a look! Bottom line, many of the facilities are still severely damaged, with some debris removal and repair work ongoing. www.fpri.org/article/2026...

”A failure ​by the United States and Iran to agree within weeks on a UN-backed plan for moving fertilizer through the Strait of Hormuz could cause a ‌food security crisis in parts of Asia and Africa, an official overseeing the proposed scheme said” www.reuters.com/world/middle...

A Lebanese cabinet minister, speaking on condition of anonymity (?!), tells al-Sharq al-Awsat’s Soubhi Amhaz the EU mission is only for training and maybe later some material support. Not a new UNIFIL, won’t do hands-on security, won’t police any borders. aawsat.com/%D8%A7%D9%84...