Stephen Schwartz

Stephen Schwartz

@atomicanalyst.bsky.social

Editor/Co-author, “Atomic Audit: The Costs and Consequences of US Nuclear Weapons Since 1940” • Nonresident Senior Fellow, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists • Nuclear weapons expert (history, policy, costs, accidents) and tracker of the nuclear “Football.”

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45 yrs ago today, Soviet Whiskey-class coastal patrol diesel-electric submarine S-363 hit an underwater rock and ran aground about 6.2 miles from the large Swedish naval base at Karlskrona. This international incident—which wags dubbed “Whiskey on the Rocks”—occurred during a Swedish naval exercise.

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45 yrs ago today, Soviet Whiskey-class coastal patrol diesel-electric submarine S-363 hit an underwater rock and ran aground about 6.2 miles from the large Swedish naval base at Karlskrona. This international incident—which wags dubbed “Whiskey on the Rocks”—occurred during a Swedish naval exercise.

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When the Soviets sent a naval task force to retrieve S-363, it triggered a tense 10-day standoff with Sweden. Moscow ultimately allowed Sweden to extricate its submarine, which sailed home on November 7. In 1991 and 1992, the Soviet newspaper Izvestiya published two articles investigating claims …

45 yrs ago today, Soviet Whiskey-class coastal patrol diesel-electric submarine S-363 hit an underwater rock and ran aground about 6.2 miles from the large Swedish naval base at Karlskrona. This international incident—which wags dubbed “Whiskey on the Rocks”—occurred during a Swedish naval exercise.

During a six-hour interrogation by Swedish authorities on November 2, Captain Anatolij Gustjtjin claimed a simultaneous failure of all four on-board navigation systems caused the submarine to drift 100 miles off course from Poland’s coast into the rocky bay. The Swedes did not believe his story.

60 years ago today, China launched a Dong Feng-2 medium-range ballistic missile carrying a live 12-kiloton nuclear warhead from its Shuangchengzi Missile Test Center. The missile flew 556 miles west across China before detonating 1,867 feet above the Lop Nor Nuclear Test Base in Xinjiang Province.

The only end-to-end US nuclear test pairing a live warhead with an operational ballistic missile took place on May 6, 1962, over the western North Pacific Ocean:

Stephen Schwartz@atomicanalyst.bsky.social

Today in 1962, the United States conducted FRIGATE BIRD, the only US nuclear proof test of a live warhead on an operational ballistic missile. In the Pacific, the USS Ethan Allen (SSBN-608) launched a Polaris A1 SLBM toward Christmas Island (Kiritimati). The W47 Y1 warhead’s yield was about 600 kt.

October 27, 1962, was arguably the most dangerous day of the Cuban Missile Crisis, a day when human error, rushed preparations, aggressive tactics, and sky-high tensions could have set off World War III intentionally or by accident at least four separate times. Here’s what happened (a long thread):

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For more, read the surviving notes of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff meeting from that most dangerous and eventful October day, “a six-and-a-half-hour cascade of crises where human error, miscalculation, reckless deployment of nuclear weapons, and testosterone ruled the day.”

nsarchive.gwu.eduThe Cuban Missile Crisis @ 60 The Most Dangerous DayJoint Chiefs: “The president has a feeling that time is running out.” Cascade of human errors, nuclear-armed flashpoints, on October 27 nearly started World War III by accident. JFK: “always some SOB ...

The crisis eased the next day when Khrushchev announced on Radio Moscow that all Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba would be dismantled and removed. But it only ended on November 20 when nuclear-capable bombers flew home. (Decades later, we learned that 158 Soviet nuclear warheads were also in Cuba.)

October 27, 1962, was arguably the most dangerous day of the Cuban Missile Crisis, a day when human error, rushed preparations, aggressive tactics, and sky-high tensions could have set off World War III intentionally or by accident at least four separate times. Here’s what happened (a long thread):

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The Soviet test—codenamed 192—involved a 260-kiloton device airdropped and detonated 5,090 feet above Area C at the test site on the arctic archipelago of Novaya Zemlya. (This test was the reason SAC had ordered Maultsby and other U-2 pilots to fly radioactive air-sampling missions that day.)

Cool heads—especially in the White House but also in the Kremlin and aboard the B-59—kept the Cuban Missile Crisis from escalating into an all-out nuclear war. But the fact that nuclear weapons were not launched in anger or by accident 64 years ago today is fundamentally just due to sheer luck.

October 27, 1962, was arguably the most dangerous day of the Cuban Missile Crisis, a day when human error, rushed preparations, aggressive tactics, and sky-high tensions could have set off World War III intentionally or by accident at least four separate times. Here’s what happened (a long thread):

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October 27, 1962, was arguably the most dangerous day of the Cuban Missile Crisis, a day when human error, rushed preparations, aggressive tactics, and sky-high tensions could have set off World War III intentionally or by accident at least four separate times. Here’s what happened (a long thread):

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Commander William Morgan, the Cony’s captain, quickly ordered Ensign Gary Slaughter to use a flashing signal lamp to apologize for the aggressive tactics. Savitsky had already gone below. Arkhipov and a signals officer were about to descend when the officer and his lamp got stuck in the hatch.

Momentarily delayed, Arkhipov saw Slaughter’s flashing message and instantly understood its meaning. He ordered a halt to all preparations to fire the nuclear torpedo, although it remained in its tube. Savitsky acknowledged the apology, closed his torpedo doors, and turned his submarine away.

October 27, 1962, was arguably the most dangerous day of the Cuban Missile Crisis, a day when human error, rushed preparations, aggressive tactics, and sky-high tensions could have set off World War III intentionally or by accident at least four separate times. Here’s what happened (a long thread):

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(Historical Footnote: Thirteen months earlier, on July 4, 1961, Arkhipov was aboard the nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine K-19 when it suffered a catastrophic reactor accident that killed 23 crew members—8 of them within one to three weeks—and nearly led to the loss of the submarine.)

Stephen Schwartz@atomicanalyst.bsky.social

Sixty-five years ago today, K-19—the Soviet navy’s first nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine—suffered a complete loss of reactor coolant during its initial patrol while off the southeastern coast of Greenland, sending dangerously-radioactive steam into every compartment of the boat.

When the B-59 surfaced, US antisubmarine warfare aircraft harassed it with searchlights, flares, and tracer fire. Savitsky and others on the bridge panicked, believing they were under attack. He ordered the 10-kiloton torpedo readied for launch and turned the submarine toward the destroyer USS Cony.

October 27, 1962, was arguably the most dangerous day of the Cuban Missile Crisis, a day when human error, rushed preparations, aggressive tactics, and sky-high tensions could have set off World War III intentionally or by accident at least four separate times. Here’s what happened (a long thread):

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To remain hidden from US forces, B-59 was sailing too deep to monitor radio traffic. So no one aboard knew if the crisis had escalated into an actual war. Exhausted, confused, and rattled by the explosives, the captain ordered a nuclear-armed torpedo to be prepared to launch at his tormentors.

Executive officer Vasili Arkhipov, 34, who was aboard the B-59 and was also the commodore of the entire Soviet submarine flotilla in Cuba, refused to authorize the nuclear torpedo launch and—following an argument—convinced Captain Valentin Savitsky to relent, surface, and await further orders.

October 27, 1962, was arguably the most dangerous day of the Cuban Missile Crisis, a day when human error, rushed preparations, aggressive tactics, and sky-high tensions could have set off World War III intentionally or by accident at least four separate times. Here’s what happened (a long thread):

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Later that evening, Soviet Foxtrot-class submarine B-59 was submerged in international waters off Cuba when a group of 12 US Navy vessels located it. In order to identify the submarine, the ships began dropping grenades and practice depth charges to force it to the surface. archive.is/aaG3B

Because of the crisis, submarine B-59 had been unable to surface for four days. As a result, it was exceedingly stuffy and carbon dioxide levels were dangerously high. And because it was not designed for tropical conditions, temperatures inside were almost unbearable, ranging from 122˚ F to 142˚ F.

October 27, 1962, was arguably the most dangerous day of the Cuban Missile Crisis, a day when human error, rushed preparations, aggressive tactics, and sky-high tensions could have set off World War III intentionally or by accident at least four separate times. Here’s what happened (a long thread):

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As scholar Scott Sagan wrote his 1993 book “The Limits of Safety,” to make these ICBMs ready for war quickly (SAC went to DEFCON 2 on October 24), Air Force personnel jury-rigged systems and improvised their own safety procedures. Said one, “I could have launched it on my own, if I had wanted to.”

At 11:19 AM EDT, over eastern Cuba, Soviet air defense forces at Banes shot down a U-2 reconnaissance plane piloted by Major Rudolf Anderson, Jr., out of fear it would discover that 3 FKR nuclear-armed cruise missiles had been deployed just 15 miles from US forces at Guantanamo Naval Base.

October 27, 1962, was arguably the most dangerous day of the Cuban Missile Crisis, a day when human error, rushed preparations, aggressive tactics, and sky-high tensions could have set off World War III intentionally or by accident at least four separate times. Here’s what happened (a long thread):

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Maultsby’s mistake made the New York Times front page two days later, after Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev disclosed the incident in a letter to Kennedy. Neither leader specified the type of aircraft involved, and Khrushchev politely but firmly stressed the risk to peace such flights entailed.

Meanwhile, SAC rushed the first Minuteman 1A ICBM—armed with a 1-Megaton W59 warhead—onto alert at Launch Facility A-06 at Malmstrom AFB, Montana. Five more followed by October 30. Thirty-six ICBMs in test configuration were also made war ready at Vandenberg AFB, California, and four other bases.

October 27, 1962, was arguably the most dangerous day of the Cuban Missile Crisis, a day when human error, rushed preparations, aggressive tactics, and sky-high tensions could have set off World War III intentionally or by accident at least four separate times. Here’s what happened (a long thread):

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President John F. Kennedy famously said of this very dangerous incident, “There is always some son-of-a-bitch who doesn't get the word.” But Maultsby was not at fault because no word had ever been given. No one at SAC had thought to review, modify, or suspend these flights during the crisis.

McNamara immediately ordered a second U-2 air-sampling mission to the North Pole that was already in the air to be recalled and subsequently canceled all U-2 air-sampling missions pending a full Air Force investigation into Maultsby’s errant flight (which remains classified to this day).

October 27, 1962, was arguably the most dangerous day of the Cuban Missile Crisis, a day when human error, rushed preparations, aggressive tactics, and sky-high tensions could have set off World War III intentionally or by accident at least four separate times. Here’s what happened (a long thread):

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Maultsby actually ran out of fuel after leaving Soviet airspace and had to glide to a safe landing at a remote airstrip in Kotzebue, Alaska, at 2:25 PM EDT, after flying 10 hours and 25 minutes (making his the longest U-2 flight on record).

Incredibly, SAC did not inform Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara of Maultsby’s wayward flight until 1:41 PM EDT. McNamara hurriedly left a meeting with the Joint Chiefs of Staff and telephoned President Kennedy four minutes later. The Pentagon notified the State Department at 1:47 PM EDT.

October 27, 1962, was arguably the most dangerous day of the Cuban Missile Crisis, a day when human error, rushed preparations, aggressive tactics, and sky-high tensions could have set off World War III intentionally or by accident at least four separate times. Here’s what happened (a long thread):

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by instructing him to turn left until Orion’s Belt was off his right wingtip (thereby flying westward and back to Alaska). Alaska Air Defense Command also scrambled two F-102s from Galena Air Force Base to guide Maultsby home and, if necessary, intercept the MiGs.

Because DEFCON 3 had been ordered five days earlier, the conventional munitions normally carried by the aircraft had been removed and each F-102 Delta Dagger was now carrying a Falcon air-to-air missile armed with a .25-kiloton (250 ton) W54 nuclear warhead.

October 27, 1962, was arguably the most dangerous day of the Cuban Missile Crisis, a day when human error, rushed preparations, aggressive tactics, and sky-high tensions could have set off World War III intentionally or by accident at least four separate times. Here’s what happened (a long thread):

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starting at 8:00 AM Alaska time (Noon in Washington, DC) because he was blinded by the aurora borealis and unable to navigate accurately using the stars. MiG-19 fighters were scrambled from Pevek Airport on the Chukotka Peninsula at 11:56 AM EDT (and a little later from Anadyr), but were unable …

to shoot down the U-2. Although SAC was able to track Maultsby and the MiGs by eavesdropping on Soviet air defense communications, it could not share this vital information with him over the radio because those capabilities were a closely-held secret. Instead, SAC controllers guided Maultsby home …

October 27, 1962, was arguably the most dangerous day of the Cuban Missile Crisis, a day when human error, rushed preparations, aggressive tactics, and sky-high tensions could have set off World War III intentionally or by accident at least four separate times. Here’s what happened (a long thread):

While flying a scheduled Strategic Air Command (SAC) air-sampling mission out of Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska, over the North Pole to collect radioactive debris from Soviet atmospheric nuclear tests, Captain Charles Maultsby’s U-2 accidentally strayed into Soviet airspace for more than an hour, …

OTD 65 yrs ago, the Soviet Union conducted the first two of a series of five high-altitude nuclear tests, launching two missiles from Kapustin Yar across central Kazakhstan to detonate warheads (1.2 kt each) over Sary Shagan. The other three tests (300 kt each) were on Oct. 22, 28, and Nov. 1, 1962.

Tonight in 1945 at the Los Angeles Coliseum, 100,000 people watched a star-studded spectacle reenacting the war with Japan, including kamikaze attacks on an aircraft carrier, firebombing Tokyo, and the atomic bombing of Hiroshima—all simulated by Hollywood SFX artists and Army explosives experts.

What the fuck does any of that bullshit have to do with public health you desiccated growling scrotum?

The Bulwark@thebulwark.com

RFK: "There's five hundred million Arabs in the world. And yet they don't produce science. They don't win the Nobel Prize. They don't win the Fields Prize. They don't win the Wolf Prize. They don't produce literature."

Today in 1969, President Nixon’s secret global nuclear alert escalated when the Strategic Air Command initiated GIANT LANCE, a nuclear show of force that involved flying 18 nuclear-armed B-52s from March AFB, California, and Fairchild AFB, Washington State, to Eielson AFB, Alaska, and from there …

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Today in 1969, President Nixon’s secret global nuclear alert escalated when the Strategic Air Command initiated GIANT LANCE, a nuclear show of force that involved flying 18 nuclear-armed B-52s from March AFB, California, and Fairchild AFB, Washington State, to Eielson AFB, Alaska, and from there …

(starting the next day) over Alaska in an oval pattern and over the polar ice cap toward the Soviet Union. The 18-hour flights ran from October 27-29. The Joint Chiefs of Staff terminated GIANT LANCE on October 30, after US intelligence detected that the Soviet Union was aware of the airborne alert.

The risk of accidents during GIANT LANCE increased because SAC issued temporary waivers allowing non-certified personnel to handle nuclear weapons and for those nuclear weapons to be placed closer together than rules normally permitted. The airborne B-52s also flew so close to other aircraft that …