Augie Ray

New NWSS data is out, and #COVID19 is remaining fairly stubborn, particularly in the West and South. Nationally, COVID has been bouncing around in a low/moderate range rather than declining in fall. But, the real story is that the South and West have remained at moderate levels for six weeks. 1/4

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I just traveled 6 out of the last 8 weeks and remained healthy, to my knowledge. I sometimes masked (on planes during boarding/deplaning/taxiing) but generally didn't mask, opting instead for less crowded places, midday meals (when restaurants were emptier), and outdoor activities. 3/4

And, I was just vaccinated earlier this month and take other precautions (such as using Profi, a PCANS nasal spray that is unvetted by the FDA, but research shows it can trap and block viruses in the nasal passage.) If you're in a state with moderate to high viral activity, please take some care!

The summer #COVID19 surge has stopped growing, but it also isn't receding yet. And, around half of states are at moderate, high, and very high viral activity, including a few states in the Northeast. 2/4

onlinelibrary.wiley.comDoes COVID‐19 Vaccination Protect Against Post‐COVID Cardiovascular Conditions?Cardiovascular diseases, such as acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and arrhythmias, have been associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, representing an important cause of long-term morbidity an...

STUDY: "COVID-19 vaccination has proven effective beyond the acute phase of the disease, with protection extending to a reduced risk of post-COVID cardiovascular conditions." Get your #COVID19 vaccination if you can. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

medium.comCOVID’s Summer Surge Has Peaked, So What’s Ahead? Update for October 9, 2026COVID’s summer surge seems to have reached its maximum point and is now beginning to recede in much of the US. There are still hotspots…

My new update on #COVID19 trends in the US: - COVID seems to have peaked. - Different sources of data provide conflicting info about where COVID risks are highest. - This summer's surge briefly exceeded last winter's, breaking our 3-year trend of lower surges. medium.com/@augieray_66...

thelancet.comBooster dose of COVID-19 vaccine and its effectiveness against post COVID-19 condition in individuals with pre-existing immunity: a sequential propensity score-matched cohort studyReceiving a fourth dose of COVID-19 vaccine was associated with a lower risk of being diagnosed with post COVID-19 condition compared with three doses, although the absolute risk reduction was small. ...

STUDY: "A fourth vaccine dose was associated with a decreased risk of being diagnosed with post #COVID19 condition, with a vaccine effectiveness of 31%." www.thelancet.com/journals/ecl...

usatoday.com'60 Minutes' has steep ratings decline in season premiere after changes at CBSThe 59th season of the iconic newsmagazine premiered Sept. 13, and nearly 20% fewer viewers tuned in to hear the news of the week.

17 Sept

Go fash, lose cash. www.usatoday.com/story/entert...

medium.comCOVID’s Summer Surge Continues: My Last Weekly Update (August 28, 2026) for a WhileThe summer surge continues and shows signs it will extend well into September. COVID is high in some spots, and it’s certainly worth…

28 Aug

My final #COVID19 update for a couple of months (due to a vacation.) - COVID levels still rising. - COVID worse in the South & West than the Northeast & Midwest. - This surge is still lower than past surges. - I've included tips for how to check risks in your area. medium.com/@augieray_66...

I often speak about how much both the surges and the lulls of #COVID19 have fallen. I remain concerned and cautious about infections given the science of COVID's potential chronic impact on health and wellbeing. But lower risks are worth celebrating, IMO. How much have they fallen? An analysis: 1/5

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A COVID reinfection can still leave you with chronic health issues. But if COVID infection risks are 50 to 80% lower than they were in the past four years, that is a significant reduction in those risks. I still take care, but I adjust to the risks. You do you—just be accurately informed! 5/5

I will add this, which is a guesstimate: Back in 2024, I thought people were being infected, on average, every 18 to 24 months. Given the reduction of COVID in US wastewater, that might be once every eight years, which is comparable to the flu. Low vax rates threaten this, but it's still good news.

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I broke the year into Winter (Nov to Apr) and Summer (May to Oct) to align with how #COVID19 surges. This summer isn't complete, but if we compare the risks of infection last winter, they were the lowest since summer 2021 (when almost everyone was recently vaccinated and many still took care.) 3/5

In general, the risk of being infected this past winter was almost half as much as the prior summer. It was less than half as much as from winter 2024/25. It was 75% lower than Summer 2024. And it was more than 80% lower than the riskiest period—winter 2024/25. 4/5

First, in full disclosure, different variants can cause unique levels of shedding, so this isn't 100% accurate, but it is mostly dependable. I conducted an “area under the curve” analysis, which is a way of understanding COVID risks throughout a period (and not simply looking at peak levels.) 2/5

medium.comUS Summer COVID Surge Continues, But Data is Getting Weird and Harder to Get: Update for August 21…First things first: COVID is still surging and is (for now) remaining lower than past surges. The South, the Bay Area, Alaska, and Hawaii…

New weekly update published. Our summer surge continues and is expected to do so another 3 or 4 weeks. We're still lower than past surges, however. This update also discussed this week's changes to the CDC's NWSS and the future federal funding of wastewater monitoring. medium.com/@augieray_66...

newrepublic.comTrump Hands North Korea’s Kim Jong Un a Massive GiftDonald Trump appears to think North Korea’s dictator is his friend.

17 Aug

So, the same guy who's been ranting non-stop about communism is now canceling military exercises with South Korea because of his "very good relationship with..." communist leader Kim Jong Un. Is there nothing Republicans won't believe so long as Trump says it? newrepublic.com/post/214399/...

16 Aug

If you're in Anchorage, I'd definitely start being cautious about viral risks. For some reason, #COVID19 in Anchorage wastewater has exploded to near-record levels in the past week. Unsure why this is happening, but it's concerning. It is 12x higher than any other US sewershed at present.

15 Aug

COVID is rising in the US, but the overall trends are positive. Up until January 2024, each winter and summer COVID surge and lull was generally growing. Since then, the trend has been very consistent through five winter and summer surges, each lower than the next. Will the trend continue? 1/2

15 Aug

It seems the pace of COVID evolution may be slowing, and prior infections and vaccinations are keeping more safe. BUT low vax rates and people ignoring all mitigations, even in surges, invite the risks of higher surges. And, the chronic risk of Long COVID and other issues from reinfections remains.

medium.comCOVID’s Moderate Summer Surge Continues in the US: Update for August 14, 2026Both the positive rate of COVID testing and COVID in wastewater continue to rise, but as mentioned in past updates, the levels are much…

14 Aug

New weekly update of #COVID19 in the US has been published. Pretty much the same story it's been for weeks—still surging, but still significantly lower than past surges. But, there are hotspots in the US. medium.com/@augieray_66...

medium.comCOVID’s Modest US Surge Continues, with Higher Levels in the South: Update for August 7, 2026Data from the National Wastewater Surveillance System (NWSS) and WastewaterSCAN indicate our still-modest COVID surge continues. Infection…

8 Aug

My weekly update on #COVID19 levels and risks in the US. COVID continues to rise (both positive rate and COVID levels in wastewater). Viral activity is highest in the South, along with Alaska and Hawaii. medium.com/@augieray_66...

washingtonpost.comTrump keeps making threats. The world has stopped flinching.The president’s bombast has ceased to rattle world leaders, who have seen him fenced in by courts, rebuffed by Congress and strung along by Iran.

4 Aug

Trump's an ineffective troll who rages behind his Truth Social account while the rest of the world ignores and laughs at him—and us. We either endorse this aberrant and harmful situation or we fight by voting in November. What will you do? #VoteBlue www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...

1 Aug

#COVID19 is still low in most of the US, but this is not the case in certain spots in Alaska, Florida, and Georgia, where around 1 in 100 is infectious. There are other spots with modest rises in COVID, such as in AL, LA, OH, and TX. It's smart to take care in parts of the US now. But… 1/2

1 Aug

I want to stress that this surge is still relatively modest in most of the US, as we can see from this chart of six months worth of data. We're still a long way from the levels seen in last winter's surge (and that surge was the smallest we'd had in years.) 2/2

medium.comCOVID’s Modest Summer Surge Continues, with Varied Risks: Update for July 31, 2026COVID is rising in the US, but at a fairly consistent and modest pace. Thus far, this surge is well below past surges, although the risks…

31 July

My new weekly update on #COVID19 risks in the US: - This summer's surge remains quite modest. We may have just this week surpassed the lowest level the US experienced in the prior four years. - Risks are varied. Hotspots are in AK, FL, HI, LA, and OH. medium.com/@augieray_66...

variety.comGlen Hansard, Irish Musician and ‘Once’ Star Who Won Oscar for Best Song, Dies at 56Glen Hansard, the Irish musician who starred in the film "Once" and won the Oscar for best song, died on Wednesday in a motorcycle crash. He was 56.

29 July

Damn it, another favorite musician of mine has died. Too much talent going to waste. variety.com/2026/music/g...

youtube.comKavinsky - Nightcall (Drive Original Movie Soundtrack) (Official Audio)YouTube video by Record Makers

29 July

RIP Kavinsky. Two of my favorite DJs/electronic music artists have recently passed. Starcadian/Georgios Smaragdis was killed in an e-bike accident last year, and Kavinsky/Vincent ‌Belorgey was recently found dead at his home of a presumed stroke (at 50!). www.youtube.com/watch?v=MV_3...

sciencedirect.comEpidemiology and mortality among hospital-acquired cases of COVID-19 in the pre-Omicron and Omicron periods: A data-linkage study in Victoria, AustraliaThe aim of this study was to compare the epidemiology and mortality of hospital-acquired versus non-hospital-acquired COVID-19 infections among hospit…

28 July

Healthcare workers: “We care for people.” Me: “Then you'll wear a mask?” HCW: “We don't care that much.” STUDY: “Hospital-acquired COVID-19 infections remain significant (and) associated with higher mortality rates than non-hospital-acquired infection.” www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

medium.comCOVID Low but Rising in the US, Particularly in South and West: Update for July 24, 2026The latest data from the National Wastewater Surveillance System (NWSS) and WastewaterSCAN are not completely aligned. However, the new…

24 July

My weekly update on #COVID19 in the US: - The CDC NWSS's data is more complete but harder to interpret. It indicates COVID is rising in the West and Northeast. - WastwaterSCAN's data is less complete but more specific. It suggests the South is increasing. 1/2 medium.com/@augieray_66...

24 July

- Levels remain low compared to the past four years, but risks differ in different spots. - The positive rate of testing is level or rising only modestly right now, suggesting this surge will remain modest. 2/2

fastcompany.comConservatives are dying at higher rates than liberals. A new study points to mistrust in medicineThe health divide emerged over the last decade and has widened since 2020, according to research that links ideology to outcomes from heart disease, cancer, stroke, and other internal causes.

23 July

Conservatives ignoring science and putting their health at risk is nothing new. A new study found that, in the 2010s, “conservative Americans experienced worsening health and higher mortality than liberals.” 1/2 www.fastcompany.com/91561329/wid...

23 July

Among the causes is “declining trust in medical professionals among right-leaning individuals, including lower willingness to seek care, follow clinical advice or believe in medication effectiveness, even for issues unrelated to COVID-19.” FAFO! 2/2

18 July

We are in a (so far) small summer surge in the US. #COVID19 in wastewater has roughly tripled, but to put this into perspective, here is the chart of US sewersheds over the past 12 months. Our surge remains so mild you can barely see it relative to levels this past year.

medium.comCOVID Rising in Portions of the US but Remains Very Low in Most of the Nation: Update for July 17…The latest National Wastewater Surveillance System (NWSS) data hints that COVID is rising in portions of the West, while data from…

17 July

New weekly update on #COVID19 in the US: COVID is rising but remains low in aggergate. Risks are quite diverse. The NWSS indicates COVID viral activity is Moderate in TX, while 5 of the 7 sewersheds with the highest levels in WastewaterSCAN's dashboard are in FL. medium.com/@augieray_66...

17 July

Air quality is no better today in the Midwest. Air is unhealthy in New York, very unhealthy in Cleveland, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Washington, and hazardous in Chicago, Columbus, Detroit, and Milwaukee. Be careful!

16 July

Proposal: Rather than test the military for low testosterone, we test for low IQ. That way, we can get a new Secretary of Defense.

cnn.comTruth Social will sell Wall Street quicker access to posts | CNN BusinessTruth Social will sell Wall Street firms quicker access to market-moving posts from President Donald Trump, the company said on Thursday.

16 July

Donald Trump is manipulating the stock market with his posts, and now he's selling early access to his posts so both he and Wall Street can profit from his manipulation. Meanwhile, he thinks your affordability crisis is a hoax. #VoteBlue www.cnn.com/2026/07/16/b....

15 July

The WastewaterSCAN #COVID19 dashboard is bouncing around this week. Most of the sewersheds with elevated levels of COVID (4 of the top 6 at present) are in Florida. If we eliminated FL, we might not be having much of a surge at all. (I mean, it's not much of a surge anyway thus far.) FL chart:

jamanetwork.comChildren’s Birthday Gatherings and SARS-CoV-2 Infection in GrandparentsThis cohort study uses Danish registry data to examine the association of grandchild birthdays, as a proxy for opportunity for social gathering, with SARS-CoV-2 infection in grandparents.

14 July

STUDY: "Grandparents had 9.9% higher hazard of #COVID19 infection during birthday risk windows. The risk was greater for birthdays of preschool-aged grandchildren (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.15) than during birthdays of school-aged grandchildren (AHR, 1.07)." jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

12 July

“I will choose to remember the time before Trump. Because I believe in an America after Trump.” - Hunter Biden

tandfonline.comEvaluation of long-term healthcare utilization and costs associated with COVID-19 among adults and children in the USThis study assessed long-term healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) and direct medical costs associated with COVID-19 among adults and children in the United States. Using a large national claims ...

12 July

STUDY of patients with a #COVID19 diagnosis between June 1 and November 30, 2022, finds that total healthcare costs during 11 months of post-acute follow-up were 27% higher among adults and 42% higher among pediatric patients with COVID-19 compared to controls. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

medium.comCOVID Is Rising for the First Time in 2026: Update for July 11, 2026For several years, I provided weekly updates on COVID risks in the US. I suspended them three months ago, with COVID falling to near-record…

11 July

I've posted a detailed update on #COVID19 risks in the US. The CDC's NWSS isn't showing much of a trend, but WastewaterSCAN suggests COVID has more than doubled in a month. It still looks less like a broad national surge than like a series of brief, localized surges. medium.com/@augieray_66...

8 July

Both the level of #COVID19 in US wastewater and the positive rate of testing have almost doubled in the past 3 weeks. We're still WELL below the levels in past lulls, but we might not be within two or three weeks at this rate. 1/3

8 July

Starting this late, we can expect this surge to peak in late August. Starting this low, it's still likely to continue our trend toward consecutively lower surges--but time will tell. 2/3

8 July

At the current time, around 1 in 853 actively infectious, on average. The sewersheds that are surging the most at present are in FL, TX, AL, and CA. (The south and west can expect worse surges than the Northeast and Midwest in summer.) 3/3

7 July

The positive rate of #COVID19 testing is rising, which signifies our summer surge is underway. The positive rate is still low relative to past lulls (1.5% now vs ~2% for lulls in 2025), but the trend is definitely rising at this point. Wastewater data was interrupted by the holiday weekend.

3 July

No new wastewater data from the CDC today due to the holiday. #COVID19 is rising in the US for the first time since December, based on WastewaterSCAN's incomplete data. The positive rate is also gently rising. Thus far, the rise is modest and not accelerating. 1/2

3 July

Even with the recent rise, levels are still more than 75% lower than the LOWEST levels we saw from mid-2022 to mid-2025. If this develops into a true summer surge (and I think it may), it is likely to be the lowest surge since 2020.