george

Outperform the S&P 500 with actionable stock ideas every month! Let’s grow, learn, and make investing fun—just remember: this isn’t financial advice. www.beatingthetide.com

ECO's 94% spot exposure is the whole story. No contract cover means a tanker rate change hits earnings within a quarter or two. That's not a moat, it's a bet on the cycle. #ValueInvesting #Shipping https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/eco-the-tanker-i-wanted-to-chase

I do ~5 paid expert calls per company or industry at ~$1,500 USD a pop. That is the real cost of the research behind each pick and update. Raising Substack revenue would let me double that number. #ValueInvesting #stocks https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/portfolio-down-30-percent

Operating cash flow fell 13% at DELL in a quarter where net income grew 255%. Financing receivables went from $14.3B in January to $20.4B in July. That gap is the whole story. #stocks #ValueInvesting https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/ai-sell-off-bond-market

Understanding what leverage tells you about a company's risk and opportunity. It's a key piece of the puzzle for $SPY. #RiskManagement #CorporateFinance #FinancialInsights https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/the-markets-binary-problem

For some, wealth is being debt-free. For others, it's retiring early or owning property. There's no universal answer — and that's the point. Define it for yourself. $SPY #Investing #FinancialFreedom #Wealth https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/what-is-wealth-money-and-freedom

DXPE: Q4 revenue $470.9M, +15% y/y. EPS $1.38, beat by $0.49. IPS revenue +47.7%, driven by water infrastructure. Stock at $78, off 22% from $100. The market is selling a great business because of Trump's tariff theater. I'm buying the dip.… https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/dxpes-earnings-shine-but

Micron's $1,678 DCF target doesn't need peak margins. It needs the customer agreements to hold and normalized economics to play out. That's a bet I'm comfortable holding. #MU https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/mu-micron-stock-q4-target

2.7k members in the chat group. Some of you have jumped on video calls with me to go deep on specific names. That back-and-forth is the best part of this whole thing and it costs me nothing but time. #ValueInvesting #PortfolioUpdate https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/portfolio-down-30-percent

Expensive frontier tokens go to RankedStocks.com. Everything else goes to Muse. The 14% weekly limit usage is the whole argument. #AI #ValueInvesting https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/mu-micron-stock-q4-target

GSL's run is understandable: raised dividend, renewed charters, $3.2B contracted revenue with 100% of 2026 and 90% of 2027 covered. That's contract quality, not momentum. #stocks https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/eco-the-tanker-i-wanted-to-chase

Everyone talks about buying fear. Few actually do it when their own position is red. I am 20% underwater on a business that just set a profit record and grew book value 32%. The quarterly noise is loud. The annual trend is cle… https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/earnings-doubled-stock-fell-target-cut

SYF Q2 scorecard: purchase volume +8%, loan receivables +2%, net earnings -8%, expenses +7%, efficiency ratio 35.8%, CET1 down 100 bps y/y to 13.2%. EPS grew because share count fell 12%. That's buybacks, not an earnings engine. https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/synchrony-financial-syf-stock-sale

CDE trim list. Record Q2 FCF of $388M but FY26 guidance cut to $1.5B. My DCF target is $19.47, market is $20.58. The stock trades above fair value with a guidance trajectory moving lower. That combination says trim, not add. #sto… https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/coeur-cde-stock-cash-flow-valuation

Portfolio fell 9.1% this week versus the S&P 500's 2.0%. Painful, but this is the drawdown I positioned for. Cash in Chile is moving to IBKR next week. #PortfolioUpdate #stocks https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/ai-sell-off-bond-market

Adding quality, improving companies to your portfolio is a long-term strategy. Look for businesses with solid fundamentals that are constantly getting better, even if their progress isn't alwa… https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/stop-fighting-your-nature-q2-2025-earnings-season-powl-cls-dxpe-lrn-opfi

Four independent ILC earnings drivers improved in 6M26: Banco Internacional, Habitat/AAISA, RedSalud, and Consalud. Profit +44.7%. Bought with a CLP 38,300 target. #Chile #ValueInvesting https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/ilc-inversionles-la-construccion-three-engines-one-mispriced-holding

$POWL maintains zero debt & $545M in cash! A fortress balance sheet provides resilience & flexibility for future growth initiatives. True financial strength. #DebtFree #CashRich #FinancialStability https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/powl-update-holding-1055-percent-unicorn-fair-value-q2-fy2026

Portfolio: DELL reports this week. STRT closed at $75 after FY27 caution. We're at $81.56 cash. Trimmed before the drop. #PortfolioUpdate https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/blockchain-real-estate-middlemen

ILC doesn't need today's 26.1% LTM ROAE to hold. Model it at ~17% sustainable, grow book to CLP 18,200 per share, apply 2.1x. That's CLP 38,300. Bought it. #ValueInvesting #stocks https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/ilc-inversionles-la-construccion-three-engines-one-mispriced-holding

September inflation came in hot, the 10-year touched 5.33%, and the AI trade cracked. The sell-off started in the bond market, not in AI demand. Watch rates, not headlines. #stocks #Bonds https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/ai-sell-off-bond-market

I passed on GSL in Nov 2025. It's up 29% since. My portfolio is up 51% over the same stretch. Missing a winner isn't a loss if the capital kept compounding. #ValueInvesting #stocks https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/eco-the-tanker-i-wanted-to-chase

$DELL is perfectly positioned for the enterprise infrastructure shift to AI clusters & dense compute. Record AI server orders & backlog show a massive demand wave that's only growing. #AIServers #EnterpriseTech #Dell https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/deep-dive-the-market-is-confusing

The best investors understand that markets are nuanced. A record quarter doesn't guarantee a stock rise; expectations always play a role ($AGX). #MarketNuance #InvestorPsychology #Expectations https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/80-20-rule-investing-celestica-cls-argan-agx

DELL closed Friday at $452, down 23% on the week — right at my $450 bear case. I moved it from BUY to HOLD in September at $524. The cash flow told the story before Barclays did. #stocks #PortfolioUpdate https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/ai-sell-off-bond-market

A subscriber asked what I do when my portfolio is down 30%. Short answer: I rarely hedge, I use margin selectively, and I size positions so a 30% drawdown never forces a sale. Full breakdown in this week's Thought of the Week. #PortfolioUp… https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/portfolio-down-30-percent

The market is a weighing machine. It rewards those who think in years, not days. Stay the course. $SPY #Investing #LongTerm #StayTheCourse https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/weekly-12-lets-be-sharks

DeepSeek's $6M breakthrough is a wake-up call. The AI race isn't just about who spends the most—it's about who innovates smartest. $SPY #AI #Innovation #Investing https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/agi-global-superpower

Boring, cash-generative, mispriced: that's our portfolio. STRT was not after FY27 warning. Sold at $81.56. Now $75. DELL next. https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/blockchain-real-estate-middlemen

Companies with a disciplined approach to cost control and clear plans for scaling their offerings are well-positioned for future margin expansion. $SPY #CostControl #Efficiency #FutureProfits https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/while-the-rest-chase-victory-the-best-avoid-losing

The bull case is easy after a 126% run. The real work is asking what breaks it. Refining margins mean-revert, war premiums fade, and a stock priced for perfect conditions has nowhere to hide. I stress-test the downside bef… https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/december-energy-pick-126-percent-still-buy

Trimmed DELL to fund the September bank pick alongside the SYF exit. Two funding sources, one destination. The new position offers better upside, clearer downside protection, and visible catalysts. #ValueInvesting https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/synchrony-financial-syf-stock-sale

David Einhorn, Bill Perkins, Dan Shak. All hedge fund managers. All poker players. Warren Buffett even played in Berkshire's private poker tournaments. The overlap between poker and investing is real. $SPY #Investing #Poker #HedgeFunds https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/poker-investing-strategies

No hedge here: I bought ILC. Target CLP 38,300, +50% from reference. Bank taking share, pensions growing, RedSalud scaling, Consalud back to profit. Book value compounding is the thesis. #ValueInv… https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/ilc-inversionles-la-construccion-three-engines-one-mispriced-holding

I bought CDE through my NGD holding in March. Rotated from IAG into NGD in June 2025. Position up 64% since the initial pick. Now trimming because the valuation leaves no margin for error. #PortfolioUpdate #stocks https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/coeur-cde-stock-cash-flow-valuation

$OPFI's "Model 6" AI is a game-changer! Approving 4 out of 5 applications without human help means faster decisions, consistent outcomes & better unit economics. That's smart growth! #AI #Efficiency #FinTechInnovation $OPFI https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/q2-2025-earnings-ai-investing

ECO screen check: overall 94, profitability 99, sentiment 99, outlook 90, growth 67, valuation 53. The valuation score is the only one that matters here. #ValueInvesting #stocks https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/eco-the-tanker-i-wanted-to-chase

Expected value thinking separates sharks from amateurs. It applies to poker, investing, and life. Every decision has probabilities and payoffs. Calculate EV. Avoid -EV moves. Maximize +EV opportunities. Repeat. $SPY #Investing #EV #LifeSk… https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/poker-investing-strategies

While the $SPX falls, our portfolio keeps climbing, widening the gap to 4.7x the market since inception. True investing wisdom means finding strength amidst market noise. Stay strategic! #InvestingWisdom https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/coeur-mining-cde-deep-dive-investment-thesis-stock-analysis

DELL is at an all-time high of $524. I bought at $123. Q2 revenue +58%, backlog $95B. Target: $601. But the question isn't what it did — it's what it will do. Answer: 15% upside. Trim time. $DELL https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/dell-q2-fy2027-update-95-billion-ai-backlog-buy-to-hold

Newborn and toddler asleep at the same time. Rare window. Watched Soulm8te instead of doing research. Sometimes the best trade is taking the two hours. #DadLife https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/mu-micron-stock-q4-target

Define wealth for yourself. Not for the algorithm, not for the neighbors, not for the market. Then invest like it. $SPY #Investing #Wealth #FinancialFreedom https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/what-is-wealth-money-and-freedom

19 portfolio companies reported earnings. Only 4 missed revenue. 4 missed EPS. That's a 79% hit rate. Not because I'm lucky—because I focus on quality. Do the same. $SPY #Investing #QualityStocks #EarningsSeason https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/the-fast-and-slow-investor

Only 28% of Americans trust banks. That distrust is exactly why they keep their pricing power. Unpopular industries with regulatory moats are where I hunt for value. Sentiment is not a thesis. #Contrarian #Banking #ValueInvesting https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/september-pick-update-fine-q3-rates

The best investment gifts add value over time. Think beyond fleeting trends and focus on compounding wealth. $SPY #SustainableInvesting #GiftOfKnowledge #FinancialLiteracy https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/weekly-56-why-passive-taking-over

Warren Buffett played poker. David Einhorn, Bill Perkins, and Dan Shak are poker players. The overlap between poker and investing is real. Math, critical thinking, and emotional control are the shared skills. $SPY #Investing #Poker #Warre… https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/poker-investing-strategies

ILC target math: CLP 18,200 equity per share by end-2027, 2.1x book = CLP 38,300. That's ~17% sustainable ROE at a 10.5% cost of equity and 4.5% growth. Reasonable, not heroic. #Chile #stocks https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/ilc-inversionles-la-construccion-three-engines-one-mispriced-holding

Our December pick is up 126% and just passed my old price target. I published a paid update explaining why that target isn't my sell signal. Trimming on price targets alone has cost me more than it's saved. #stocks #ValueInvesting https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/portfolio-down-30-percent

ECO posted a record Q2 2026 and pays a $5.25 quarterly dividend. The forward multiple looks like 4.9x. It's not. 94% spot exposure means those earnings reset fast when rates cool. #ValueInvesting #stocks https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/eco-the-tanker-i-wanted-to-chase

Micron raised to $1,678 DCF after Q4. Record quarter, yes — but the customer agreements are what protect the thesis if the cycle rolls over. #Micron #ValueInvesting https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/mu-micron-stock-q4-target

Markets hit S&P 6,100 but the real story is the AGI race. China's DeepSeek built cutting-edge AI for $6M while Meta spends $65B. Technology has always shifted global power—gunpowder, nukes, Sputnik. $SPY #AI #Investing #Geopolitics https://www.beatingthetide.com/p/agi-global-superpower