Ben Glasner

It remains shocking to me that we have seen a full scale reversal of the post-COVID trend in wage growth. Since March 2025, real wages are down across the distribution. Only the 25th is up (+1%). let’s look at how odd this is in the context of the last 40+ years. @innovateeconomy.bsky.social

Since 1982, 90/50 is up 27% and 90/10 up 16%, while 50/10 is down 9%: the bottom closed on the middle while the top pulled away from both. The lesson: wage inequality appears to expand during times of stagnation, and growth is the recipe for stabilizing it or even fighting it.

It remains shocking to me that we have seen a full scale reversal of the post-COVID trend in wage growth. Since March 2025, real wages are down across the distribution. Only the 25th is up (+1%). let’s look at how odd this is in the context of the last 40+ years. @innovateeconomy.bsky.social

Then, the COVID-19 aftermath. COVID screws with wages: low-wage workers lost jobs first, and that composition effect raised measured wages. So we index to Jan 2022, once the effect had largely cleared: the 10th and 90th gained 8%, the 25th 6%, the 50th and 75th 3%.

It remains shocking to me that we have seen a full scale reversal of the post-COVID trend in wage growth. Since March 2025, real wages are down across the distribution. Only the 25th is up (+1%). let’s look at how odd this is in the context of the last 40+ years. @innovateeconomy.bsky.social

And just like that, we hit the Long Wage Stagnation 2: Electric Boogaloo. Over 164 months the 90th percentile gained 13% and the 75th 7%. The 10th and median gained 5%, the 25th 2%. Median growth: 0.4% a year. Unemployment averaged 6.6%.

It remains shocking to me that we have seen a full scale reversal of the post-COVID trend in wage growth. Since March 2025, real wages are down across the distribution. Only the 25th is up (+1%). let’s look at how odd this is in the context of the last 40+ years. @innovateeconomy.bsky.social

Cardiff and I label the first portion the first long wage stagnation (really it started back in the 70s). In 165 months, the 90th percentile gained 12%. The 25th, median, and 75th gained 1% to 3%. The 10th fell 3%. Unemployment averaged 6.6%. Make America Not This Again.

It remains shocking to me that we have seen a full scale reversal of the post-COVID trend in wage growth. Since March 2025, real wages are down across the distribution. Only the 25th is up (+1%). let’s look at how odd this is in the context of the last 40+ years. @innovateeconomy.bsky.social

I’m going to pull from the full piece, "The Chart that Explains Work in America," just finished with Cardiff Garcia here: agglomerations.eig.org/p/the-chart-...

US wage earners at 35, in 2025 dollars: Boomer $46,023 → Millennial $60,630. Obviously the workforce has changed and expectations around quality of life changed with it. A median, 40 years apart, is not in fact the same mix of people. What about men and women by education?

Split the men at 35, in 2025 dollars. With a degree: $88,137 → $99,814 Without: $53,727 → $52,473 But ... ~20% of Boomer men had a degree at 35 and ~40% of Millennials did. The lines are not actually the same "group" and we shouldn't conflate based on easy coded labels.

July payrolls fell 23,000, so it might be a good time to reevaluate the hiring pickup narrative. The three-month average is now just 20,000, against a pre-pandemic normal near 177,000.

A frozen job market means no outside offers, limited bargaining, and low leverage. When the tight labor market disappears, so does the wage growth. Average hourly earnings rose just 3.2% over the past year — the weakest reading since May 2021.

July payrolls fell 23,000, so it might be a good time to reevaluate the hiring pickup narrative. The three-month average is now just 20,000, against a pre-pandemic normal near 177,000.

The revisions did more damage to the story than the print itself. BLS cut May's gain 66,000 and June's 37,000. About four and a half times July's own −23,000 decline. It is worth caution on the read since a single-month move is noisy, but still worth thinking on.

Well, if we are rehashing the election, friendly reminder that the biggest declines in vote shares for Harris took place in the most expensive and most populous counties. The drop was a huge break from the trend line.

Are your single friends making us "poorer"? Obviously not, but the way we count household income means more one-person households *can* look poorer than a world with more married couples even if no single person earns a dollar less.

what if 2024 income (via 2025 CPS ASEC) was kept at the 1969's household mix? Median household income would look about $22,000 higher. That is huge. It is equivalent to ~75 percent of the actual real gain since 1969.

Are your single friends making us "poorer"? Obviously not, but the way we count household income means more one-person households *can* look poorer than a world with more married couples even if no single person earns a dollar less.

Trump's new EO is a real step toward fixing the U.S. retirement system. We spend hundreds of billions a year in tax breaks to fund retirement savings and the top 20% of households capture more than 60%. 54 million private-sector workers, nearly half, have no plan at work.

More than 53 million U.S. workers don’t have access to an employer-provided retirement plan. That fact puts today’s “$955 saved” headlines in context — the retirement crisis is fundamentally about access.

Any serious response to the retirement savings crisis has to start with expanding workplace access, especially for low-income, rural, and part-time workers.

More than 53 million U.S. workers don’t have access to an employer-provided retirement plan. That fact puts today’s “$955 saved” headlines in context — the retirement crisis is fundamentally about access.

Zooming out, about two-thirds of the bottom half of workers by income lack access to a workplace plan — versus just one-quarter of the top half. The system works primarily for higher earners.

More than 53 million U.S. workers don’t have access to an employer-provided retirement plan. That fact puts today’s “$955 saved” headlines in context — the retirement crisis is fundamentally about access.

Even among full-time private-sector workers, access is far from universal: 42% lack access to any workplace retirement plan. In absolute terms, that’s 40.6 million full-time workers left out.