Jessica Berlin

Jessica Berlin

@berlinbridge.bsky.social

Security & geopolitics | Previously based in 🇦🇫🇨🇳🇲🇲🇷🇼🇬🇧🇺🇸 | Capital Germany 40 under 40 | ☕ http://buymeacoffee.com/jberlin | Don’t just get mad, get busy | https://berlinbridge.substack.com/subscribe

39.4K followers184 following501 posts

Over the past 2 weeks I’ve met with defense tech and cyber whizzes, soldiers, officers, policymakers, diplomats, and security experts from countries across Europe and beyond. We have one message for Ukraine: You are not alone. We have one message for Russia: You are going down.

A huge amount of Germany’s intelligence comes from tips from our allies. Our intelligence agencies are notorious underachievers at, erm, gathering actual intelligence. Imagine how eager allies will be to share with us after this latest debacle.

Schröder. Maaßen. Now Hanning. These aren’t isolated scandals. It’s systemic and ongoing for decades: the German government and security establishment are compromised. This case was discovered by accident. Anyone who thinks we’ve found the last breach is kidding themselves.

Mark Chadbourn@chadbourn.bsky.social

Germany has arrested former spy chief August Hanning in a suspected espionage and treason case involving highly classified intelligence on Iran’s nuclear programme and the Russian military.

Anyone still whining that we need more diplomacy with Russia, while the Russians respond to all diplomatic efforts by killing more Ukrainian civilians, is just helping spread the Kremlin’s propaganda.

Mit dem Treffen zwischen Lawrow und Wadephul stellt die deutsche Regierung wieder einmal ihre Strategielosigkeit und Selbsttäuschung zur Schau. Was sie als diplomatische Initiative betrachtet, wird vom Kreml als weiterer Beweis Deutschlands Schwäche und Leichtgläubigkeit gewertet.

I’m not concerned about an imminent direct military assault from Russia. I am concerned about Russia unleashing a sabotage swarm across Europe: plausibly deniable bombings, cyber and arson attacks and ‘accidental’ drone strikes that sow chaos and cost lives across the continent.

Europe’s failure to punish Russia despite years of sabotage, airspace violations, assassinations & attempted bombings emboldened the Kremlin & showed them their tactics work. Our leaders’ weakness invited escalation. It’s now likely too late for deterrence. We need to prepare.

Drones over Lithuania, flares fired at Danish aircraft, the Polish border strike. These attacks are a direct result of Europe’s weak response to Leipzig & all other provocations. It’s past time. The EU must ban Russian tourists. NATO must help defend western Ukrainian airspace.

An alle, die glauben, die AfD werde sich irgendwie mäßigen, sobald sie regiert: Nein. So läuft der rechte Hase nicht. Genau das haben viele Republikaner über Trump gesagt. Wie ist das ausgegangen?

Und nein, darauf zu hoffen, dass die Wähler es nach 4 Jahren schon merken werden, ist auch keine Strategie. Siehe wieder Trump: 4 Jahre Chaos, Sturm aufs Kapitol, trotzdem wiedergewählt – und heute noch extremer, dreister und gefährlicher, als man sich vor der Wahl 2016 je hätte vorstellen können.

It has taken nearly a month for the German government to state the obvious: Russia was behind the Leipzig airport attack. An announcement of what consequences Russia will face expected later today. Merz apparently not bothering to announce it himself so I doubt Putin is worried

Even if CIA Director Ratcliffe flew to Moscow to warn Putin against attacking Europe — so what? Then-CIA Director Burns flew to Moscow in Nov 2021 to warn against invading Ukraine. How’d that go? This changes nothing for Europe. We must deter Russia now — and arm Ukraine to win.

Russian airspace violations in Finland. A Russian bomb at a German airport. A bomb-laden Russian sea drone at a Romanian gas plant. Russia is attacking Nato by land, sea & air. Now, because we’re not ready. Our leaders must wake up & warn the people: Russia is at war with us.

Europe isn’t ready or able to defend itself against Russia. And we can’t rely on Trump’s America. But Nato-Europe has an ally more reliable than Article 5: Ukraine. If Russia attacks, Ukraine will come to our aid. Immediately, despite no treaty. They are our greatest defense.

Prime Minister @andyburnham said security would be his first priority — this appointment puts the Treasury where his mouth is. John Healey leading the Exchequer sends a strong signal to Europe, Ukraine, Washington, and above all the Kremlin: Britain means business on defence.

Last night, Russia attacked a European capital with over 40 ballistic missiles. That leads nowhere in European news headlines this morning. Russian terror, murder and destruction are simply taken in stride as a normal story.

It is astonishing that @TheEconomist expects us to believe this interview wasn’t pre-approved by the Kremlin. Also, “Russia’s most enigmatic oligarch”? Really? Melnichenko is a key member of the Kremlin-linked business elite, not some mysterious outsider. Stop romanticizing him.

Congrats to @TheEconomist on their launch of “Russia’s Most Enigmatic Oligarch.” Pilot episode: Convince readers that a sanctioned Kremlin billionaire whose fertilizer empire helped supply Russia’s explosives industry is really just a mysterious free thinker who wants change 🥹

As Americans, Lindsey Graham & I didn’t agree on much. But in Kyiv in 2022, that didn’t matter. He was there to aid a far greater cause & embraced all allies in it, even across deep political divides. His tireless commitment to Ukraine will remain an honorable part of his legacy.

In a propaganda rant, former FSB head & paranoid Putin advisor Nikolai Patrushev called Estonia, Latvia, & Lithuania "Baltic mice" pulling at a "cat with nuclear claws". Here, kitty kitty.

For 250yrs America‘s greatest power has been reinvention. Reinvention of power & who wields it. Of identities & industries, statecraft & storytelling, machines & music, of the very limits of human possibility. But its ceaseless reinvention isn’t manifestly destined to result in a more perfect union.

Americans today must decide whether they reinvent their USA into something stronger and more just than what came before, or into a debased mockery of the founders’ vision. Whether they make America great again, or let it fall like yet another spent empire.

Russia can’t stop Ukraine from blowing up their weapons & oil infrastructure. So they blow up Ukrainian homes, playgrounds, cafes, hospitals, schools, museums, churches... Forget morals for a moment — do the math & tell me which side is winning. Now morals back on: Fuck Russia.

Russia’s ability to fuel and defend their occupation of Crimea is being degraded day by day. Bridges, roads, rail, air defenses, ammo, fuel depots, trucks all going up in flames. And Ukraine is still saving the best for last. The Kerch countdown is running.

Russia’s cover is blown. There is no unbeatable Russia. Just a dying empire madly trying to destroy what they can’t conquer. Political & business leaders worldwide who believed the ‘mighty Russia’ myth & thought Ukraine had no chance now watch Moscow burn. The tide is turning.

I step into a cafe where I work some mornings. Hadn’t read the news yet. The barista is Ukrainian. My friendly ‘morning!’ is met with a weak smile. I know what it means. ‘What happened?’ ‘Pechersk Lavra is burning.’

Imagine waking every morning to the dread of finding out who Russia has killed, what Russia has destroyed in the night. Every day, for over four years. I’ll say here what I said to her: this is Russia losing. Blind rage and destruction because they have no viable strategy, no path to victory.

It doesn’t make this any better, it doesn’t bring lost loved ones or national treasures back. But it is true. Fascist Russia will destroy itself. And Ukraine will survive, will win, will rebuild. You are not alone.

Ireland: occupied for centuries by imperial invaders who brutally suppressed their language & identity; endured torture, murder, sexual violence, hunger. They bravely resisted & live free today. More than anyone in Western Europe, Ireland should understand & stand with Ukraine.

In Feb. 2022 I dropped everything & paused my normal work to help Ukraine. Four years, 14 trips to 🇺🇦 & even two beautiful babies later, that ‘pause’ never ended. If you appreciate my work, you can buy me a coffee (or babysitter :) here: Paypal: jessica@costruct.co buymeacoffee.com/jberlin