casey briggs

casey briggs

@caseybriggs.com

numbers gremlin. i invented ravioli • do NOT contact me with unsolicited services or offers

8.7K followers329 following433 posts

We've today launched our guide to November's Victorian state election, with guides to all 88 lower house electorates and candidates and preview material. This will continue to be updated as the election approaches. Will share some links in this thread:

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We've today launched our guide to November's Victorian state election, with guides to all 88 lower house electorates and candidates and preview material. This will continue to be updated as the election approaches. Will share some links in this thread:

View full thread

We've today launched our guide to November's Victorian state election, with guides to all 88 lower house electorates and candidates and preview material. This will continue to be updated as the election approaches. Will share some links in this thread:

David Shoebridge won the Greens leadership vote on first preferences, but the party announced the two-candidate-preferred result anyway. Gotta love the commitment to ranked choice voting

Labor has overwhelmingly won the remote voting booths and has gained the seat of Mulka. Yiwarr McGrath will be the new Labor MP for the remote seat in eastern Arnhem Land. Labor now holds 6 seats in the 25-member legislative assembly, while the CLP holds 17.

One Nation has won the Secret Harbour state by-election in Perth's south. Gym owner Luke Herdegen will represent the party in Western Australia's lower house, winning the seat which was previously held by Labor on an 11.5 per cent margin.

Independent Yiŋiya Guyula has quit NT parliament in protest of the CLP government, meaning a by-election is imminent in his seat of Mulka. It takes in Nhulunbuy and the north east and was held by Labor from 1980-2016, when it became independent held www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08...

abc.net.auNT politician Yiŋiya Guyula resigns, labelling CLP policies 'dehumanising'The independent member for Mulka, Yiŋiya Guyula, has resigned from Northern Territory parliament effective immediately, saying the Country Liberal Party's "dehumanising" legislation is part of his decision.

Jacinta Allan may have won a rank and file ballot if she’d contested, but would she have won with a big enough margin to offset her defeat in the caucus vote? Seems like a tall order

Vic Labor rules mean a leadership contest won’t be resolved in one meeting. Nominations will be open for three days, unless 80% of the caucus agree to shorten it to a 24 hour period. It means Jacinta Allan could be removed Tuesday, but Ben Carroll not elected until Wednesday

Jacinta Allan may intend to contest a leadership contest, but would she be able to get the required nominations from 20% of caucus members? If a spill motion has passed it seems unlikely you’d find that many MPs who think a weeks long contest is a good idea

The Allan govt may be about to follow in the footsteps of every other state, abolish group voting tickets, and put voters in full control of preferences. If it doesn’t, expect November’s ballot to be stacked with tricks. Here’s a look at some of them. www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07...

abc.net.auThe new political parties hoping to deceive 'useful idiots' in VictoriaNew political parties are seeking to exploit Victoria's anachronistic electoral system in the upper house to harvest voters' preferences and funnel them wherever they please.
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The party “End Mass Immigration – Reform AU”, which last year was called the “Companion and Pets Party”, now wants to be displayed on the ballot as the “Christian Alliance Party”.

All this is currently completely legal, and not a new tactic.   But in November, when voters are confronted with a massive ballot paper full of landmines and tricks, what are they to make of this?

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The Fusion Party – with its platform of “confronting the climate emergency and reversing global warming” – has applied for registration and wants to use the name of Monica Smit’s group “Reignite Democracy” on November’s ballot

There’s an application for “The Republican Make Australia Great Again” party. Several parties are changing their ballot name: the Freedom Party wants to be called “Safety Victoria - Violent Crime Prevention”, the New Democrats want “Put Australia First, Save the Environment”

group voting tickets put significant power over who wins election in the hands of backroom operators and party negotiators They encourage games that are ultimately designed to deceive voters.  And we’ve see a flood of new parties trying to join the fray in this election

There’s the ‘Climate Action Now’ party, launched by Monica Smit, the founder of anti-vaccine and anti-lockdown group Reignite Democracy Australia.    Her brother Daniel Smit leads the “I’m Voting To Avoid The Fine” party Both want to send preferences to parties like One Nation

WA Labor minister Paul Papalia is retiring after 19yrs as member for Secret Harbour. He retained the seat with an 11.5% margin in the 2025 state election. One Nation contested ~40 seats last election and had one of its better results (8.4%) in this seat www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07...

abc.net.auBy-election to follow minister's resignation amid One Nation surgeWA Labor stalwart and senior state cabinet minister Paul Papalia has announced he is quitting politics after nearly two decades, triggering a by-election in his southern Perth seat.

Not fully logging off, but definitely logging in less as I take some leave in the gap between elections, before I turn my focus to elections in the two most populous states in November and March

This is an interesting alignment of votes in SA's lower house for Family First MLC Sarah Game's abortion bill There were 9 votes in favour: all 4 One Nation MPs + the Premier, Treasurer, Police Minister, Opposition Leader, and the Shadow Infrastructure Minister

South Australia’s Electoral Commissioner Mick Sherry has resigned. He has been on personal leave since the state election and Voice election, which was beset by problems including misplaced ballots and inadequate polling booth staff.

The state government plans to introduce legislation to delay local council elections until next year at the request of the acting SA Electoral Commissioner.

Roy Morgan have defined a set of customer personas/market segments using "deep psychographic insights" tag yourself I'm "Young and Platinum", whatever that means

More party registration news in Victoria: The “End Mass Immigration - Reform AU” party, a party that was last year called the “Companions and Pets Party”, is now changing its ballot paper name to the “Christian Alliance Party”

The AEC has published detailed preference flow data from the Farrer by-election. This table shows definitively how the first preference votes for each candidate flowed between One Nation and Michelle Milthorpe.

69.1%of Nationals #1 votes eventually ended up with One Nation, compared to 59% of Liberal votes. 91.8% of Greens votes ended up with Michelle Milthorpe.

The acting commissioner says she's worried the election could see similar issues as were seen in the state election: “I’m concerned that without adequate time to prepare and to submit critical findings from the independent review that we may carry through some of the same challenges"

I understand there are at most ~2,000 postal votes to be added in Stafford (not all of these will actually be returned to the electoral commission). Not enough runway for the LNP to turn the margin around.