Chris Bangert-Drowns

The collapse of trade talks with Canada puts the U.S. on unsure footing with its second-largest trading partner. The over 10% of all U.S. imports originating from our northern neighbor have faced a lower average tariff rate compared to other countries, but that could soon change.

U.S. manufacturers depending on parts from Canada, particularly in northern states, could be forced into procuring costly inputs from more distant sources, including Mexico and East Asia, just as the U.S. is threatening a “transshipment” crackdown on those areas.

The collapse of trade talks with Canada puts the U.S. on unsure footing with its second-largest trading partner. The over 10% of all U.S. imports originating from our northern neighbor have faced a lower average tariff rate compared to other countries, but that could soon change.

Section 338 allows for the outright banning of certain imports, as well as the imposition of tariffs on third-party countries. Such powers have never been used, but the Trump administration has proven itself capable of broadly interpreting similar legal authorities.

The collapse of trade talks with Canada puts the U.S. on unsure footing with its second-largest trading partner. The over 10% of all U.S. imports originating from our northern neighbor have faced a lower average tariff rate compared to other countries, but that could soon change.

🧵 Digging into this morning’s tepid jobs numbers highlights some key weaknesses in the U.S. economy. First, participation continues to erode - an estimated ~264k people left the labor force in July, following a ~720k decline in June.

The U.S. economy is facing headwinds from elevated input costs, the seemingly intractable conflict with Iran, and policy uncertainty around trade and industrial investment. A weak labor market is both a symptom of those headwinds and a source of potential complications itself.

🧵 Digging into this morning’s tepid jobs numbers highlights some key weaknesses in the U.S. economy. First, participation continues to erode - an estimated ~264k people left the labor force in July, following a ~720k decline in June.

The participation rate and employment-population ratio are both down meaningfully from this time last year, accelerating a trend that emerged in the recovery from the COVID-19 recession. This comes amid warnings of labor shortages bottlenecking supply and driving up prices.

🧵 New tariffs taking effect this morning represent a deepening of this administration’s strategy of trade chaos and are a threat to U.S. workers and the economy under a thin justification of opposing forced labor.

Tariffs and a seemingly intractable (and avoidable) war in Iran are combining to produce chaos in global trade, suppressing economic growth across the planet, and threatening the dynamism and hegemony of the U.S. economy.

🧵 New tariffs taking effect this morning represent a deepening of this administration’s strategy of trade chaos and are a threat to U.S. workers and the economy under a thin justification of opposing forced labor.

This latest round of tariffs is sure to face legal pushback. Whether or not challenges prevail matters little in the short term, however. Businesses facing higher costs and an unclear future will hold off on the investments in workers and capital that drive U.S. economic growth.

🧵 New tariffs taking effect this morning represent a deepening of this administration’s strategy of trade chaos and are a threat to U.S. workers and the economy under a thin justification of opposing forced labor.

Let’s remember that an ideal tariff strategy is one that targets specific commodity groups or countries for well-defined economic reasons. Precision is key for maximum effect while minimizing disruption to our economy. These new tariffs do the opposite.

🧵 New tariffs taking effect this morning represent a deepening of this administration’s strategy of trade chaos and are a threat to U.S. workers and the economy under a thin justification of opposing forced labor.

The new rates, ranged 10-12.5%, cover nearly all U.S. imports and every major trading partner using Section 301 of the Trade Act on 1974, which until now had only been deployed to narrowly target imports over unfair trade actions.

🧵 Twin decisions from the Supreme Court this week could shake the U.S. economy by eroding confidence in federal policymaking. While SCOTUS rightly blocked the firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook (for now), its removal of protections for other agency leaders could be disastrous.

Research has shown policy uncertainty increases price volatility and depresses investment and job growth in sensitive industries, ultimately slowing overall economic growth. www.nber.org/papers/w21633

🧵 Twin decisions from the Supreme Court this week could shake the U.S. economy by eroding confidence in federal policymaking. While SCOTUS rightly blocked the firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook (for now), its removal of protections for other agency leaders could be disastrous.

@equitablegrowth.bsky.social Steering Committee member Daron Acemoglu showed in a 2008 paper that constraints on political influence improve the effectiveness of central bank policymaking across countries. ideas.repec.org/a/bin/bpeajo...

🧵 Twin decisions from the Supreme Court this week could shake the U.S. economy by eroding confidence in federal policymaking. While SCOTUS rightly blocked the firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook (for now), its removal of protections for other agency leaders could be disastrous.

The Court’s decision in Trump v Slaughter could prove destabilizing to the U.S. economy for the same reasons argued in the Cook case – markets don’t trust policymaking from institutions subject to partisan whim, and businesses struggle to plan around ideologically-driven policy.

The threat of a stadium worker strike on the eve of the World Cup underscores the power of union activity in the U.S., and provides a chance for economists to review what the evidence says about the impacts of unions (tldr: collective bargaining works!).

Workers at SoFi Stadium are organizing to secure these and other material gains including a demand ICE and CBP agents play no role during the World Cup to avoid the disruption and drag on local economic growth that can result from an immigration crackdown. northstarpolicy.org/leisure-and-...

The threat of a stadium worker strike on the eve of the World Cup underscores the power of union activity in the U.S., and provides a chance for economists to review what the evidence says about the impacts of unions (tldr: collective bargaining works!).

These gains for union workers translate to a reduction in economic inequality within firms and across society by raising wage floors, redistributing corporate profits to workers, and supporting more broad-based economic growth. workrisenetwork.org/working-know...

The threat of a stadium worker strike on the eve of the World Cup underscores the power of union activity in the U.S., and provides a chance for economists to review what the evidence says about the impacts of unions (tldr: collective bargaining works!).

A year ago today, President Trump hiked tariffs to levels unseen in the modern era, celebrating a “Liberation Day” for the U.S. economy. Since then, U.S. tariff policy has remained costly and highly uncertain, weighing on the ability of businesses to grow and hire more workers.

President Trump inherited an economy on track for years of stable growth but has upended that upward trajectory through volatile trade and foreign policy decisions. Committing to a reliable, narrowly targeted tariff policy would be a big step towards stabilizing the U.S. economy.

A year ago today, President Trump hiked tariffs to levels unseen in the modern era, celebrating a “Liberation Day” for the U.S. economy. Since then, U.S. tariff policy has remained costly and highly uncertain, weighing on the ability of businesses to grow and hire more workers.

A recent study from the Dallas Fed estimates a closure of the Hormuz, which carries ~20% of global oil supplies, will cause an immediate hit to global GDP of -2.9%. That means reduced demand for U.S. exports and slower domestic growth. www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...

A year ago today, President Trump hiked tariffs to levels unseen in the modern era, celebrating a “Liberation Day” for the U.S. economy. Since then, U.S. tariff policy has remained costly and highly uncertain, weighing on the ability of businesses to grow and hire more workers.

The latest tariff research on industry-level input costs from @equitablegrowth.bsky.social shows key sectors – manufacturing, construction, and extractive industries – faced substantial tariff costs in 2025, with little respite for burdened businesses. equitablegrowth.org/tariff-polic...

A year ago today, President Trump hiked tariffs to levels unseen in the modern era, celebrating a “Liberation Day” for the U.S. economy. Since then, U.S. tariff policy has remained costly and highly uncertain, weighing on the ability of businesses to grow and hire more workers.