UNSW Climate Change Research Centre

🌧️ New research evaluates regional, global, and AI weather models for hydrometeorological prediction in California. West-WRF improved short-range forecasts, notably reducing snow water equivalent errors by ~70% through improved snow initialization.

🤖 A wave of AI slop is coming for climate science. How can we respond? A new 21st Century Weather blog argues that the best defence is investing in people—retaining and upskilling scientists to use AI critically and effectively.

📢 Abstract submissions are now open for the Convection-Permitting Modelling Workshop 2027! 📍 UNSW Sydney 📅 1–4 February 2027 🌏 From global to regional to local climate modelling Submit your abstract by 15 October 2026.

🌡️ New research examines two decades of urban heat across 1,400 cities worldwide. Global exposure to extreme daytime heat rose by 51%, while hot nights became 47% more frequent in arid cities—highlighting growing heat risks in a warming world.

How did enormous Northern Hemisphere ice sheets reshape climate ~49,000 years ago? New modelling shows that their topography was a major driver of shifts in atmospheric circulation, influencing westerlies, tropical circulation and rainfall far beyond the ice sheets themselves

El Niño has a big impact on Australia's weather—but much less impact on the overall electricity grid than you might expect. Our new paper explains why.

🌩️ New research investigates severe wind gusts from convective storms. Results show that sub-kilometer-scale models are needed to capture the downdrafts driving the strongest gusts, and introduce the "shallow release hypothesis." Read more: doi.org/10.1016/j.wa...

🌊 New research explores imposter syndrome in the marine science community, sharing researchers' experiences and identifying ways to build a more supportive and inclusive research culture.

Congrats to Michael Eabry et al. on a paper finding no evidence that Zonal Wave 3 affects total Antarctic sea ice area: regional ice effects from alternating equatorward and poleward wind anomalies mostly cancel out when integrated over the ice‐edge.

New research from CCRC uses machine learning to map lightning occurrence across NSW. The study shows that terrain and geospatial characteristics alone capture meaningful lightning patterns, and also examines dry lightning—a key driver of wildfire risk.

New research from CCRC demonstrates a stable hybrid climate model with machine-learned atmospheric convection. The coupled atmosphere–ocean–land model runs for over a decade with minimal climate drift, highlighting the potential of hybrid physics–ML approaches for Earth system modelling.

The world's oceans have just recorded their hottest June on record—and with El Niño developing, even more heat may be on the way. 🌊🌡️ Why does this matter? Warmer oceans fuel marine heatwaves, reshape weather patterns, and increase the risk of extreme events worldwide.

A potential 2026-27 El Niño is drawing attention, but its impacts may depend strongly on its type. Our new JCLI paper revisits how Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific ENSO events affect Australian spring rainfall and explores the physical mechanisms behind those different rainfall patterns.

As Indonesia builds its new capital, how will urbanization affect heatwave risk? Using high-resolution simulations, our researchers found that urbanization increases temperatures in IKN, but humidity changes can partly offset heat stress impacts. Climate-informed urban planning is essential.

In a new paper led by Valentina Ortiz Guzmán, CCRC researchers show that stalling weather systems preferentially occur close to the east coast of every continent. They move slowly and produce extreme rainfall, increasing large-scale flood risks along these coasts.

In a new study published by @ioppublishing.bsky.social, Senior Lecturer @drjucker.bsky.social shows that estimating future rainfall increase by using a static 7% per degree warming might considerably underestimate rainfall produced by extratropical weather systems. @nsw-bnhrc.bsky.social

A new study from CCRC shows that anomalously warm sea surface temperatures along the East Australian Current intensified the 2022 extreme rainfall event in eastern Australia by enhancing moisture supply, strengthening onshore flow, and influencing the position of coastal low-pressure systems.

Greater Sydney is experiencing faster increases in short-duration extreme rainfall (5–10 min) than hourly events. Climate projections suggest up to a 125% rise in extremes by late century under SSP370, increasing flash flood risks for urban areas.

Congratulations to Mike on submitting his PhD thesis, “Linking Southern Hemisphere Circulation to Antarctic Sea Ice Variability and Extremes”! His research explores how atmospheric circulation patterns influenced Antarctic sea ice variability, including the extreme 2016 sea ice decline.

🌊 New episode of Lab Notes just dropped — exploring the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), why it matters for Earth’s climate, and what could happen if it slows down further.

New paper from CCRC researchers in Nature. Only ~13% of global land has sufficient rain gauge coverage, leaving many high-risk regions under-monitored. Targeted investment in observations is critical for climate risk planning and water security.

A new paper from @dresearchdson.bsky.social modeled Australia’s energy grid with 84 years of data and found winter is emerging as the season of greatest electricity supply risk. Variability in wind means some winters could be challenging due to prolonged low generation.

New research from CCRC and collaborators at the Met Office, published in Climate Dynamics. How reliably can Kelvin waves and the MJO be detected in short datasets? Wavelet methods outperform traditional FFT approaches. @unswbees.bsky.social @21stcenturyweather.bsky.social @metoffice.gov.uk

CCRC’s Senior Research Fellow @drjucker.bsky.social and Prof. Julie Arblaster from Monash Uni. talk about all things stratosphere in the newest episode of the @21st century weather Totally Cooked podcast. There are rockets,volcanoes, and penguins! Hear now at 21centuryweather.org.au/engage/total...

Researchers from our centre are participating in the CMIP Community Workshop 2026 in Kyoto. Prof. Lisa, Prof. @jasonpevans.bsky.social, Research Fellow Joaquin, and former fellows @pal14himadri.bsky.social & Loan are engaging with the global community on CMIP6 insights and the future of CMIP7.

A recent study by Huazhen,Andréa,Christine,and Ghyslaine classifies CMIP6 large ensembles into weaker, unchanged, and stronger ENSO futures. El Niño rainfall varies by pathway, but Dec–May La Niña rainfall increases across all scenarios. Congrats! Full read: journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

🚨Paper Congrats to Mohammad, @neginnazarian.bsky.social, and Gloria on their new paper. They assessed passive thermal retrofits via energy modelling & operative temp analysis for extreme indoor conditions in Sydney high-rise social housing under future warming. Read paper: doi.org/10.1007/978-...

🚨New paper This new study by Ying Lung Liu, Lisa Alexander and @jasonpevans.bsky.social disentangles ENSO and IOD influences on Australian spring climate, showing ENSO’s dominant role and underscoring the need for large ensembles for robust attribution. Full Paper: doi.org/10.1175/JCLI...