Center for European Policy Analysis

The shadow war has already arrived. Authoritarian states are attacking the infrastructure our economies depend on, below the threshold of open war. CEPA's new Global Shadow War Initiative charts how democratic allies get off the back foot and fight back. https://youtu.be/tjooqyRekQ8

Ukraine’s Medical Evacuations Go Airborne | “Multiple thousands of Ukrainian troops have lost limbs while trapped on an unforgiving frontline. Drone tech is seeking to restore military medicine’s ‘golden hour’.” David Kirichenko https://cepa.org/article/ukraines-medical-evacuations-go-airborne/

Action Needed to Get Ukraine’s Grain to the World | “Ukraine’s economy is heavily dependent on grain exports, but Moscow’s attacks are blocking the flow.” Olya Korbut https://cepa.org/article/action-needed-to-get-ukraines-grain-to-the-world/

Nostalgic Nightmares in Romania | “The country has made huge progress since joining the European Union. But danger signs are mounting.” William Echikson https://cepa.org/article/nostalgic-nightmares-in-romania/

Will Serbia’s Vote End the Vučić Era? | “He is gambling on his opponents struggling to convert their support on the streets into comparable success at the ballot box.” Ekaterina Kurbangaleeva https://cepa.org/article/will-serbias-vote-end-the-vucic-era/

Ukraine Combats AI Cyberattacks | “Russian artificial intelligence-powered hacks are proliferating. Ukraine’s defenses represent a model for the West.” Ieva Ilves and Michael Rogers https://cepa.org/article/ukraine-combats-ai-cyberattacks/

We’re delighted to welcome Torben Mikkelsen, former Admiral Danish Fleet, as a Distinguished Fellow with CEPA’s Transatlantic Defense and Security Program. He led multinational naval forces in removing chemical weapons from Syria and Libya.

Impactful science takes five to seven years, but many US visas and funding streams run out after two or three. Kiana Aran makes the case for a transatlantic fellowship. https://cepa.org/comprehensive-reports/forging-a-transatlantic-biotechnology-partnership-to-confront-the-china-conflict/

Solar Surprise: Dealing with a Surplus | "Renewable energy production must be matched by grid investments." Enrique Dans https://cepa.org/article/solar-surprise-dealing-with-a-surplus/

Frank Kendall served with NATO as a young Army officer in the 1970s. Decades later, the former Secretary of the Air Force still cannot name a more successful alliance. https://cepa.org/event/cepa-2026-tech-security-conference/

Russia’s Ominous Migrant Weaponization | "Recent events show the Russian-Belarusian playbook moving from migrant pressure towards coercion, presenting Europe with some tough dilemmas." Maciej Bukowski https://cepa.org/article/russias-ominous-migrant-weaponization/

Western Embassies Must Stay in Bomb-Blasted Kyiv | "Russia is determined to force Ukraine’s allies out of their diplomatic missions this winter. This has to be resisted." Margaryta Khvostova and Amelia Hadfield https://cepa.org/article/western-embassies-must-stay-in-bomb-blasted-kyiv/

A Silicon Curtain Is Descending Across the Semiconductor World | “Chipmakers traditionally shared ideas and advances with colleagues around the globe. No longer." Christopher Cytera https://cepa.org/article/a-silicon-curtain-is-descending-across-the-semiconductor-world/

Network Fees: A Misguided Idea | "Part 1: The European Union will reconsider imposing Network Fees on mostly American platforms. It's an ill-advised approach." Fiona Alexander https://cepa.org/article/network-fees-a-misguided-idea/

Building a future-capable allied force means producing critical capabilities at scale and bringing new defense technology into service faster. CEPA and Brzezinski Global Strategies took up those questions with Czech Defense Minister Jaromír Zůna.

Spheres of Influence Won’t Help the US | "Sacrificing small nations to please the world’s biggest countries is a dead end. The US in particular has much more to lose than to gain." CEPA https://cepa.org/article/spheres-of-influence-wont-help-the-us/

We’re delighted to welcome Owen Bennett as a Fellow with CEPA’s Tech Policy Program. Owen led international online safety at Ofcom, the UK’s communications regulator, and helped shape the EU’s Digital Services Act and AI Act at Mozilla.

When AI moves faster than any human can, who makes the final decision? For Gen. Luca Goretti, former Chief of Staff of the Italian Air Force, it has to remain a person. https://cepa.org/event/cepa-2026-tech-security-conference/

Ukraine’s Medical Evacuations Go Airborne | "Multiple thousands of Ukrainian troops have lost limbs while trapped on an unforgiving frontline. Drone tech is seeking to restore military medicine’s ‘golden hour’." David Kirichenko https://cepa.org/article/ukraines-medical-evacuations-go-airborne/

Quantum computing may still feel a little ways away. Amb. Julianne Smith, former US Ambassador to NATO, warns it could break through the encryption the US and its treaty allies depend on. https://cepa.org/event/cepa-2026-tech-security-conference/

Could China and Russia Rescue Cuba’s Regime? | "The US blockade of Cuba’s energy supplies has brought the island nation to the brink of collapse, but Beijing and Moscow are trying to help Havana weather the storm." Cesar E. Santos https://cepa.org/article/could-china-and-russia-rescue-cubas-regime/

Pen Pushers Help Engineers Keep Ukraine’s Lights On | "Ukraine is rapidly decentralizing its energy system, but protection from the cold and dark this winter will depend on local authorities getting facilities running in time." Kateryna Odarchenko

Russia’s shadow war is designed to exploit every gap between allies. At Forum 2000 in Prague, Christopher Walker, Dalia Grybauskaitė, and Roderich Kiesewetter examined the cost of transatlantic drift. https://cepa.org/programs/global-shadow-war-initiative/

Europe brings regulatory standards, and the US brings innovation and capital. Kiana Aran explains why measuring biology needs both. Read the full report. https://cepa.org/comprehensive-reports/forging-a-transatlantic-biotechnology-partnership-to-confront-the-china-conflict/

Every Putin-Xi summit brings fresh promises of friendship, and every one leaves Russia a little more dependent on China. Together, the two regimes form a single meta-threat to democracies. https://cepa.org/comprehensive-reports/the-china-russia-meta-threat-the-architecture-of-authoritarian-power/

NATO Must Prepare for Russian Missile Swarms | "It would be foolish to assume that Ukraine alone is at risk from Russia’s hugely increased production of unmanned aerial munitions." Fabian Hoffmann https://cepa.org/article/nato-must-prepare-for-russian-missile-swarms/

Deepening Black Sea Crisis Demands US Involvement | “Something very serious is happening in the Black Sea, and it demands a response.” Mark Montgomery and Antonia-Laura Pup https://cepa.org/article/deepening-black-sea-crisis-demands-us-involvement/

It’s the Networks, Stupid | “Britain is not developing a Ministry of Truth.” Andy Pryce https://cepa.org/article/its-the-networks-stupid/

Russian Strikes Rise Across NATO’s Eastern Flank | “Russia’s behavior is becoming more reckless.” Ester Ljunggren https://cepa.org/article/russian-strikes-rise-across-natos-eastern-flank/

Raw Material Risk Threatens Europe’s Drone Race | "China’s stranglehold on the raw materials needed for drones threatens Europe’s defenses. The solution will take time it doesn’t have." Nathan Alan-Lee https://cepa.org/article/raw-material-risk-threatens-europes-drone-race/

We’re delighted to welcome Glenn Parham as a Fellow with CEPA’s Tech Policy Program. Glenn leads public-sector work at Vals AI, building AI benchmarks for national security, and was the Pentagon’s first Generative AI Technical Lead.

With recursive self-improvement, AI models stop learning from us and begin training themselves. Representative Don Beyer (VA-08) explains why that has become the big fear among Silicon Valley tech leaders.

Will Serbia's Vote End the Vučić Era? | "Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić's decision to quit and run for prime minister is a snap test of his popularity after 12 years in power, and of protesters' ability to marshal an effective opposition." Ekaterina Kurbangaleeva

Russian Strikes Rise Across NATO’s Eastern Flank | "The past month has seen a rising drumbeat of attacks by Russian drones and saboteurs from the Baltic states to the Black Sea." Ester Ljunggren https://cepa.org/article/russian-strikes-rise-across-natos-eastern-flank/

Changing Ukraine’s President Will Change Nothing | “Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s legitimacy is once again being queried, but opponents are asking the wrong question.” Alexander Motyl

Ukraine’s Military Recruitment: Lessons for NATO | "Forged in the heat of war, Ukraine’s approach to military recruitment could offer a model for its Western allies." Olesia Horiainova https://cepa.org/article/ukraines-military-recruitment-lessons-for-nato/

Trust Is as Important to NATO as Guns | "Europe’s security debate focuses on defense capabilities, technological resilience, critical infrastructure, and the ability to act independently, but public trust in NATO is just as vital." Juris Pupcenoks and Jessica Boscarino

Putin and Xi United by a Love of Corruption | "Failure to address corruption has weakened democracies and enabled organized crime, but Russia and China use graft an instrument of state control." Walter Clemens https://cepa.org/article/putin-and-xi-united-by-a-love-of-corruption/

Readying the Nordics for War – Let’s Not Waste Time | "The Nordic countries should plough ahead with joint preparations for war with Russia. It makes no sense to wait for allies, and there are immediate steps available." Jan Kallberg

The State That Cannot Say Plague | "The Russian state always lies in a crisis, and Putin’s regime has shut down the truth-tellers. This inflicts enormous costs on Russians and maybe the rest of us." Alexander Kolyandr https://cepa.org/article/the-state-that-cannot-say-plague/

“It's so important to preserve the story, the truth, and to give people a voice. And I'm very grateful to CEPA personally, to Dr. Alina Polyakova, for giving me this voice, for preserving my voice.” At CEPA Honors, CEPA fellow Elina Beketova spoke on the importance of the truth.

How Russia’s War Against Ukraine is Spreading to North Africa | "The Mediterranean is fast becoming another front in Russia's war in Ukraine, with Kyiv reported to have struck Russian shipping and Moscow accelerating its arms buildup in North Africa." Chris Stephen

The Anxiety Machine | "It’s predictable that an anxious culture will predict doom." James Lewis https://cepa.org/article/the-anxiety-machine/

Europe Can Rearm Even as Steel Industry Shrinks | "Falling steel output need not derail rearmament, but hard-to-replace specialist suppliers are in a different category." Maciej Bukowski https://cepa.org/article/europe-can-rearm-even-as-steel-industry-shrinks/

Ukraine Has Problems With Both Koreas | "South Korea’s recent behavior seems mystifying given its vulnerability to attack from the north." Olga Lautman https://cepa.org/article/ukraine-has-problems-with-both-koreas/

Washington Could Defuse Europe’s “Kill Switch” Fears | "The brief shutoff of cutting-edge US artificial intelligence models feed Europe’s appetite for AI sovereignty." Nick Reiners https://cepa.org/article/washington-could-defuse-europes-kill-switch-fears/

“We have to defend our values, our open societies, our structures. We have to be resilient, and we have to be very candid with our citizens.” Following the 2026 CEPA Honors, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer shared her perspective on the most pressing challenges facing the world.

CEPA is delighted to welcome Hannah Thoburn as a Senior Fellow. Hannah brings 20 years of expertise on Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, including as a senior staffer on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and we look forward to her contributions to transatlantic security.

“The thing that bothers me the most right now is how little we're able to talk with each other.” CEPA Senior Fellow Mitzi Perdue shared her thoughts on the most pressing challenges the world is facing, following the 2026 CEPA Honors.

“If I were in power right now, I would be first very candid with my own citizens, because they have to know and they have to face the reality as it is.” Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer gives advice to rising leaders of the world following the 2026 CEPA Honors.

South Korea secretly shipped Russia fuel, including diesel, and then picked a diplomatic fight with Ukraine. Meanwhile, Moscow is training North Koreans in drone manufacturing and helping them gain battlefield experience that threatens South Korea and the region. My latest for @cepa.org