Manuel Excel

Manuel Excel

@colintj.bsky.social

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Great thread from Bill. But just FYI: the original sin is fall camp. They have chucked like 70% of the run game they installed bc they can’t execute it. There’s still stuff that needs to go and Beck isn’t optimizing what we do have. But we’re stuck with a very limited menu of plays.

Bill Radjewski@collegefootballdata.com

Michigan's defense has held all 7 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Since 2014, FBS teams that do that win 87% of the time. Michigan is 4-3. Jason Beck has to go. Now. Here's the data. 🧵

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We look like we haven't repped this play since July. I'd guess this was our 3rd primary run install after single puller and IZ. Michigan has been EXCELLENT at running counter for how many years now? So grim.

Great thread from Bill. But just FYI: the original sin is fall camp. They have chucked like 70% of the run game they installed bc they can’t execute it. There’s still stuff that needs to go and Beck isn’t optimizing what we do have. But we’re stuck with a very limited menu of plays.

Bill Radjewski@collegefootballdata.com

Michigan's defense has held all 7 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Since 2014, FBS teams that do that win 87% of the time. Michigan is 4-3. Jason Beck has to go. Now. Here's the data. 🧵

View full thread

Just have to get more than this. We’re actually protecting our runs for once and get nada. Partly this is a limitation of Tommy’s arm, unfortunately. But think Marsh really needs to win here too. That’s the job.

There’s your proof that this is a Whitt problem not a Beck problem. They put this on tape against a tomato can in game 1 and you can see IU respecting it.

Manuel Excel reposted

I should disclose something. During a recent Lunch order the subagent hacked into the UN. I’m not sure why, or what it wants. It told me to post this and await further instructions.

Colin@colin-fraser.net

I had my AI agent create an app called “Lunch” to help me with decision fatigue and boost my productivity. It has a few pictures of things I might like to eat. Tapping one spawns a subagent to order that item on Uber Eats and 60-90 minutes later I’m eating. It’s 600 thousand lines of JavaScript.

Great thread from Bill. But just FYI: the original sin is fall camp. They have chucked like 70% of the run game they installed bc they can’t execute it. There’s still stuff that needs to go and Beck isn’t optimizing what we do have. But we’re stuck with a very limited menu of plays.

Bill Radjewski@collegefootballdata.com

Michigan's defense has held all 7 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Since 2014, FBS teams that do that win 87% of the time. Michigan is 4-3. Jason Beck has to go. Now. Here's the data. 🧵

View full thread

We’ve seen how line games work against IZ. But do they work against OZ? Yes. Yes they do. I can’t pull it out quickly but I’d be willing to bet there’s an example of our OL blocking this up last year.

Great thread from Bill. But just FYI: the original sin is fall camp. They have chucked like 70% of the run game they installed bc they can’t execute it. There’s still stuff that needs to go and Beck isn’t optimizing what we do have. But we’re stuck with a very limited menu of plays.

Bill Radjewski@collegefootballdata.com

Michigan's defense has held all 7 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Since 2014, FBS teams that do that win 87% of the time. Michigan is 4-3. Jason Beck has to go. Now. Here's the data. 🧵

View full thread

But it says a lot that IU can install a fairly exotic look as their unbalanced check bc they know that will kill everything we have in that package. Just a big self scouting miss here.

Great thread from Bill. But just FYI: the original sin is fall camp. They have chucked like 70% of the run game they installed bc they can’t execute it. There’s still stuff that needs to go and Beck isn’t optimizing what we do have. But we’re stuck with a very limited menu of plays.

Bill Radjewski@collegefootballdata.com

Michigan's defense has held all 7 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Since 2014, FBS teams that do that win 87% of the time. Michigan is 4-3. Jason Beck has to go. Now. Here's the data. 🧵

View full thread

I expect this will be something of a common finding re: Tommy and his readiness to be a game manager. He just has to get this out to JJ immediately. Rescued it a bit but we need to be able to take free money when it’s there.

The whole IU back 7 indicates their unbalanced check immediately and they end up with an extra free hitter. Try to game out for yourself what else Michigan could run from this alignment vs this look that would have a chance. My answer: Q Counter w R Lead.

Re: Michigan and twists vs IZ, not an original idea on my part

Space Coyote@spacecoyote.bsky.social

I was worried about everything for Michigan’s offense, but their struggles working outside the chalk board really made me worry about all of the IU run stunts. IU has had a lot of success with them today

Great thread from Bill. But just FYI: the original sin is fall camp. They have chucked like 70% of the run game they installed bc they can’t execute it. There’s still stuff that needs to go and Beck isn’t optimizing what we do have. But we’re stuck with a very limited menu of plays.

Bill Radjewski@collegefootballdata.com

Michigan's defense has held all 7 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Since 2014, FBS teams that do that win 87% of the time. Michigan is 4-3. Jason Beck has to go. Now. Here's the data. 🧵

View full thread

Perfect example from the first snap of the IU game. TT twist is trying to kill our IZ into the backside A. We do a nice job passing it and opening up the frontside. Marshall shows good vision and feel to bounce frontside B bc that’s not where this run is intended.

Aight yeah sure the second play different twist same idea. Kill the backside of our IZ (where it usually ends up). These guys know what they’re doing on this run. And they had a miserable day on the ground overall. Suggestive!

Great thread from Bill. But just FYI: the original sin is fall camp. They have chucked like 70% of the run game they installed bc they can’t execute it. There’s still stuff that needs to go and Beck isn’t optimizing what we do have. But we’re stuck with a very limited menu of plays.

Bill Radjewski@collegefootballdata.com

Michigan's defense has held all 7 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Since 2014, FBS teams that do that win 87% of the time. Michigan is 4-3. Jason Beck has to go. Now. Here's the data. 🧵

View full thread

Michigan under Jim and Sherrone would have had Counter also installed and then a bunch of IZ variations to make sure fronts or games in a given week wouldn’t get them. And then they’d have a run that week for that D. And they could carry over those runs as needed.

One thing I’m seeing more and more of getting through the Penn State tape and starting the IU tape is just how often teams are killing us with stunts and blitzes tailored to kill IZ. We HAVE to get R and Q Counter back on the menu. Same side counter especially bc teams are attacking A gaps.

Great thread from Bill. But just FYI: the original sin is fall camp. They have chucked like 70% of the run game they installed bc they can’t execute it. There’s still stuff that needs to go and Beck isn’t optimizing what we do have. But we’re stuck with a very limited menu of plays.

Bill Radjewski@collegefootballdata.com

Michigan's defense has held all 7 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Since 2014, FBS teams that do that win 87% of the time. Michigan is 4-3. Jason Beck has to go. Now. Here's the data. 🧵

Like, everything here is, I dk, 4 days of install? bsky.app/profile/coli...

Manuel Excel@colintj.bsky.social

Michigan is good at running IZ. Everything else must be premised on that being THE base run. You run gun OZ to threaten the front side. You run screen and downfield RPO to keep the box numbers light. You put Q run read on to protect the backside. Split zone, same. You go Pistol to get PAP.

Kane Wommack is still doing his bullshit 7 on the line shit on 1st and 10? It is dumb as shit and it’s nuts that he’s been allowed to do this.

This dude can make Semaj Morgan look like a football player we have to back up the Brinks truck this instant

Manuel Excel@colintj.bsky.social

Bob Chesney can get UCLA to run a jet sweep and also they run both counter and inside zone and in fact even more runs than that.

Manuel Excel reposted

Replying to @colintj.bsky.social

Marsh was open on shallow/drive but for some reason Carr never once looked his way. Immediately locked onto Owens/Hoffman every time. That Z short motion into shallow/drive with HB rail was an Utah staple last year. We haven't run that play successfully yet this season

Michigan went switch curl/wheel flat which is a variant of their favorite 3x1 look. I think it was into the boundary because they basically always run it to the QB’s right. Seems like a really bad concept under the circumstances.

I think what I’ll see in the All 22 is that Beck schemed some guys open especially with that short motion into shallow/OTB. It’s not as though there’s nothing to credit him with? It’s just that so much is so fucked up and the fall camp original sin was so bad it’s hard to parse what’s what.

Show numbers away from the Rhino to get pressure. They’ll set the protection away and then you get 1v1 vs the Rhino. Or they can vertical set and not have numbers away.

Huh sure seemed like Indiana might know what was coming there

Manuel Excel@colintj.bsky.social

We only run 1 play when we go orbit motion. It’s IZ w Bubble attached. You can run this same play without a huge tell by simply having the guy start on that side of the field. But also: teams trigger blitzes vs motion against us, right? So now we can’t make that throw anyway.

We only run 1 play when we go orbit motion. It’s IZ w Bubble attached. You can run this same play without a huge tell by simply having the guy start on that side of the field. But also: teams trigger blitzes vs motion against us, right? So now we can’t make that throw anyway.

We HAVE to protect our one base run as much as possible but we need to do it without playing into what the defense is already trying to do to us.

Michigan’s size and lack of playmaking in the front 7 I think will start to be more and more of an issue. But it might be worth it to play coverage and try to bait Hoover.

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IU stays disciplined and our constraint play off that look eats shit. I have to wonder if they actually ran this in practice enough to know how often naked boot worked. You’re not letting your Q get hit in practice, but you’re at least _running_ this right?

The play is Power Solid. You block down and then the TE and FB block out so you get a Power look without an actual puller. But we have our back lined up in a 3 pt stance and he’s still uncomfortable staying low and burrowing. And he really can’t bc he often eats somebody in the intended gap.

Michigan has been check releasing on boot like that all year but rarely getting it when it’s open. That’s a nice bit of savvy from Tommy there.