Bill Radjewski

Seven games of Beck's offense, one chart each. The defense held all 7 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Michigan was favored in the second half of all three losses. Iowa was bad luck. Minnesota and Indiana were on the offense: 7 and 6 points. Game by game 🧵

Which game broke you? Iowa, Minnesota, or Indiana? 👇

Seven games of Beck's offense, one chart each. The defense held all 7 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Michigan was favored in the second half of all three losses. Iowa was bad luck. Minnesota and Indiana were on the offense: 7 and 6 points. Game by game 🧵

Week 8, Indiana (L 6-13, OT). Twice inside the 5. Twice sacked. Down 6: 3rd-and-goal at the 1, naked boot, sacked for -13. Missed FG. Down 3, 1st-and-10 at the 10, 62% to win: run, run, sack, FG. Other P4 offenses average 18.5 on Indiana.

Seven games of Beck's offense, one chart each. The defense held all 7 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Michigan was favored in the second half of all three losses. Iowa was bad luck. Minnesota and Indiana were on the offense: 7 and 6 points. Game by game 🧵

Week 5, @ Minnesota (L 14-20). The offense scored 7. The other 7 was a pick-six. Up 14-7 at the half, 75% to win in the 3rd. Second half: 0 points, 2 INTs. Other P4 offenses average 28.2 on Minnesota.

Seven games of Beck's offense, one chart each. The defense held all 7 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Michigan was favored in the second half of all three losses. Iowa was bad luck. Minnesota and Indiana were on the offense: 7 and 6 points. Game by game 🧵

Week 3, UTEP (W 52-17). Two first-half fumbles, down 14-7. Then 38 straight points. Fair is fair. Context too: other FBS offenses average 39.8 on UTEP.

Seven games of Beck's offense, one chart each. The defense held all 7 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Michigan was favored in the second half of all three losses. Iowa was bad luck. Minnesota and Indiana were on the offense: 7 and 6 points. Game by game 🧵

Week 1, WMU (W 13-12). At home, against a MAC team. Michigan had 7 points until the final play. Down 5 with 0:19 left: 3% to win. A 47-yard TD to Buchanan saved it. Other FBS teams score 22.7 a game on WMU.

I graded Michigan's offense against all 138 FBS teams on 18 metrics. 🚩 7 red flags 📉 Worse than 2025 on 17 of 18 65% of last year's carries came back. The play-caller is new. 🧵

Which red flag bugs you most? 👇 Mine: points per trip inside the 40. #125 in FBS. Michigan gets close and doesn't finish.

I graded Michigan's offense against all 138 FBS teams on 18 metrics. 🚩 7 red flags 📉 Worse than 2025 on 17 of 18 65% of last year's carries came back. The play-caller is new. 🧵

The rows that aren't red matter too. The line holds up front (#69). Passing downs work (#24). What breaks is the early-down plan and the space past the line. That's the part a scheme is supposed to create.

I graded Michigan's offense against all 138 FBS teams on 18 metrics. 🚩 7 red flags 📉 Worse than 2025 on 17 of 18 65% of last year's carries came back. The play-caller is new. 🧵

No big plays. No points. 20+ yard plays: #29 → #135 🚩 Points per trip inside the 40: #75 → #125 🚩 Short yardage: #117 🚩 That last one was #110 last year too. Still not fixed.

I graded Michigan's offense against all 138 FBS teams on 18 metrics. 🚩 7 red flags 📉 Worse than 2025 on 17 of 18 65% of last year's carries came back. The play-caller is new. 🧵

The early downs broke: standard-down success went #15 → #113. Third downs too: #24 → #93. But passing downs got better: #74 → #24. Fine when they have to throw. Broken when the play-caller has the whole menu.

I graded Michigan's offense against all 138 FBS teams on 18 metrics. 🚩 7 red flags 📉 Worse than 2025 on 17 of 18 65% of last year's carries came back. The play-caller is new. 🧵

📊 Who's winning in the trenches, and who's breaking off big runs? Opponent-adjusted rushing metrics through Week 8! Louisville is in a league of its own in highlight yards. UCLA combines strong line play with explosive runs. Which ground game stands out to you? 👀

Michigan's defense has held all 7 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Since 2014, FBS teams that do that win 87% of the time. Michigan is 4-3. Jason Beck has to go. Now. Here's the data. 🧵

What's the Beck call that broke you? For me personally, there's way too many to list out. The goal line calls against Indiana were some of the most egregious I've ever seen in 30+ years of closely following Michigan football. Drop yours below 👇

Michigan's defense has held all 7 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Since 2014, FBS teams that do that win 87% of the time. Michigan is 4-3. Jason Beck has to go. Now. Here's the data. 🧵

The real cost: against the same defenses, other P4 offenses averaged 9 more points per game than Michigan. A merely average P4 offense with this defense is likely 6-1 or 7-0. Not 4-3. Even CORE's conservative math says 1.4 wins already lost.

Michigan's defense has held all 7 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Since 2014, FBS teams that do that win 87% of the time. Michigan is 4-3. Jason Beck has to go. Now. Here's the data. 🧵

A broken offense got a bye week to fix itself. It came back with more of the same: Run rate: 57% → 57% Rhino share: 49% → 46% Standard-down run rate: 64% → 72% Success rate fell from 42% to 35%.

Michigan's defense has held all 7 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Since 2014, FBS teams that do that win 87% of the time. Michigan is 4-3. Jason Beck has to go. Now. Here's the data. 🧵

Michigan gets close. It just doesn't finish: 2.79 points per trip inside the 40, #65 of 68 P4 teams. Down 6-0 to Indiana: 3rd-and-goal at the 1. Naked bootleg. 13-yard sack. Missed 32-yard FG. Zero points.

Michigan's defense has held all 7 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Since 2014, FBS teams that do that win 87% of the time. Michigan is 4-3. Jason Beck has to go. Now. Here's the data. 🧵

Look closer: both had QB Devon Dampier. This year at Utah, without Beck, he's at 0.35 EPA per play. With Beck last year: 0.32. Beck rode Dampier. Then he asked Underwood to be Dampier: 4.5 → 8.5 runs a start, at 0.06 EPA per run. Now Underwood's on the bench.

Michigan's defense has held all 7 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Since 2014, FBS teams that do that win 87% of the time. Michigan is 4-3. Jason Beck has to go. Now. Here's the data. 🧵

The big plays are gone. Plays of 20+ yards: #29 in FBS last year, #135 of 138 now. A Freshman All-American WR went from 12.3 to 6.2 yards per target. A 5★ RB is at 3.7 YPC. The exception? JJ Buchanan, Beck's own WR from Utah.

Michigan's defense has held all 7 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Since 2014, FBS teams that do that win 87% of the time. Michigan is 4-3. Jason Beck has to go. Now. Here's the data. 🧵

First, what changed. It's not simply "same players, new coach." Gone: RB Justice Haynes, TE Marlin Klein, WR Donaven McCulley, C Greg Crippen, G Giovanni El-Hadi. Added: RB Savion Hiter, WR JJ Buchanan, QB Tommy Carr.

Michigan's defense has held all 7 opponents to 20 points or fewer. Since 2014, FBS teams that do that win 87% of the time. Michigan is 4-3. Jason Beck has to go. Now. Here's the data. 🧵

The short version: • Michigan's worst run game since 2013 • Plays of 20+ yards: #135 of 138 in FBS • Beck's last two offenses were #1 in rushing both years. This one: #81 • Other P4 offenses score 9 more points a game vs. the same defenses

CORE offense vs. defense through Week 8 games. ➡️ Right = better offense ⬆️ Up = better defense 🎯 Top right = strong on both sides Where does your team land?

CFBD Model Pick'em Week 7 Update Congrats to @vlake-astro.bsky.social for taking the top spot this week! Here were the rest of the overall leaders on the week.

We had four different subcategory winners this week: @max1me, reddit user u/ZenithAnalytics, @vlake-astro.bsky.social, and @air_raid_lytics. Congrats to all weekly leaders!

📊 Opponent-adjusted offensive success rates through Week 7 Houston, LSU, and USC are among the teams thriving in both passing and standard down situations. Who’s staying on schedule, and who’s digging out of holes? Where does your team land? 👀