Daily Chartbook

We look at hundreds of charts a day. After the bell, we curate the best ones and send them to investors. No long-winded paragraphs. No filler. Just the charts and insights that matter. Subscribe: www.dailychartbook.com

Healthcare’s 100-day return of +21.5% is now 2.5 standard deviations above its 10Y mean, making it by far the most stretched sector over this period. Meanwhile, Tech (-1.2 SD) and Communications (-1.0 SD) sit at the opposite end of the spectrum.

"It's the price of refined products like diesel that are likely to hit businesses and households most as Americans prepare to vote in the midterm elections next week." -Reuters

"Oil prices tell only part of the story of how the energy shock has evolved." -BlackRock

"Of late, the 10-year yield and the market forecast for fed funds a year hence, have moved in alignment" -John Authers, BBG

"Bonds have started to act as a hedge against tech again, with the correlation between the Nasdaq 100 and 10-year Treasury yields standing out." -BBG

"Option-adjusted spreads on the iBoxx USD Technology and Telecommunications indices have widened sharply this month." -S&P Global

Anthropic now generates $2.08 for every $1 spent on compute, a 5.2x increase since Q1'25.

"The earnings rollover everyone keeps projecting may once again get pushed further out." -Duality Research

"So far, the small-caps, mid-caps, transports, semiconductors, as well as many sectors have tested their 200 DMAs. We suspect SPX is next which would bring it towards 7300 at a minimum." Jonathan Krinsky, BTIG via Neil Sethi

"We estimate ~27% of the index is currently in open window, with that number almost doubling to ~50% by the end of the week." -Robbie Stankard, Goldman Sachs

"Demand for tail risk protection, as measured by SPX downside convexity (10D vs. 25D ratio), remained in the 99th percentile high, though off the extremes from a week ago." -Mandy Xu, Cboe

5 of Monday's best charts and insights:

"Washington doesn’t have a revenue problem. It has a spending problem." -Charlie Bilello, Creative Planning

"The equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) has been making higher lows since late September, while the S&P 500 Top 20 ETF (TOPT) has been rolling over. And SPY? Well, it's stuck in the middle, chopping sideways and frustrating just about everyone." -Larry Thompson, Hostile Charts

"EM MSCI now accounts for 20.2% of the All Country World MSCI’s forward earnings. That’s more than Europe’s 15.0%. It’s the first time that EM has overtaken Europe since the data began in 1995." -Yardeni

"Stocks have gotten significantly cheaper this year." -Yardeni

gm. 38% of S&P 500 weight reports this week. via Scott Rubner, Citadel

gm. 12% of S&P 500 weight reports this week. via Scott Rubner, Citadel

5 of Friday's best charts and insights:

CEO Confidence survey: "Cybersecurity threats were by far CEOs’ top AI-related concern"

"The AI buildout ... is concentrated in the most cash-generative firms in the economy, and business saving has thus far held up through the capex surge rather than eroding against it." -Liberty Street Economics

Looking ahead to Q4, analysts anticipate the Other 493 will outpace the Mag 7 in earnings growth for the first time since Q4'22. via FactSet

"The number of stocks meeting all four of my bullish trend conditions has moved back above the number meeting none. The bulls have regained the lead. Just barely." -Grant Hawkridge, The Daily Number

Traders have bought the recent dip in semis aggressively. Bottom panel shows rolling weekly flows into Direxion’s triple-levered semis ETF through Thursday.

"Rates for bonds linked to the tech sector have meaningfully diverged from the broader universe of corporate issuance, beginning roughly in September of '25, when capex borrowing began to take off." -Moses Sternstein, a16z

"CEO confidence declined in 4Q26, falling 6 points to 46 to its lowest level since 2Q25 ... the drop in optimism likely reflects rising geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices" -Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab

"Social Security’s 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment for 2027 is the largest in four years" -Larry Adam, Raymond James

"The world is becoming more asset-heavy." -Coatue

"The smartphone market suffered its worst decline on record in the September quarter, after rising memory costs pushed shipments down 22% with worse to come" -Vlad Savov, BBG

“Upward pressure on rates persists until either the Fed raises rates above expected AI returns, or expected AI returns fall below the Fed funds rate. With the consensus still very bullish on AI … investors should expect continued upward pressure on rates.” -Torsten Slok, Apollo

"The top 10 stocks have made up somewhere in the range of 20-25% of the index since 1980. Now it’s 40%. That’s a massive jump in the 2020s." -Ben Carlson, Ritholtz

The Russell 2000 is on track to close lower for the 6th consecutive week for just the 7th time since 1987. Study dashboard: studies.dailychartbo...

"How long do rotations out of Tech last? DB says since mid-2024 the average is 67 days and the median 59 days, and on average the mega-cap growth and tech cohort sees a -16.6% drawdown (median -14.6%)" Deutsche Bank via Neil Sethi

"Maybe, unlike in 2000, any contemporary New Era stock price collapse won't be nearly as bad for the overall stock market because the price-beta of Old Era stocks is currently ZERO!" -Jim Paulsen, Paulsen Perspectives

On Wednesday, hedge funds sold global AI stocks at the second-fastest pace of the past year, behind only the Situational Awareness blow-up in July. Long sales outpaced short sales 3.5 to 1. Goldman Sachs via Zero Hedge

"MCG & Tech positioning has started to cool, but the trade remains crowded compared with the rest of the market" Deutsche Bank via Isabelnet

"October rate hike expectations fade. After reaching as high as 53% yesterday following CPI, the probability of a hike has dropped below 30% amid a strong rally in Treasuries and dovish Fed pushback." -CME Group

5 of Thursday's best charts and insights:

Semiconductors have fallen for 6 straight sessions through Wednesday. Down streaks that ended at 6 days averaged +9.4% over the next month. Streaks that continued averaged -1.4% over the same period. Study dashboard: studies.dailychartbo...

"Consensus is looking for ~27% YoY S&P 500 EPS growth in Q3, the third-highest expectation heading into a reporting season since 2010, behind only the two pandemic-recovery quarters." -Scott Rubner, Citadel

"A new survey by Mavvrik and Benchmarkit of 396 enterprises finds that companies are adopting AI faster than they are building the financial controls to keep its costs in check." -Torsten Slok, Apollo

"Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle are set to invest almost $800bn in capital expenditure this year, mostly for ever more powerful data centres, and over $1 trillion a year through 2030 and beyond." -Adrian Cox, Deutsche Bank

"Our diffusion indexes show that the percentages of S&P 500 companies with positive 3-month and 12-month increases in forward revenues and forward earnings have risen significantly during the bull market." -Yardeni

"The semis are now in their 4th 10%+ correction since early June. That's the most corrections inside a window that small since late 2002." -Bespoke

The S&P 500's streak of consecutive days without a decline of at least 1% ends at 53. It was the longest since 2020. Full dashboard here: studies.dailychartbo...

"We are currently in peak earnings blackout, with just 24% of S&P 500 index weight outside repurchase blackout windows. That figure rises to ~55% by month-end, ~75% by November 3 (Midterm Election Day), and ~85% by November 9" -Scott Rubner, Citadel

"This is the diffusion of CPI inflation, measured similarly to Kevin Warsh's preferred PCE inflation diffusion metric. It's down." -Anna Wong, BBG

5 of Wednesday's best charts and insights:

"The U.S. is projected to reach its $41.1 trillion debt limit before the end of 2027. Notably, that ceiling was raised by $5 trillion just one year ago, underscoring how quickly the nation's debt burden has grown." -JPMorgan AM

"Median household net worth ticked up 2% (on an inflation-adjusted basis) between 2022 and 2025 ... However, wealth gains were uneven: net worth for households in the top 10% of incomes rose 31%, whereas the bottom 40% saw declines in their net worth" -Larry Adam, Raymond James