Daniel Hegedus

Daniel Hegedus

@danielhegedus.bsky.social

International Relations, European Union & Democracy. Thinker & Doer. Deputy Director at @iep-berlin.de. Obama Leader. Views are personal. Metal & Bluegrass fan. Substack: https://ballhausplatz.substack.com/

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Have you been puzzled, while reading the Commission’s Policy Review, about what can be done before April 2027 to safeguard the EU’s capacity to act and prepare it for challenges that may test its integrity well before the next enlargement takes place? THREAD 1/5

2/3 Ich argumentiere, dass die wahrgenommene Volatilität der ungarischen Außenpolitik durch die historisch bedingte schwache strategische Kultur ungarischer Eliten und den damit verbundenen, oft schwachen gesellschaftlichen und Elitenkonsens in außenpolitischen Fragen zu erklären ist.

bpb.de"Norm Taker" oder "Disruptor"? | bpb.deUngarns Außenpolitik ist von Richtungswechseln und geringer Kontinuität geprägt. Historische Brüche und das Interesse an Regimestabilität erklären den wiederholten Wechsel der Leitprinzipien.

Daniel Hegedus reposted

Have you been puzzled, while reading the Commission’s Policy Review, about what can be done before April 2027 to safeguard the EU’s capacity to act and prepare it for challenges that may test its integrity well before the next enlargement takes place? THREAD 1/5

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4. Its mere availability could significantly reduce the leverage of Member States threatening to use their vetoes, thereby discouraging obstruction and strengthening incentives for compromise.

Have you been puzzled, while reading the Commission’s Policy Review, about what can be done before April 2027 to safeguard the EU’s capacity to act and prepare it for challenges that may test its integrity well before the next enlargement takes place? THREAD 1/5

2. In my new paper, I argue that authorising enhanced cooperation in CFSP by qualified majority could provide a strategic safeguard against disruptive vetoes while potentially enjoying broader political support than a general extension of QMV in CFSP. iep-berlin.de/en/projects/...

iep-berlin.deA Safety Belt for the EU’s Capacity to Act | IEPHow can the EU safeguard its foreign policy capacity to act despite national vetoes? In his new IEP Policy Paper, Daniel Hegedüs explores how qualified majority voting could enable enhanced cooperatio...

3. This limited reform could be introduced through the application of the CFSP passerelle clause (Article 31(3) TEU), or the general passerelle clause as a fallback, within the available political window.

Welcome to the IEP family, John! Thank you for joining us!

John Morijn@jmorijn.bsky.social

Happy to announce that, yesterday, I joined the @iep-berlin.de Academic Advisory Board. My IEP debut was participation in the Book Slam, a fun format in which you explain a recent publication in 5 sentences and then get 2 unusual questions. @danielhegedus.bsky.social @fundatekin.bsky.social

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3/4 I remain firmly convinced that Europe and North America are stronger together—and that an enduring partnership must rest on shared democratic values, mutual respect, active solidarity, and coordinated action in defence of the rules-based international order.

2/4 After eight years of transatlantic work, this milestone gives me renewed motivation and courage to connect democratic forces facing similar challenges on both sides of the Atlantic—and to facilitate mutual learning and cooperation.

🇮🇸🇪🇺🇮🇸🇪🇺 More than a year ago, I wrote a short piece for @euobserver.com on why Nordic enlargement would make an essential contribution to Europe’s security and geopolitical weight. A small reading recommendation for the 🇮🇸 referendum weekend👇 euobserver.com/23047/why-it... @iep-berlin.de

euobserver.comWhy it’s time for Norway and Iceland to join EUIceland and Norway are deeply integrated into the EU’s internal market through the European Economic Area and the Schengen zone, yet formally outside the Union. Both have a history of EU candidacy. Bo...
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6. It could also be a game changer for Greenland’s relationship with the EU and for U.S. aspirations towards 🇬🇱. Last but not least, it could create a geopolitical bridge for closer security and political cooperation between the EU and Canada.

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5. Furthermore, Iceland’s accession could consolidate the EU’s geopolitical position in the Arctic and secure Europe a seat at the table of Arctic security alongside the United States, China, and Russia.

2. While Iceland is considered a relatively small country—which is true only in terms of its population, but certainly not its territory—and the referendum is not receiving the attention it deserves, the geopolitical consequences of this decision could be far-reaching for the EU.

3. A restart of the negotiations could convince sceptical capitals, including Paris and The Hague, that EU enlargement is not only about bringing net beneficiaries on board that rely on EU financial transfers, or about the continued shift of the EU’s geopolitical centre of gravity to the East.

🇨🇳🇹🇯 On Monday, I had the opportunity to discuss with @tvpworld.bsky.social's excellent Ashim Kumar the latest amendment to Hungary's Fundamental Law, the removal of President Sulyok, and former Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter #Szijjártó's appointment to #BYD's global management team. THREAD 1/8

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7. In the same spirit, Szijjártó's hiring was not a corporate decision driven by business logic. It was a political message to the European political class that those who work hard to advance 🇨🇳 interests will not be left alone after leaving office, but rewarded with lucrative corporate positions.

8. This is Chinese checkbook diplomacy directed at Europe's political class—at least as much an investment in future fellow travellers as in Péter Szijjártó himself, a man who appears to have little political future in Hungary.

🇨🇳🇹🇯 On Monday, I had the opportunity to discuss with @tvpworld.bsky.social's excellent Ashim Kumar the latest amendment to Hungary's Fundamental Law, the removal of President Sulyok, and former Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter #Szijjártó's appointment to #BYD's global management team. THREAD 1/8

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5. In the years that followed, he repeatedly blocked EU statements condemning China's human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong. The flood of Chinese FDI into Hungary over the past years was the result of a geopolitical—not a business—decision made in Beijing.

6. Through it, the PRC demonstrated that, after the de facto collapse of the former 16+1 cooperation framework, it was prepared to generously reward its friends in the CEE region, among them the closest one, Hungary, which neither turned away from nor downgraded its relationship with China.

🇨🇳🇹🇯 On Monday, I had the opportunity to discuss with @tvpworld.bsky.social's excellent Ashim Kumar the latest amendment to Hungary's Fundamental Law, the removal of President Sulyok, and former Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter #Szijjártó's appointment to #BYD's global management team. THREAD 1/8

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3. Szijjártó did not merely facilitate the unprecedented inflow of Chinese FDI into Hungary in recent years. Since the beginning of his tenure as foreign minister he consistently championed Chinese interests in the broadest sense.

4. In 2016, he was the only EU foreign minister to openly echo Beijing's position following the South China Sea arbitration ruling and became the main reason why the EU was unable to adopt a joint position in response to the arbitration ruling.

🇨🇳🇹🇯 On Monday, I had the opportunity to discuss with @tvpworld.bsky.social's excellent Ashim Kumar the latest amendment to Hungary's Fundamental Law, the removal of President Sulyok, and former Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter #Szijjártó's appointment to #BYD's global management team. THREAD 1/8

2. The paper argues that Hungary's new Tisza government, while demonstrating a high degree of continuity with the previous Fidesz government's Ukraine policy, nevertheless offers a genuine opportunity to de-securitize this important neighbourhood relations.

Daniel Hegedus reposted

🇭🇺🇵🇱⚖️ @danielhegedus.bsky.social is right for FT here - the almost complete lack of constraints (maybe except for the 🇪🇺) on Magyar will require the exercise of huge self-restraint - as opposed to Tusk in Poland, who is so constrained that he needs all the wiggle room he can find.

Daniel Hegedus reposted

Europe may be heading into its toughest #MFF negotiations yet. With joint borrowing politically unrealistic, extending the #RRF beyond 2026 and unlocking allocated but undrawn funds could provide the financial incentive needed to bridge divides and secure a deal. euobserver.com/226923/how-e...

euobserver.comHow extending Covid funds could be a key bargaining chip in EU budget fightExtending the EU's recovery and resilience funds (RRF) would add flexibility to the 2028–2034 EU budget negotiations, raise the chances of agreement before year’s end, and preserve EU leverage over re...

Europe may be heading into its toughest #MFF negotiations yet. With joint borrowing politically unrealistic, extending the #RRF beyond 2026 and unlocking allocated but undrawn funds could provide the financial incentive needed to bridge divides and secure a deal. euobserver.com/226923/how-e...

euobserver.comHow extending Covid funds could be a key bargaining chip in EU budget fightExtending the EU's recovery and resilience funds (RRF) would add flexibility to the 2028–2034 EU budget negotiations, raise the chances of agreement before year’s end, and preserve EU leverage over re...

Daniel Hegedus reposted