Danny Crichton

Danny Crichton

@dannycrichton.com

Write and design Riskgaming scenarios on tech, science and politics. Partner, Research at Lux Capital.

183 followers105 following471 posts

Great dispatch: “In China, the A.I. fortune-telling industry passed a hundred and twenty billion yuan in 2025, growing nearly forty-four per cent a year, faster than most enterprise A.I. The West is experiencing a version of this, too” www.newyorker.com/news/the-le...

newyorker.comWhat China’s Vibe-Coding Capital Can Tell Us About the A.I. BoomLiangzhu, a small town near the tech hub Hangzhou, has become a haven for tech workers burnt out by the grind of China’s booming tech industry.

“…Britain dominated the industry, not least since in the Malay Peninsula and on Borneo the empire possessed most of the gutta-percha trees, which then produced the rubbery, saltwater-resistant substance needed to insulate the first generation of cables.”

“a remarkable effort by the government and the city’s distribution utilities has turned Delhi’s grid into a reliable, modern system. Power losses have shrunk from over 50 percent in 2002 to 5 to 6 percent in 2026—on par with France and Belgium, and better than Greece and Serbia.”

“Everything else—especially notions of identity and categorization that have so obsessed the West in recent centuries—is relegated to side issues, given a role to play only when they strengthen (or threaten) love, friendship, and affection between human beings.”

Part of the genre’s charms is it really does have this gauzy but relentless positivity that is just missing from Western stories. “Rather, the Anglophone arts establishment seems to have been overtaken by a paralyzing fear of sentiment without a protective wrapping of snark.”

Similarly: “Cheating and dishonesty are the great no-nos, and family and friends are usually depicted as loving and supportive. Indeed, if it weren’t for the sex of the principals…”

The only thing more inspiring than the advancing science of xenotransplantation is the indomitable spirit of the patients willing to undergo experimental treatments in pursuit of a better life for themselves and future generations. Thanks Tim: www.nytimes.com/2026/09/03/...

nytimes.comIn a First, a Pig Kidney Kept a Patient Alive Until He Got a Human OneTim Andrews was the first patient to receive a genetically modified pig kidney as a “bridge” to a human organ transplant.

15 years ago today, I moved to South Korea and lived as an expat for the first time. Seoul has gotten taller, better looking, richer, and sexier year after year. I, well … there's always Korean plastic surgery 😀

New Post: Yes, "elite hubris and its most vile form — condescension — is the ultimate trigger of populism. Yet, infantile rebellion and shouting 'no' is hardly any more useful."

I had to restrain myself due to luggage, but London book 'haul' from Daunt, Foyles, Waterstones plus Blackwell's at University of Manchester. Yes I am very behind on Jacaranda – I forgot to pick up a copy in Paris

Speaking of global nuclear war, I wrote about @AnnieJacobsen's new book "Biological War: A Scenario" and how it compares with "Nuclear War: A Scenario." In short: the two books highlight the difference between well-defined catastrophes compared to the infinite uncertainty of bio

I didn't promote last week, but Kim Jong-un is on a roll – no one has bested the U.S. better in the past decade. How did he build a nuclear weapons program against all odds, and why are top U.S. policymakers resigned to their fate? Lessons from the Hermit Kingdom ⬇️

As a rent-stabilized NYC resident VC, I am the unique voter that benefits from combo of Mamdani's socialist rent freeze plus Trump's libertarian pro-QSBS improvements plus carried interest deductions. Yes, it all needs reform, but I will take my win-win

This weekend's essay from me – sorry, it's 5K words, but if you have the attention span: Chinese economic development, SV workaholics, factory work, what Ren Zhengfei and Steve Jobs share, the most beautiful data center in the world, and comments on the challenges of journalism ⬇️

1/ This article in WotR on why South Korea shouldn't build nuclear submarines is a perfect example of why other countries should ignore the diminished ambitions of DC policymakers and just chart their own strategic course: warontherocks.com/south-korea...

warontherocks.comSouth Korea Could Build Nuclear Submarines, But It Shouldn’tIn late May 2026, South Korean Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back unveiled a roadmap to achieving one of Seoul’s top military acquisition goals:
View full thread

5/ "By focusing on whether South Korea’s defense industry can achieve this capability, policymakers risk assuming that the next rung on the technological ladder is inherently beneficial" – but that's how you stay *ahead* of the competition, by jumping up the ladder

6/ Korea (and Taiwan, and increasingly Japan) understand that China is coming for all of their industries. They need to upgrade their tech, their workforces, and their competitiveness constantly to have a chance of holding market share and profits. Status quo is death/ /end

1/ This article in WotR on why South Korea shouldn't build nuclear submarines is a perfect example of why other countries should ignore the diminished ambitions of DC policymakers and just chart their own strategic course: warontherocks.com/south-korea...

warontherocks.comSouth Korea Could Build Nuclear Submarines, But It Shouldn’tIn late May 2026, South Korean Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back unveiled a roadmap to achieving one of Seoul’s top military acquisition goals:
View full thread

3/ "This heady mix of high costs, specialized workforces, plus political and bureaucratic incentives creates a structural inertia that, once established, takes on a momentum of its own." – this is a remarkably DC-centric view that doesn't auto apply to other political economies

4/ "…the sunk cost fallacy and a government’s desire to avoid national embarrassment can take over, causing policymakers to throw good money after bad." DC decadence of spending on useless programs is much harder in competitive economies that must succeed in order to survive

1/ This article in WotR on why South Korea shouldn't build nuclear submarines is a perfect example of why other countries should ignore the diminished ambitions of DC policymakers and just chart their own strategic course: warontherocks.com/south-korea...

warontherocks.comSouth Korea Could Build Nuclear Submarines, But It Shouldn’tIn late May 2026, South Korean Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back unveiled a roadmap to achieving one of Seoul’s top military acquisition goals:

2/ "The industry’s high start-up costs and its specialized technical workforce require careful care and feeding to prevent atrophy over time." – this is precisely what Asian tigers like China, Korea, Taiwan etc. do well. That's why they own more and more manufacturing and we don't