Ensembleator

Ensembleator

@ensembleator.bsky.social

Semi-retired meteorologist, living in lovely #YVR since 1994. I often write forecasts using abbreviations due to social media character limits. Dnt wry, U wll gt it.

1.6K followers139 following2K posts

#YVR under a weakly unstable but increasing W bcmg NW flow S of a developing + deep upr low over NW BC. By Wed AM the low is over Nrn VI then just SW of srn VI Thu AM where it stalls Fri-Sat. So 🚿 plus alpine ❄️ thru Sat AM. Cool. Breezy esp Wed eve-Thu w/outflow. Hallowe'en looking dry/cool 🧹🎃🍬

I watched the movie “pressure” last night on Amazon. It depicts the creation of the D-Day weather forecast, and the two meteorologists who disagreed on methodology. Spoiler alert, but although Stagg was right for his time and up to the present moment, Kurick was right for the future.

Upr low to the S shifts into WA tdy. Vrbl clds #YVR w/a chc AM 🚿(some on radar SW VI+E Vly). Upr low dvlpg on the cold fnt to the NW tdy slides SE to just off the OR cst Tue AM. Cold upr low forms ~61N 154W tdy; tracks to near Smithers Tue eve w/SWBC undr a cold unstbl NW flow. 🚿 Tue-Thu w/alpine ❄️

Sfc/upr low SW of VI slowly moves into WA tmrw. Mainly cldy w/a few 🚿thru Mon AM + breezy #YVR. Some 🌞 PM. Cold fnt thru mid-AK this AM weakens, drops thru the LM Tue w/some cld/🚿. By then, energy from a deep low 55N 172E is redvlpg into a deep, cold upr lo ovr N BC. 🚿w/alpine ❄️Wed-Thu AM. Cool.

It seems often the case that the W coast of Canada/PNW and the W coast of Europe (esp. IE and the UK) have temporally similar weather patterns this time of year. The base conditions are similar: upstream ocean and the seasonal increase in baroclinicity. Storm Boleo (upper R) pounding IE this AM

Upr/sfc lo to the NW of #YVR wrapped up quickly. It's now lifting a wave ovr SWBC. 🚿 dvlpg this AM thru Sun as the low shifts SE and stalls/weakens off the WA cst. Breezy. Clds/dry Mon. 🚿Tue AM due an inside slider. 🌧️ Tue eve/Wed and 🚿 Thu as a deep/cold upr trof slides down the cst. Cool. ❄️Alpine

#YVR mainly clr this AM undr a weakening rdg. Upr low 53N 144W intensifies as it drops SE to S of Haida Gwaii by Sat PM, lifting a wave over the S coast in the eve then tracking slowly SE to coastal OR by Mon eve. Clds ⬆️ tdy. Light 🚿 increase to rain by eve then 🚿/breezy on Sun. AM 🚿 Mon. Chc 🚿Tue.

Light 🚿s about #YVR as a weak cold fnt movs thru the LM this AM. Trailing upr trof follows ltr tdy w/some clrg PM. Bcmg breezy beach as a sfc high blds in its wake. Ptchy AM fog then mainly 🌞Fri. Clds chc 🚿Sat as the airmass destabilizes undr a fast Jet. Windy/wet Sun w/a deep low off VI. 🚿Mon

Clr + cool this AM #YVR. An upr cold fnt brings increasing cld in a few hrs. A trailing sfc cold fnt/upr trof follows w/a chc a few lgt 🚿Thu + brisk W winds beach in the PM. Vrbl skies Fri. Rain/wind likely Sat, 🚿Sun as mdls now dvlp another warm core seclusion storm closer to the cst and stall it

A bit of low cld/fog this AM #YVR otwz mainly 🌞 tdy as an upr rdg blds into the S cst. Breezy beach. Upr trof ovr the Gulf of AK advances W, w/the LM under a SW flow Wed but still mainly 🌞. Cld/wind Thu as the trof approaches VI w/🚿 PM-Fri AM. Mdls disagree wknd but it's likely unsettled/chc light🚿

Warm core seclusion storm filling + dropping SE off the coast, w/a moist/unstble-aloft SW flow ovr #YVR. Mainly cldy w/some virga tdy. Upr rdg builds in Tue w/🌞. It weakens Wed w/some hi cld. Approaching cold fnt Thu brings wind + chc 🚿 thru Fri AM. Cooler. Clds/🚿/wind/cool wknd.

At 4 PM lcl ydy, a vry sharp, dry cold front passed thru Wainwright AB. Winds gusted to 81 km/h, after having gusted to 117 km/h at Edmonton Airport ~ 1:30 PM local. The area was dry (0.7 mm in the week prior). Pre-frontal RH 16%, T 23C. Weather likely to have played a role in the disaster @ the CFB

Patchy low cld/fog dissipating this AM in a light outflow pattern #YVR. High warm-fntl cloud moving in from a deep, dvlpg low to the W. It's fcst to drop to the SE, leaving the LM undr a weak inverted trof w/mainly cldy skies thru Mon. Upr rdg w/mainly🌞skies Tue. More cld Wed w/chc 🚿 Thu. Windy Fri

Weak cold fnt brought light 🌧️ ovnite. Vrbl skies tdy #YVR undr a moist, weakly unstbl Wly flow aloft. Sfc ridge blds in ovnite w/areas AM fog Sun then vrbl skies. Warm core seclusion storm ~44N 155W tracks E to the SW of the LM by Mon AM w/some cld but here it looks dry. Weak outflow Tue-Wed w/🌞

Some hi cld tdy #YVR but mild as a cold fnt NE-SW thru the BC central cst approaches fm the W. Rain/breezy tonite-Sat AM as the front drops thru the LM. Vrbl skies/cooler Sat PM-Sun undr a weak rdg. A dvlpg warm-core seclusion low 43N 170W drags an inverted trof ovr the LM Mon w/chc🚿. Dry Tue-Wed

Some fog and low cloud about this AM #YVR in a light outflow pattern. Sun comes out and warmer tdy w/hi teens beach and low-mid 20's inland. Mild but increasing ☁️ Fri as a cold fnt to thr W tracks twd the coast, w/rain Fri eve-Sat AM and windy. Weak upr rdg Sat PM/Sun w/vrbl skies. 🚿 likely Mon/Tue

Upr trof tracking ESE thru WA with a moist at low lvls, dry aloft, stable Nly flow in its wake. Rdg blds over the cst tdy, holds thru Fri AM. Driz/fog this AM some clrg PM. AM fog then some 🌞Thu. Clds/wind increase Fri PM, w/rain Sat as a deep upr trof runs into the cst. Partial clrg Sun. Rain Mon.

Chc🚿this AM as a weak upr trof drops thru the LM and again ovnite - Wed AM as a few weak disturbances pass ovr #YVR. More🌞 Wed PM as an upr rdg blds ovr the cst. More 🌞 + warmer Thu w/an anomalously stg rdg ovhd. Breezy/cooler Fri as a cold front to the N shifts S. Rain/wind/cool Sat. Mainly dry Sun

Back from OZ to brilliant🌞 tdy #YVR. And T about 10C lower. Brr. Increasing cld starting now as some weak impulses flatten the upr rdg ovhd. Chc🚿ovnite Tue-Wed AM then more🌞as the rdg rebounds. More 🌞 and warmer Thu w/an anomalously stg rdg ovhd. Breezy/cooler Fri as a cold front to the N shifts S