Evolving-Hockey

Evolving-Hockey

@evolving-hockey.com

Your home for advanced NHL statistics on the web | Subscribe: https://evolving-hockey.com/subscribe/ | Created by @evolvingwild.evolving-hockey.com | Social run by @shawnferris98.bsky.social

10.4K followers56 following238 posts

PSA: the site was temporarily offline tonight due to some hectic updates to deal with the recent PHP security issue patches. Everything should be fine now, but we may have some intermittent outages in the early mornings over the next few days for maintenance. Just wanted to let everyone know!

Week 3 of the '26-27 NHL season is in the books! We spent the first half discussing the goalie mindset, documentaries, football, and falling attendance numbers. Later we talked national anthems, shots from behind the net, and early GAR predictions. www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

buzzsprout.comEpisode 197: You Can Hear Everything - Evolving Hockey PodcastWeek 3 of the '26-27 NHL season is in the books! We spent the first half discussing the goalie mindset, documentaries, football, and falling attendance numbers. Later we talked about national anthems,...

It's still too early to say anything about whether your favorite team is good or bad. That said, we still tried. In the first half we discussed the Flyers, coaching media tactics, and fantasy letdowns. Later, we talked bad teams, early standouts, and the X-Files. www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

buzzsprout.comEpisode 196: Early Season Observations - Evolving Hockey PodcastIt's still way too early to say anything about whether your favorite team is good or bad. That said, we still tried (sort of). In the first half we discussed the Flyers, coaching media tactics, and fa...

Evolving-Hockey reposted

I don't think it's fair that none of our social media accounts have ever been verified on any social media platform. We're a small little hockey stats website business, but I want that blue check mark god dammit!

The first week of the '26-27 NHL season is in the books, and as is tradition it's too early to say anything conclusive. Instead, we chatted about Vince Dunn, broadcasts, concession food, David Lynch, and vibes. In the second half we talked exclusively about xG. www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

buzzsprout.comEpisode 195: Expected Goals - Evolving Hockey PodcastThe first week of the '26-27 NHL season is in the books, and as is tradition it's too early to say anything conclusive. Instead, we chatted about Vince Dunn, broadcasts, concession food, David Lynch, ...

Data for the '26-27 NHL season is now updated and live on the site! Notes: - GAR, xGAR, RAPM, and QoC/QoT data will start updating in a few weeks - Corresponding charts/visualizations for the above metrics will update when that data does - See reply for xG notes

We've hinted at this previously, but we will be transitioning to a new xG model for the '26-27 season soon. This is part of a much larger xG framework that we have, so far, been unable to completely roll out due to its scope. We'll have a lot more info about this in article form when it's live.

Our new xG model is specifically designed to account for changes in year-over-year trends. Theoretically, the model should be quite similar to the one we've always used, it's just "newer" and more finely tuned for recent changes. Again, an article is on the way, so we'll have a lot more info there!

Our team projections are now updated for the '26-27 NHL season, and the article is up on the site! We spent the entire episode discussing the model, the league environment, each division, and every team (I think). You've never heard us talk about hockey this much. www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

buzzsprout.comEpisode 194: '26-27 NHL Season Preview! - Evolving Hockey PodcastOur team projections are now updated for the '26-27 NHL season, and our season preview article is up on the site! We spent the entire episode discussing the model, the league environment, each divisio...

The season starts in six days. We're too early for our annual season preview episode, so we thought we'd wrap up the summer properly before we get to that. We discussed recent contracts, fantasy, initial contract analysis, extensions, bowling, and 1.5x listening. www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

buzzsprout.comEpisode 193: End of the Summer - Evolving Hockey PodcastThe season starts in six days. We're a little too early for our annual season preview episode, so we thought we'd wrap up the summer properly before we get to that. We discussed recent contracts, fant...

The theme of this episode is goalies. Things got really messy. I suppose that makes *a lot* of sense. Between all of that we talked about the perfect replacement level team, unexplained phenomenons, plants, fasting, and Dennis Quaid. www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

buzzsprout.comEpisode 192: GOALIES - Evolving Hockey PodcastThe theme of this episode is goalies. Things got really messy. I suppose that makes *a lot* of sense. Between all of that we talked about the perfect replacement level team, unexplained phenomenons, p...

It's time for us to start talking about hockey again (even if we spent 15 minutes talking about the MN State Fair). We spent the first half discussing our recently released fantasy projections and then moved on to Cale Makar and team construction questions. www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

buzzsprout.comEpisode 191: Cale Makar and Projections - Evolving Hockey PodcastIt's time for us to start talking about hockey again (even if we spent 15 minutes talking about the MN State Fair). We spent the first half discussing our recently released fantasy projections and the...

Alright, this is fixed! Everything should be working normally. Apologies here for the extended amount of time this took to resolve. Please let us know if you experience any issues.

Evolving-Hockey@evolving-hockey.com

PSA: we're currently working to fix an error on the checkout page of the site that is preventing new subscriptions from being created/processed. We became aware of this issue today and are hoping to have it resolved shortly. Apologies for any inconvenience this may cause.

We’re still working with our payment processor to resolve this issue. We’re hoping to have this fixed tonight. Again, we’re sorry for any inconvenience.

Evolving-Hockey@evolving-hockey.com

PSA: we're currently working to fix an error on the checkout page of the site that is preventing new subscriptions from being created/processed. We became aware of this issue today and are hoping to have it resolved shortly. Apologies for any inconvenience this may cause.

PSA: we're currently working to fix an error on the checkout page of the site that is preventing new subscriptions from being created/processed. We became aware of this issue today and are hoping to have it resolved shortly. Apologies for any inconvenience this may cause.

The Twins are back from vacation, and nothing is going on. It's all vibes. We spent the first half discussing pseudoscientific managerial assessment tools and prospect evaluation questions. Later, we pondered the Leo Carlsson offersheet and native thistles. www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

buzzsprout.comEpisode 190: Offseason Vibes - Evolving Hockey PodcastThe Twins are back from the only vacation they take every year, and nothing is going on. It's all vibes. We spent the first half discussing pseudoscientific managerial assessment tools and prospect ev...

We've been doing this for almost five years, and this episode is the most "offseason" episode we've ever recorded. We spent the first half talking about native plants (I'm not kidding), and the second half discussing ophthalmology and preseason hockey. Hell yeah. www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

buzzsprout.comEpisode 189: Evolving Wilderness - Evolving Hockey PodcastWe've been doing this for almost five years, and this episode is the most "offseason" episode we've ever recorded. We spent the first half talking about native plants (I'm not kidding), and the second...

It's been 19 days (it was supposed to be 14), but we're back in full offseason mode. We spent the entire episode covering the important things that happened in July such as: Legoland, Air Bud, Jason Bourne, depressing jigsaw puzzles (and I guess some hockey). www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

buzzsprout.comEpisode 188: July Recap - Evolving Hockey PodcastIt's been 19 days (it was only supposed to be like 14), but we're back in full offseason mode. We spent the entire episode covering all of the important things that happened in July such as: Legoland,...

It's officially the offseason, and the EH Podcast's transition was messy. We spent the first bit discussing (the twins') football ignorance while understanding football analytics. Later we analyzed all the trades and contracts your heart could desire. www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

buzzsprout.comEpisode 185: Messy Trades and World Cup - Evolving Hockey PodcastIt's officially the offseason, and the Evolving Hockey Podcast's transition was a little messy - please be patient. We spent the first bit discussing (the twins') football ignorance while understandin...

The Carolina Hurricanes are your 2026 Stanley Cup Champions! We spent the whole episode analyzing what went right for the Canes, Vegas, and the playoffs overall. Within that, we reminisced about hockey stats history and its evolution. This one was fun! www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

buzzsprout.comEpisode 183: Celebrating Hockey Analytics - Evolving Hockey PodcastThe Carolina Hurricanes are your 2026 Stanley Cup Champions! We spent the whole episode chatting about the series, analyzing what went right for the Canes, and how the playoffs shaped up overall. With...

And with that our daily updates for the 25-26 NHL season are complete! We hope you've enjoyed the ride, and now on to free agency and (for us a lot of) off-season work!

ICYMI: here’s our 2026 Stanley Cup Finals preview!

Evolving-Hockey@evolving-hockey.com

The Haters Final Begins! Let's Hate. Or I guess cheer for one of the teams. Whatever you want to do. Our preview is up! evolving-hockey.com/blog/evolvin...

It's time. The 2026 Stanley Cup Final starts today, and we spent the first 10 minutes discussing the Jurassic Park franchise and sports movies. Once the important things were necessarily covered, we talked Hockey for the rest of the episode (I promise)! www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

buzzsprout.comEpisode 183: Stanley Cup Final! - Evolving Hockey PodcastIt's time, and we're here. The 2026 Stanley Cup Final starts today, and we spent the first 10 minutes discussing the Jurassic Park franchise and sports movies. Once the important things were necessari...

Colorado may get swept (they did, but we didn't know it at the time), and Carolina's quantity-domination's resulted in shaky outcomes. We spent the whole episode analyzing everything like only we can (talking about pickup kickball and the Staals). www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

buzzsprout.comEpisode 182: Conference Finals - Evolving Hockey PodcastThe Conference Finals have started off just like everyone thought! Colorado may get swept (they did, but we didn't know it at the time), and Carolina's quantity-domination's resulted in shaky outcomes...

The Hurricanes have 50 more shot attempts than the Canadiens do, and a *good* chunk of them have been extremely close to the net. Dobeš has played incredible so far.

We had some severe scheduling issues over the last three weeks, but we're finally back! We spent the first half discussing the second round and professional bowling. Later we dug into our contract model and the upcoming offseason. It's good to be back. www.buzzsprout.com/1836821/epis...

buzzsprout.comEpisode 181: Contract Projections! - Evolving Hockey PodcastWe had some severe scheduling issues over the last three weeks, but we're finally back! We spent the first half discussing the second round and professional bowling. Later we did a deep-dive into our ...

ICYMI: our contract projections for the 2026 NHL offseason are up on the site! Check ‘em out!

Evolving-Hockey@evolving-hockey.com

## Announcement ## Contract projections for the 2026 NHL offseason are now live on the site for Pro subscribers! We also wrote a little article about the updates this year. Have fun! Projections: evolving-hockey.com/stats/contra... Updates: evolving-hockey.com/blog/contrac...

Apologies again, but we had to delay the release of our contract projections. After some double-checking, we felt it necessary to ensure our understanding of the new CBA was correct (mainly, when the new max term limits go into effect). We're hoping to have them out tomorrow morning.

PSA: We’re planning to release our contract projections for the 2026 NHL offseason either Monday or Tuesday this coming week (May 11/12th). We’re working on finalizing them right now and should have a short article on the site (and a post here) when they’re up!

View full thread

The Avs posted almost 0.5 more xG in the first period tonight than the Habs had in their entire game an hour ago. The Wild weren't actually that far off either. Hockey.

Not very often you see a team win any game (let alone game 7 on the road) with a single-digit shot total. The shot attempts were actually much closer (50-42 in TB's favor), but the xG differential here mirrors what the game looked like. The disparity in shot locations between each team is wild.

Regarding our second round projections: we’re currently not able to run the sim until the first round has finished… So, we’ll have the article out a day or two after the first round finishes. Shooting for a Monday release.

EvolvingWild@evolvingwild.evolving-hockey.com

What??? Flyers vs. Hurricanes starts tomorrow??? Oh c’mon! God dammit

Talking about it more, we might be able to rig something up to post the writeup and projections for the second round as they are announced… We’re gonna try and get on it tonight.

The Colorado Avalanche and Minnesota Wild are 1st and 2nd, respectively, in EV goal differential per 60 (score adjusted) through the first round of 25-26 playoffs - this very likely won't change. They'll meet in the second round and got there in wildly different ways.