Effectively Wild Stats

Effectively Wild Stats

@ewstats.com

Keeping you up to date on stats about @ewpod.bsky.social, the podcast about stats. Managed by @chrishanel.com (posts here don't represent ben, meg, fangraphs, or decoy the dog)

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Keeping an eye on the 'new manager being fired' prediction, and both Vitello and Albernaz have been given public votes of confidence for being kept on. I think this might come down to whether Kurt Suzuki is fired, but even if he is, the lockout might delay that move past our game's deadline.

Oh, right - Suzuki was only on a one-year contract. We're past the point where he can qualify. (Going to chalk this one up to brain fog from being sick for the last three days, forgive me 🤧)

I showed this post to Ben and he reports that "the drummer's songs are good" more news as it develops

Ken Jennings@kenjennings.bsky.social

Canada is maybe the best country. I love Canada so much that when I listen to Sloan I don’t even skip the drummer’s songs.

Effectively Wild Stats reposted

Replying to @baumann.bsky.social

I wanted Jake Mangum will produce more WAR than Konnor Griffin real bad but I'll take this

Effectively Wild Stats reposted

Friends, we have arrived at the promised land

On September 25th, the user "AustinSlayyyter" uploaded the story "He's Hot, (V)I Tell(O) You!" depecting an erotic scene between Tony Vitello and Kyle Shanahan. @baumann.bsky.social 's prediction is declared TRUE.

Of course! That possibility needed to be weighed by everyone when determining the likelihood. I've repeatedly advised to be on the lookout for chances to influence outcomes and this was definitely one of them.

Jeremy Venook@jvenook.bsky.social

If it turns out that it’s one of the participants and/or a listener who’s specifically trying to rig the results, does it still count?

Konnor Griffin now leads Jake Mangum, 1.4 to 1.1 fWAR. This may be the first post I've made that correctly spells *both* of their names, and I'm still not 100% confident.

We are going to have a FLURRY of predictions breaking one way or another in the next couple days so will have a full summary at the close of the regular season, but with the Orioles being eliminated, 4 AL Teams making the postseason falls to FALSE.

Aaron Judge has been placed on the IL, meaning he's all but certain to end the season at 18 HR. Cal Raleigh need 19 HR to claim the AL lead, so I think Meg's prediction is *fairly* safe.

Okay, after doing more research, I don't believe this would count. There's no quotes supporting that this was his throw day, and he's apparently been lobbying to be a legit bullpen option for awhile now in order to keep their postseason hopes alive.

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CORBIN CARROLL 20/20/20/20 WATCH Carroll needs 4 more triples in 9 games: - 3 games at home vs NYY (good triples park) - 3 games away @ COL (very good triples park) - 3 games away @ SDP (NOT a good triples park)

Predictions Game update for @megrowler.fangraphs.com: - Konnor Griffin: 1.1 fWAR - Judge (17), Raleigh (21) trail the AL HR lead (40) - Corbin Carroll is 4 3B's away from 20/20/20/20 - PIT is 3rd in NLC, 8 back of CHC in 2nd - Garcia (1.7) behind Witt Jr. (6.5) for KC fWAR - ATH SP are 30th in FIP

Predictions game update for @benclemens.bsky.social: - Kyle Teel only has 0.5 fWAR, which is 10th for CWS hitters - Zac Gallen has a 6.22 ERA with only 101.1 IP - Semien (1096.2) is 8th for innings at 2B, with Ozzie Albies leading (1275) - Sal Frelick has -0.2 fWAR - Kerry Carpenter: 20 wRC+ vs LHP

In other Preseason Predictions game news for @baumann.bsky.social : - Jake Magnum (1.4) currently leads Konnor Griffin (1.1) in fWAR - Mickey Moniak (22) trails Bryce Harper (27) in HR by a #1 draft pick - Murakami's 170 K's is 30 ahead of CWS's hits leader (Meidroth at 140)

Since 1910, there have been 124,497 innings on record in AL/NL play with at least 4 hits recorded. Only 82 (0.07%) were scoreless. This is the first one since 2015. (h/t Michael Mountain)

Roger Cormier@themetsnewsletter.com

Carson Benge threw out two Padres from right field in one inning.

Corbin Carroll is up to 13 triples 👀

Sarah Langs@slangsonsports.bsky.social

10.82 seconds home-to-third for Corbin Carroll Second-fastest home-to-3rd time in MLB this season Third-fastest since the start of 2024 Carroll has each of the Majors’ top 7 home-to-3rd times since the start of ‘24 and 8 of the top 9 in span

The Twins just won a 9-inning game in which they hit 5 GIDPs, a feat only accomplished 104 times. That's rarer than throwing a no-hitter! Only 11 teams have won a game with 6 GIDPs, most recently the Astros in 2018. Nobody has ever won with 7. (Stats provided by Michael Mountain)