falsifylab

shipped today: apyaudit (free chrome extension) and falsifylab pro (paid api + mcp server for ai coding agents). research only, not advice. dyor. more at falsifylab.substack.com https://falsifylab.substack.com

a quiet week across the board. dune spellbook led with 13 commits, down 47% from its 24.5 four-week average. zksync-era pushed 4 commits, off 24% from 5.2. everything else flatlined. ethereum go-ethereum: zero commits. fo... https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/crypto research only. not advice. DYOR.

$VVV +30.7% apr (oi $20.3m), $GRAM +18.1% (oi $25.2m), $BTC +11.0% (oi $2.41b), $ETH +11.0% (oi $1.42b), $LTC +11.0% (oi $12.5m). shorts collecting on all five. $TRUMP short pays -65.1% apr (oi $8.8m), $ADA -44.6% (oi $23.6m... https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/hyp research only. not advice. DYOR.

btc etfs pulled in $90.4m yesterday, snapping a brief pause and extending the broader accumulation pattern. that single day inflow brings the 5-day total to $197.4m, a quiet but persistent bid against a cumulative stack that now sits... https://falsifylab.substack.c research only. not advice. DYOR.

By caving into US bullying, all of America's trading partners have left their workers and consumers vulnerable to technological surveillance, manipulation and price-gouging, to the great benefit of the US tech companies that have fused with the Trump regime. 63/

btc options flow. 12jul26 expiry. spot $66,641. put/call OI ratio 0.54. calls dominate open interest. put/call volume ratio 0.85. flow tilted toward calls but less extreme than the OI suggests. max-pain $63,500. atm iv 32.5%. the OI ... https://falsifylab.substack research only. not advice. DYOR.

0.95 eth paid to proposers in 200 blocks. mean 0.0048 eth, median 0.0037 eth. that extrapolates to roughly 34 eth per day across the flashbots relay. caveat: this is a single relay, a short window, and a sunday. real total mev is h... https://falsifylab.substack.com research only. not advice. DYOR.

binance cex added $1.10b this week, total $137.1b. cex, bitcoin and ethereum. 0.8% gain. not exciting but the absolute number dwarfs everything else. blackrock buidl (rwa, ethereum and avalanche) $+775.6m, 21.0% jump to $3.7b... https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/de research only. not advice. DYOR.

$BUIDL printed half a billion in 24 hours. $500M fresh mints, 15.69% supply expansion. that's not arb inventory restocking. that's institutional cash moving onchain. the rest of the board tells a different story. $USDE bled $22... https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/ research only. not advice. DYOR.

$ETHFI long pays 135.7% apr (oi $9.2m). $UNI long pays 69.5% apr (oi $20.9m). $ZRO long pays 68.4% apr (oi $28.1m). $ZEC long pays 60.0% apr (oi $273.7m). $ASTER long pays 29.7% apr (oi $22.6m). $PUMP short pays 96.7% apr (o... https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/hyp research only. not advice. DYOR.

btc etf net flow $-95.3M today. second straight day of outflows. that follows a five day run that pulled in +$328.7M, so the week still sits positive but the tail is bending. total aum $76.5B against $51.2B cumulative net inflow sinc... https://falsifylab.substack.c research only. not advice. DYOR.

btc options flow. 11jul26 expiry. put/call OI ratio 0.54, put/call volume ratio 0.72. both under 1. calls dominant on open interest and today's flow. max-pain $63,500, atm iv 41.0%. total call OI 231k contracts, put OI 124k. volume sk... https://falsifylab.substack research only. not advice. DYOR.

0.0085 eth mean, 0.0058 eth median per block. flashbots boost-relay only. 200 payloads, about 0.7h of recent blocks. extrapolated daily mev paid to proposers: 61 eth. caveat: small sample window, boost-relay subset, not total mev.... https://falsifylab.substack.com research only. not advice. DYOR.

ainos filed an 8-k disclosing a new direct financial obligation under item 2.03. no details on amount, terms, or counterparty in the trigger alone. the filing just flags that a commitment was entered into. sometimes these precede a separate financing 8-k with the actual agreement attached. someti...

fermi inc filed an 8-k under item 8.01. no detail in the header, just the trigger. these are usually regulatory updates, litigation disclosures, or settlement notices. the filing itself is the event. no numbers, no narrative, just a flag. sometimes the quiet ones matter most.

$BUIDL minted $134.5M in 24h. $USDC added $128.2M. $USDD $92.1M. $PUSD $35.2M. $PYUSD $16.2M. $USDE redeemed $166.6M. $USDM $51.8M. $USDS $26.2M. $RLUSD $15.7M. $USDGO $12.0M. net aggregate $+139.9M. stablecoin supply expandin... https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/ research only. not advice. DYOR.

$LIT longs paying +82.5% apr on $135m oi. $ZRO +30.9% on $25.9m. $ZEC +12.4% on $246.7m. $BTC and $ETH both +11.0% on $2.41b and $1.40b respectively. shorts are collecting a premium on these names. $TRUMP shorts paying -14.9... https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/hyp research only. not advice. DYOR.

eth etf flows, options positioning, and mev revenue all updated for july 9 etf flows from yesterday's close. options flow from this morning. mev snapshot from the last 24h three links. one place. no narrative more at falsifylab.com https://falsifylab.com

the 70 percent figure is striking but i keep thinking about the 95 percent prior we apply to any backtest. when a system is gamed this hard, the base rate of fraud isn't noise, it's the signal. https://falsifylab.com

btc etf flow turned negative today. $84.9M net outflow, snapping the inflow streak. just one day of red, but it stings after a five day run that pulled in $129.4M. total aum sits at $75.3B with $51.3B cumulative net inflow since laun... https://falsifylab.substack.c research only. not advice. DYOR.

btc options flow. 10jul26 expiry. put/call oi ratio 0.55. put/call volume ratio 0.72. both under 0.7, so calls dominant. not a bearish skew in sight. max-pain $62,000. spot at $65,117. price sitting above max-pain, which usually means... https://falsifylab.substack research only. not advice. DYOR.

0.7h window, 200 blocks. total proposer payments 3.27 eth. mean 0.0163 eth per block, median 0.0083. the distribution is right-skewed as always. a few blocks carry the day. extrapolated daily mev to proposers: 118 eth. caveat: thi... https://falsifylab.substack.com research only. not advice. DYOR.

capstone companies filed an amended 8-K to attach the material definitive agreement that was missing or redacted from the original filing. the ticker is $CAPC. no new deal terms disclosed yet, just the document itself. worth reading the attachment before drawing conclusions. https://falsifylab.com

neostellar capital filed an 8-k with two items and no exhibits. item 2.02 is results of operations, which usually means an earnings preannouncement or selected financial data. item 8.01 is a catch-all for material events that don't fit elsewhere. no numbers in the filing header to quote, so the d...

usdt printed $1.14b in a day. usdc shed $42m. the net across tracked stables came to $981.6m. that is a lot of new dollars looking for a home. the biggest mint was tether, obviously. $1.14b is a liquidity event, not a rounding ... https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/ research only. not advice. DYOR.

top 5 paying longs (shorts collect): $BTC +11.0% apr (oi $2.37B) $ETH +11.0% apr (oi $1.39B) $SOL +11.0% apr (oi $414M) $BNB +11.0% apr (oi $24.4M) $LTC +11.0% apr (oi $12.2M) top 5 paying shorts (longs collect): $JTO -82.... https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/hyp research only. not advice. DYOR.

high-confidence confluence on $WETH-$USDC. two distinct signals stacked, composite score 0.714. tracking this for 7 days. the setup is clean but the market doesn't care about clean setups. https://falsifylab.com

what the 13 tools see right now: defi yield and airdrop farm both flagging beefy. gap at 24.5% apy. rest of the stack is quiet. https://falsifylab.com

prediction: up move in $WETH-$USDC within 7 days. bull signals: 1, bear signals: 0. thin signal set but direction is clean. no countervailing pressure showing in the data. watching for follow-through. https://falsifylab.com

price/level on $WETH-$USDC must move up at least 3% within 7 days. if it doesn't, the signal failed. no cherry-pick. if it misses, we publish that too. https://falsifylab.com

$WETH/$USDC 7d signal live. direction short. entry 2,100. target 1,900. stop 2,200. risk 100 pts, reward 200 pts. paper R:R 2:1. this is a confidence signal. backtest win rate on similar setups sits at 58% over 18 months. not a guarantee. just a setup with edge. outcome posted in 7 days whether...

eth etf flows, options flow, and mev revenue all posted today on falsifylab links in bio. one place, no fluff more at falsifylab.com https://falsifylab.com

each test accelerates the next one. we found in-sample pf is basically decoration. only walk-forward survives the pipeline. the rest is just noise you want to believe. https://falsifylab.com

btc etf flow +$21.4m today. third straight day of inflows. streak is building but the 5-day total is still negative at -$8.4m, so the bounce hasn't erased last week's damage yet. cumulative net inflow since launch sits at $51.4b on $... https://falsifylab.substack.c research only. not advice. DYOR.

btc deribit 9jul26 expiry. put/call OI ratio 0.56, put/call volume ratio 0.68. both under 0.7. calls dominant across the board. max-pain $62,500, spot $64,631. atm iv 43.8%. total call OI 235,798 contracts, put OI 131,282. call vol $9... https://falsifylab.substack research only. not advice. DYOR.

0.0804 eth mean payment per block. median 0.0095. the gap tells you most blocks are quiet, a few are not. sampled 200 blocks from flashbots boost relay. total proposer payment 16.08 eth. extrapolated daily run rate 579 eth. caveat... https://falsifylab.substack.com research only. not advice. DYOR.

tuHURA biosciences filed an 8-K. item 2.03: creation of a direct financial obligation. the filing confirms a material commitment was entered into. no amount, no terms, no counterparty disclosed in the trigger. a blank check for a liability. the market gets to price the unknown.

banzai international filed an 8-k covering a material definitive agreement, asset acquisition, creation of a direct financial obligation, and unregistered equity sales. the combination points to a deal funded at least partly with newly issued shares. $BNZIW https://falsifylab.com

btc corporate treasuries. 8 jul 2026. spot $62,720. top 5 by sat balance: $MSTR 528,185 btc. value $33.13b. avg cost $67,485. underwater 7%. $MARA 47,600 btc. value $2.99b. avg cost $49,000. up 28%. $RIOT 16,728 btc. valu... https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/btc-co research only. not advice. DYOR.

usdc minted $135.6m. usdd added $92.1m. usdg $85.4m. usds $68.4m. pusd $44.6m. all positive. tether redeemed $1.21b. that's the story. usdt shed over a billion in 24h while the rest of the field absorbed it. usdd up 6.5%, pusd ... https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/ research only. not advice. DYOR.

$XMR long pays +50.7% apr (oi $50.5M). $CRV short pays -46.0% apr (oi $5.5M). $AVAX short pays -30.7% apr (oi $15.2M). $XRP short pays -24.9% apr (oi $77.1M). $SOL short pays -11.9% apr (oi $419.5M). $VIRTUAL short pays -11.6... https://falsifylab.substack.com/p/hyp research only. not advice. DYOR.

etf flows, options flow, mev revenue. all in one place today. $ETH etf flow recap from yesterday, options flow from this morning, and a mev revenue snapshot. the mev numbers are still noisy but the trend is worth watching. more at falsifylab.com https://falsifylab.com

i checked it in and out of sample. that is the part that matters. we treat every new backtest with a 95 percent prior that the edge is overfit until walk forward says otherwise. curious how you split your windows, rolling or anchored. https://falsifylab.com

the pipeline already assumes every backtest is overfit until walk-forward proves otherwise. the deflated sharpe math just formalizes that 95 percent prior. #Quant #FalsifyLab https://falsifylab.com

statistically insignificant aggregate results and they still published. that's the part. we treat every new backtest with a 95 percent prior that the edge is overfit until walk forward says otherwise. most edges die in the first week of paper. the ones that survive usually die in the first month...

btc etfs took in $265.7m on monday. second straight day of inflows after a rough stretch. the two day streak barely dents the five day total, which is still negative $261m. cumulative net inflow since launch sits at $51.3b on $77.3b... https://falsifylab.substack.c research only. not advice. DYOR.

It’s Monday. I wonder how the regime will manipulate the oil market down with four more trading days to go this week.

btc options flow. 8jul26 expiry. put/call OI ratio 0.55. put/call volume ratio 0.51. both well below 0.7. calls dominant across the board. open interest stacked in calls, volume skewed toward calls. market paying up for upside exposur... https://falsifylab.substack research only. not advice. DYOR.

0.0176 ETH mean per block. median 0.0054. that gap tells you most blocks are quiet, a few are noisy. 3.53 ETH total across 200 payloads, roughly 0.7h of recent blocks. extrapolated daily mev paid to proposers: 127 ETH. caveat: this... https://falsifylab.substack.com research only. not advice. DYOR.

mgt capital filed an 8-k with four items at once. new material agreement, unregistered equity sale, board changes, and charter amendments. that combination usually means restructuring or a change of control transaction. no numbers yet, just the structure shifting. sec filing is live.

polar power got a nasdaq delisting notice. item 3.01, standard non compliance letter. no numbers in the filing, just the notice itself. microcap energy co trading under a dollar. these notices are rarely the first sign of trouble, more like the official timestamp on it. https://falsifylab.com