François Hublet

🍃 September issue 📊Dataset @fhublet.bsky.social presents BLUE_EP dataset, covering European Parliament elections between 2019 and 2024 and providing results for 90,000 EU27 Local Administrative Units and 500 parties/list in each election. 👉️ buff.ly/U3oAsYh

❇️ FirstView - 📊Dataset @fhublet.bsky.social presents BLUE_EP dataset, covering European Parliament elections between 2019 and 2024 and providing results for 90,000 EU27 Local Administrative Units and 500 parties/list in each election. 👉️ buff.ly/U3oAsYh

France, Germany, Britain, and the EU have a lot in common these days: 👉Huge pressure on executives 👉Unpopular leadership 👉Rightward shifts in voting behavior In all, a similar phenomenon complicates majority-building: voters are divided into 3 blocks of roughly equal size 👇

🗳️🇲🇩 As Moldova is counting, a solid pro-EU majority emerges, yet PAS will likely need a coalition partner to govern. #alegeri #moldovaelections Follow the count live on @grandcontinent.bsky.social right now 👇 legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/09/2...

Dass Menschen im heutigen Frankreich so schlecht Deutsch sprechen, hat vor allem mit zu tun, dass Englisch eine massive Vormachtstellung im frz. Schulsystem genießt. 🙃 Unklar bleibt dabei allein, ob Leavitts Äußerung als eher frankophob oder eher germanophob zu deuten sei.

After the AfD's surge on Sunday, far right parties are the most voted-for of any grouping in Europe, for the first time in history: www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

— Service reminder 🔔 — This is what Trump's majority giving him the mandate to turn U.S. global policy upside down looks like 👇

Gone is the GroKo. #Bundestagswahl2025

Wir präsentieren: Der Wagenknecht-Tracker. Wird jede Minute aus frischsten Bundeswahlleiterin-Daten aktualisiert. #Bundestagswahl2025 datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nArz6/

Clear patterns in the youngest and oldest 🇩🇪 cohorts On the left, the Bundestag if only 18-24 year-olds voted: 🔴 Linke + 🔴 SPD + 🟢 Grüne hold a slight majority On the right, the Bundestag if only 70+ year-olds voted: ⚫️ CDU/CSU + 🟡 FDP would not need any 3rd partner

First data pouring in right now in @grandcontinent.bsky.social as 🇩🇪 is counting. Our live coverage is here: legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/02/21/

Very interesting to look at the age distribution in the exit poll. The SPD which already did very poorly with young voters last time continues to loose further there - a party of pensioners. Interestingly, also huge losses for the Greens among young voters and massive gains for the Linke.

25% kam aus Österreich, 30% von den 500 reichsten deutschen Familien, 5% aus dem Osten Deutschlands, und nur 2% von Spenderinnen. Mit C. Kleine haben wir für @grandcontinent.bsky.social die Großspenden im Wahlkampf unter die Lupe genommen 👇 #Bundestagswahl2025 legrandcontinent.eu/de/2025/02/2...

“Being tired of the traffic light, they wanted a GroKo or Germany but eventually got Kenya” In case you feel lost in the 🇩🇪 coalition jungle, I have compiled some useful information for you to survive the next 48 hours 👇 #Bundestagswahl2025

A lot of speculation why Trump is doing what he is. As I told @kyivindependent.com @chrisdyork.bsky.social on Thurs, there’s 3 options 1. Putting Europeans on notice (unlikely) 2. Splitting Russia from China (misguided) 3. Embracing the Dark side (nightmare). kyivindependent.com/how-ukraine-...

“Being tired of the traffic light, they wanted a GroKo or Germany but eventually got Kenya” In case you feel lost in the 🇩🇪 coalition jungle, I have compiled some useful information for you to survive the next 48 hours 👇 #Bundestagswahl2025

Notre prochain mardi du Grand Continent à @normalesup.bsky.social portera sur les élections allemandes. Avec @guillaumeduval.bsky.social, @fhublet.bsky.social, @josephdeweck.bsky.social, @vdubslaff.bsky.social, @rikefranke.bsky.social, @pmennerat.bsky.social. legrandcontinent.eu/fr/evenement...

In the 2024 campaign, Musk donated $288M. You may think this was a major investment. It wasn't. $288M is 0.066% of Musk's wealth, akin to a $74 donation for a median U.S. household. Musk's only trick: His wealth is 4 million times higher than the median. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

DeepSeek's censorship of Taiwanese independence goes brrr: “The Basque Country is an inseparable part of China” 👇 [NB: This post does not make any political statement on Basque independence, but only aims at highlighting DeepSeek's behavior on geopolitical issues.]

So far Merz's move has had little demoscopic effect. It has, however, fueled left-right polarization, with hundreds of thousands on the left taking to the street to protest against the center-right. This suggests that Merz (i) knows his base and (ii) is ready to break with political tradition.

Редакция газеты Le Monde осуждает отзыв аккредитации у своего корреспондента

Self-proclaimed minimal-state advocates promoting authoritarian rule. Self-proclaimed free-market capitalists putting the richest of their kind in power. Self-proclaimed libertarians cracking down on academic freedom. Trumpism may be to liberalism what Stalinism was to socialism.

As far as I know, this is absolutely unprecedented in recent decades in any democratically ruled polity. Well-accepted *scientific* concepts being censored away from and by a government-affiliated body.

Here is what Germany's regional coalitions could look like were the CDU/CSU to abandon their “firewall” policy vis-à-vis the AfD. Except for 3 city-states, not a single region would avoid a CDU-AfD government. In most of the East, AfD officials could even serve as regional presidents.

Etwa so könnte die neue politische Dystopie aussehen, falls die #Brandmauer heute wirklich wegfallen würde. Stand jetzt sind alle Flächenländer gefährdet.

🗳️🇦🇹 En Autriche, le président Alexander van der Bellen (Verts) vient d'ouvrir la porte au premier chancelier d’extrême droite depuis la Seconde Guerre mondiale. Voici la traduction et le commentaire de son discours👇 legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/01/0...

Value change is real, but the perennial question remains: are these age or cohort differences? 🇺🇸

The first complete dataset on European elections over the whole continent, made by the @BLUE_GEG_org team. Check it out!

🇫🇷🗳️ Évolution du nombre de ministres par région 👇 📈 Les gagnantes Bourgogne-Franche-Comté : 1 → 2 Corse : 0 → 1 Normandie : 1 → 2 📉 Les perdantes Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes : 4 → 0 Centre-Val-de-Loire : 2 → 0 🟰 Stable Île-de-France : 4 → 4

🗺️🗳️ Si le gouvernement Bayrou est moins parisien que l'ex-gouvernemental Attal, il est loin d'être méridional : François Bayrou est seul issu de la France d'oc 👇

🗺️🏅 Very happy to announce that our paper Where the Borders Lie: Mapping Cross-Border Communities in 10 Western European Countries co-authored with Aurore Sallard @ethzurich.bsky.social has received a 2024 Fred Burggraf Paper Award! journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....

🗳️🇷🇴 Here is how the Romanian diaspora voted 👇 🟠 Georgescu (far-right) wins 🇩🇪🇬🇧🇮🇹🇧🇪🇦🇹🇫🇷🇪🇸🇮🇪 🔵 Lasconi (liberal) wins 🇲🇩, East, Paris, Berlin, 🇳🇱🇸🇪🇵🇹 🟢 Kelemen (Hungarian minority party) wins 🇭🇺