FiftyPlusOne.news

Welcome to The Trendline: Oops, All Nuggets! blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/the-most-i...

NEWS: The website and social media accounts for pollster SoCal Strategies have been taken offline after FiftyPlusOne reached out to the firm Tuesday to verify data quality and potential ties to Wedgewood Polls, which admitted to fabricating data this week. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/more-polls...

50+1 has caught another pollster faking data: fiftyplusone.substack.com/p/fiftypluso...

There's absolutely not enough polls this cycle. fiftyplusone.substack.com/p/where-are-...

New Trendline: we preview key Supreme Court cases this year, and take a look at how voters feel about the issues before the Court this term. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/how-do-vot...

Exciting update: FiftyPlusOne is partnering with @ms.now for polling and election analysis ahead of the midterms! See below for more details. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/fiftypluso...

A dispatch from the Methods Desk: we're no longer accepting campaign internals conducted without a professional pollster. Find out why: blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/campaigns-...

New Trendline: Where do voters stand on the most consequential ballot measures this year? We dig in to all the latest polling on taxes, voting, transgender issues, and more. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/where-do-v...

Flock cameras are everywhere lately, both literally and in the news. Today's Trendline takes a look at how unpopular these cameras are with Americans across the political spectrum, and what uses are (and aren't) acceptable. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/flock-came...

New Trendline this week: where do Hispanic voters stand ahead of the election? blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/hispanic-v...

If it feels like every poll you’ve seen this year came from a Democratic campaign and showed a toss-up, you’re not imagining things. Dem. internals make up an all-time high share of internals this year, and are showing better margins than 2018 in red states. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/why-does-e...

According to our election model at FiftyPlusOne.news, control of the U.S. Senate now leans toward Democrats. The party has been buoyed by new polls showing it ahead in TX, IA, AK, OH, & ME, and has a 64% chance to control the chamber after November's midterms fiftyplusone.news/forecast/sen...

New: Ahead of the midterms, who do (and don't) Americans trust for accurate information? blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/maybe-amer...

We’re adding a new scatter chart to our forecast for subscribers only that shows how the national popular vote in the 2026 midterm election translates to seats in the House and Senate. fiftyplusone.news/forecast/house

New: Concern about corruption in the U.S. government just hit a record high, and exceeds concerns in virtually every other country on Earth. Are voters right to be worried? blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/the-us-isn...

New: As the trade wars heat up, even Americans approve of Canada's retaliatory tariffs. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/even-ameri...

Trendline this week: rural and suburban voters are looking more Democratic on the generic ballot than at any time in the last decade. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/rural-and-...

We are permanently banning one firm and suspending another for apparent ethics violations. Read more: substack.com/home/post/p-...

New: Independent voters could decide the midterms. And on every metric we looked at, they are unhappy. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/independen...

We adjusted fifteen years of campaign finance data so we could crown the One True Most Expensive Primary Election Ever (so far): Michigan's 2026 Democratic primary for Senate blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/this-years...

The new @fiftyplusone.news general election polling averages also include five gov races where they have enough data to generate averages. Dems are leading in Iowa and Ohio fiftyplusone.news/averages

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FiftyPlusOne is very excited to release our polling averages for Senate and governor elections today! There's a new page on the website just for general election averages, and a blog post with some takeaways on the current state of the race here: blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/general-el...

DDHQ spoke w/ @fiftyplusone.news's Primary Project about which groups have been successful in 2026. It can be hard to register how well groups like AIPAC have done — not always clear who they support, though they may oppose someone, like Tom Malinowski in February #NJ11 special.

New: Affordability concerns are even higher now than in the run-up to the 2024 elections. We check in on how people are feeling about inflation and the president's standing on the issue. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/affordabil...

I think armchair political pundits have a tendency to treat polling as too much of a predictor. It is not a predictor. And there are real limitations. The aggregated averages are better to look at. I like @fiftyplusone.news. They do a good job.

FiftyPlusOne.news is delighted to announce that for the remainder of the 2026 election cycle, the remarkable and talented Cooper Burton will be working with us! Cooper is an incredible researcher and writer, and we're so happy to have him.

Love the new @fiftyplusone.news midterms forecasts! fiftyplusone.news/forecast/house

Latest at @fiftyplusone.news: We built a dataset tracking every primary endorsement from Trump, progressive groups, party committees, women’s groups, and pro-Israel groups. Halfway through the season, here's who's winning. 🧵 blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/primary-pr...

New primary data @fiftyplusone.news confirms a pattern political scientists have flagged for years: Women with endorsements are winning primaries at high rates in both parties, but the opportunity structure around them is wildly unequal🧵 (full story here open.substack.com/pub/fiftyplu...)

50+1 is very happy to publish this analysis of 2026 primary candidates from @meredithconroy.bsky.social @tsyang27.bsky.social & Cooper Burton, following the tradition of similar projects from FiveThirtyEight. What types of candidates are winning 2026 primaries? blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/primary-pr...

Donald Trump's net approval has reached a new low today in our tracker. His net approval sits at -24.1. The previous low was -23.7, achieved on May 27. fiftyplusone.news/polls/approv...

New: DSA candidates are winning primaries all around the country. But how popular is their platform with the American people? We dig in on key issues, including healthcare, Israel/Palestine, and criminal justice reform, to see how broad their appeal might be. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/how-popula...

New: Trump's speech about election integrity was full of refuted claims. But Americans and political experts are worried about how our elections are conducted, and have concerns about our democracy. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/americans-...

Another Supreme Court term has come to a close, so for this week’s Trendline Cooper Burton takes a look at public opinion on 14 major decisions including consequential rulings on birthright citizenship, transgender athletes, and campaign finance law. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/major-supr...

A recent poll found almost 70% of registered voters support birthright citizenship. Is that... true? This week on The Trendline, we look at how pollsters ask about this issue, and how it impacts the poll results. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/birthright...

Democrats lead the U.S. House generic ballot among likely voters by 6 points, according to our average. Here we explain a little bit about how our average works (and why, if you're a poll sicko, you may have noticed the historical trend change this morning) blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/an-updated...

New: All the polls we've seen so far about the new Iran deal. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/what-we-kn...

Astonishing stat here from 50+1: Two-thirds of House members seeking a promotion to higher office have lost their primaries—a far higher rate than at any point since 1990. The roster includes seven Republicans and three Dems (plus one member of each party who bailed pre-primary).

New: Are AI campaign ads actually helping campaigns? A look at how consultants are using these ads, and how they might actually backfire. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/ai-campaig...