Five Minute Macro

The real story of the Brazilian election is that this sprawling, poor country can have definitive results in a couple of hours whereas the richest country in the history of the world contrives to take weeks or months to determine same.

The future if Liz Truss hadn't been bested by a head of lettuce.

I think I've sussed out Burnham's political ideology.

Everyone is Twelve truly is the defining political theory of our age.

SBF would totally be running a $30bn AI hedge fund right now. Same energy, and he wouldn't even need to switch polycules.

It's funny, but on the other hand, it's no different to the entire SpaceX investment thesis: 'space big', so I don't see what the problem is.

Thanks, I hate it.

I'm a fervent supporter of the Euro project, but we've been quaking at the prospect of a Le Pen presidency almost as long as I've been in the mkts. I've become radicalised by the 'we've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas, but with any luck we can keep on dodging bullets' school of Euro thought

FOGaSS - next gen can't even acronym right, smdh.

Incredible things happening in Portuguese media.

OMG!

This is why I can't make any money trading the front end - if the algos don't get you, the Chinese honeypot spy rings will. www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/j...

The discourse that truly makes my teeth itch is when people earnestly engage with 'Anthropic researchers estimate a 10% chance that AI will lead to human extinction' or similar nonsense. How exactly do you think they arrived at that conclusion?! I'll tell you: big sloppy fan chart cross x-axis.

Is Bessent likely to get his way on bond yields. Doubt it. But the belief that governments can never get their way strongarming markets seems surprisingly consensus given its clear lack of empirical support. That one time in 1992 that people lazily trot out hardly trumps hundreds of counterexamples.

Lutnick is giving Canada the same treatment he used to give his employees at Cantors. Deeply psychotic individual; think Ben Kingsley in Sexy Beast.

The FT gave Scotty Bessent an outlet for some dreadful sophomoric rambling. I read it so you don't have to.

Bessent trying to control bond yields, exchange rates and oil prices.

Bessent wants to run Treasury like a trader. That this is a terrible idea is immediately evident to anyone who's ever met any traders.

Since it's a slow day, a bit of fun I saw on xxxx: most NSEW places you have been. N: Ivalo 🇫🇮 S: Hermanus 🇿🇦 E: Yasawa Islands 🇫🇯 W: Tofino 🇨🇦

Via Reddit, a modern history of the Argentine football league. Now imagine investing in this country #macrotourist

I don't think the yen story is complicated. Japan don't want the yen to slip slide away, but they don't want it to cascade thirty big figures either on a biblical stop hunt, so perhaps 'ineffectual' intervention is the desired outcome here?

The most diabolical part of this whole lurid story.

Nobody does it quite like them.

This or about a dozen strong alternatives. Elmore Leonard is criminally underfilmed.

I continue to not understand why anyone cares about auditing this guy's fairly fantastical claims. After a while, it just seems a bit weird. www.ft.com/content/5c48...

Mystified how anyone buys this crap. If you want to convince yourself to buy the equity because of totally made up scifi scenarios, fine, it's a moonshot, you do you, but the bonds?! www.ft.com/content/3a02...

Mood

Most reflective USMNT fan:

Went for a sea swim first thing this morning, and I regret to inform you all the insufferable dickheads were right. (no Dryrobe, thanks for asking...)

This piece is pissing me off. Real 'man proposes, but Pimco disposes (of their Gilt holdings)' vibes. Pull your necks in.

Can we point to a single time in history where this has worked out well for all concerned?

'It's hard to fathom.'

Bill is getting dragged for this, but, as Elon has amply demonstrated, having stockholders who are complete morons is truly the largest moat there is in business.

Watergate www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...

Somehow, Palpatine returned.

The way to think about the SpaceX IPO is that it's like the 1990's Russian privatisations, but in reverse.

Henry Blodget was thrown in prison for far less than this.

Chinese stocks tend to trade on low valuations cos everyone in Chinese markets is either a sharp or a mark. It's pure dog eat dog and the dogs know what they're getting into. Trump and Elon ripping out the wiring from the US system of market infrastructure is...not a long-term positive development.

Of all the things that won't happen, this isn't going to happen the most, but credit for getting an FT write-up, I guess. Say what you like about Neom; at least MBS controls vast resources and, more importantly, doesn't have to deal with the English planning system. www.ft.com/content/e50f...