Foreign Policy Research Institute

🗓️ Member Briefing | Tuesday, November 3 | 12:00 PM EST As winter approaches, the war in Ukraine is entering a critical phase. Eurasia Director Emily Holland and Senior Fellow Rob Lee will examine military developments, drone campaigns, evolving demands, and strategic choices facing both sides. ⬇️

27m

This event is part of a series for current FPRI members. If you aren’t a member but would like to attend this and future briefings, visit the link to learn more. buff.ly/emnupeo

buff.lyHow the Gamification of the Battlefield Is Reshaping WarExplore the evolving role of war in the modern battlefield where gamification influences military strategies and performance.

🆕 How the Gamification of the Battlefield is Reshaping War by Lionel Beehner and Oleskii Poltorakov #OrbisJournal

15h

In a piece for The New Region, Mohammed Salih outlines the logic behind what appears to be a US shift in policy toward Iraq. In Iraq, cabinet appointees signal a stance toward either Iran or the United States. Despite months of US pressure against Iran-backed figures, numerous were appointed.

15h

Salih explains that the US might be more accommodating to this move based on hopes that members from Iran-backed factions will adopt a more moderate policy. buff.ly/uF43jNC

17h

A serious strategy for de-risking trade should replace metrics of movement with metrics of exposure. Falling direct imports from China answer only part of the question. The rest is how much China-linked content, tooling, and process knowledge remains embedded in strategic goods. buff.ly/krjvF3e

Samuel Kramer breaks down the benefits of newly elected Estonian President Ülle Madise's legal background and the contentious points surrounding it. Her work experience spans numerous ministries, and she served as Estonia's Justice Chancellor, exercising control of legal compliance in the country. ⬇️

Concerns pointed to the nonpartisan nature of the role, but Madise vowed to keep it independent of the presidency and party politics, boosting her credibility.

More in the #BalticBulletin: buff.ly/v5djt57

buff.lyLessons from Kenya's Failed Peacekeeping Mission in Haiti - FPRI EventsIn October 2022, Haiti’s government requested an international armed force to help it deal with armed gangs who had taken control of most of the country. In

⏰️ 10:30 AM EDT | Thursday, October 29 | Kenya's Failed Peacekeeping Mission in Haiti Register for our upcoming virtual event on Kenya's force deployment to Haiti. The panel will highlight mission issues including funding, equipment, and intelligence, and what the future holds for Haiti's security.

buff.lyShuffling the boardState Duma approves major cabinet changes that strengthen the role of the Finance Ministry

20h

From the latest #BearMarketBrief: - Cabinet changes elevated multiple officials to deputy prime ministers - US envoy Steve Witkoff pushed for Ukraine-Russia peace talks - Key interest rate of 14 percent remained amid inflation concerns in Russia

buff.lySaudi Arabia Expands Missile Production at al-Duwadimi - Foreign Policy Research InstituteJon Landay has a Reuters piece, "Saudi Missile Plant Expansion May Produce More Powerful Missiles," on the ongoing expansion of Saudi Arabia’s

23h

🆕 Saudi Arabia Expands Missile Production at al-Duwadimi by Michael Duitsman and Sam Lair buff.ly/FxNpb7q

buff.lyGermany's Defense Shift: Merz, NATO, and Rearmament - Foreign Policy Research InstituteHowever, with the Russia-Ukraine war continuing just 1500km from the country’s eastern borders, and America’s historical support of NATO uncertain once again

🆕 Germany's Defense Shift: Merz, NATO, and Rearmament by Emily Holland

The status quo in the Persian Gulf may be lost for years and never be fully restored. Even if Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon, it has gained something far more powerful: recognition as a major world economic power through its ability to block access to the Strait of Hormuz. buff.ly/qHBOs9i

buff.lyThe Geopolitics of the Persian Gulf and War with Iran - Foreign Policy Research InstituteGeopolitics, which Webster’s Dictionary defines as the influence of geography, economics, and demographics on a state’s foreign policy, is the axis around

The US will try to restore the status quo in the Persian Gulf. Washington believes that doing so requires ending Iran’s nuclear weapons program and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open to navigation while preventing Iranian control. buff.ly/qHBOs9i

buff.lyCentral Europe on the World StageThe Visegrád Four (V4)—Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia—stand at a pivotal moment in European geopolitics. Long viewed through the lens of regional integration, the V4 countries are…

The Visegrád Four (V4)—Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia—stand at a pivotal moment in European geopolitics. Watch the joint event with New Eastern Europe to find out more. buff.ly/B86DU9T

While popularity alone does not determine competence or ethics, it is proof that Madise’s conduct as Justice Chancellor bolstered the Estonian citizenry’s trust in the office and her personally. buff.ly/v5djt57

buff.lyGraham CrackerPresident Trump signs an EO that waives new sanctions and tariffs on Russia required by the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026.

Mikhail Mishustin, the head of Russia’s main business lobby, called the government’s planned windfall tax on metal and mining firms a disguised turnover tax, meaning that instead of a one-time tax on high unexpected profits, the government will impose a tax regardless of the sectors' earnings.

The United States remains concerned about the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran, feels obligated to protect the Gulf States and Israel, and believes that retreating from the region would come at a high cost to its credibility and national power. ⬇️

Iran’s current regime has three primary aims: remain in power, control the Strait of Hormuz as leverage over the world’s economy, and eject the US from the region to pursue control of the Gulf.

More on the two countries' opposing aims in this analysis piece: buff.ly/qHBOs9i

🆕 Saudi Arabia Expands Missile Production at al-Duwadimi buff.ly/FxNpb7q

Fall is a busy season for FPRI. Keep an eye on our events page for updates on in-person and virtual events. buff.ly/aNMtcyM

buff.lyÜlle Madise: Could a Lawyer Unify Estonia?Estonia’s recently elected president, Ülle Madise, will be the country’s seventh president and only the second woman to hold the office

🆕 Ülle Madise: Could a Lawyer Unify Estonia? by Samuel Kramer

Amy J. Nelson describes her decade-long process in writing her book on arms control. The project solidified following multiple treaty violations, withdrawals, and increased nuclear saber-rattling.

Her experience in cognitive neuroscience, where she tested behavior under the condition of uncertainty, led her to focus on state behavior and arms control work (10:50). buff.ly/nO2XyLg

In Phil Wasielewski's latest analysis, he outlines the history of geopolitics in the Persian Gulf, primarily focusing on the relationship between the United States and Iran to provide context for the present-day war. ⬇️

He details the beginning of the US-Iran conflict starting in 1979, the evolution of concerns over Iran's nuclear program, and where control over the Strait of Hormuz came into play.

The piece emphasizes that the war is a part of an ongoing struggle to establish Iranian dominance in the region within a US-supported system or without it. Check out the full analysis for more details: buff.ly/qHBOs9i

buff.lyGraham CrackerPresident Trump signs an EO that waives new sanctions and tariffs on Russia required by the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026.

The latest #BearMarketBrief details an executive order Donald Trump signed that contradicts the Graham Act, which codifies sanctions on Russian energy, the military, and the shadow fleet. The order was signed two days before the Graham Act took effect.

buff.lyRethinking U.S. Strategy: Disarming Militias and Countering State Capture in Iraq - Middle East Policy CouncilExecutive Summary For years, U.S. policy toward Iraq’s Iran-backed armed factions, known in Iraq by the Arabic fasail, has largely been framed as a security problem. This approach is disconnected…

In a report for the Middle East Policy Council, Mohammed Salih breaks down Iraq's fasail—Iran-backed factions—and their influence network both in and out of the country, as fasail groups maintain ties to nearly a quarter of Iraq's parliamentary representatives and Iran's Axis of Resistance.

If you missed today's panel on Central Europe, catch the full discussion on our YouTube channel. FPRI was joined by New Eastern Europe to highlight the growing importance of the Visegrád Group countries.

In their latest commentary for the #OrbisJournal, Junyang Hu and Jiayu Lai break down the dangers of miscalculating the de-risking of supply chains. ⬇️

As US firms move their supply chains away from China, they detail the success of the United States in looking behind the "final-origin" claim—where the tag on an item says it is from—to factor in capacity, input sourcing, local value added, and shipping patterns.

However, even if a supply chain is considered diversified, in a crisis it may become clear that critical tools, minerals, and process knowledge heavily originate from China-linked networks. buff.ly/qyOl6by

🗓️ Virtual Event | Thursday, October 29 | 10:30 AM EDT In 2022, Haiti requested an international armed force to help it deal with armed gangs. Kenya volunteered to lead a police response in 2024, and by 2026, Kenya began a phased withdrawal of its forces. ⬇️

Join us for a panel discussion focusing on the lessons that senior decision-makers should take from Kenya's police deployment into Haiti. buff.ly/vn3Eqlo

Zimbabwe’s mineral resources make its external relationships' economic dimension particularly consequential. Yet mineral wealth alone does not translate into strategic economic value. buff.ly/A6njf5Y

Drawing on her distinguished career spanning academia and government service, Dr. Tamara Cofman Wittes offers unique insights on bridging the gap between scholarship and practice, navigating Middle East policy, and the ongoing struggles facing global democracy. #ShiftingGround buff.ly/a3tl6oW

buff.lyThe New Geography of America’s China DependenceSummary This article argues that the American de-risking approach has not eliminated dependence on China so much as rerouted and obscured it. While China’s direct share of US imports has fallen…

A factory leaving China does not mean its supply chain has left, and a product shipped through a connector economy may look different in trade statistics while dependencies remain. In such cases, interdependence is being redirected, a pattern we call “triangulated interdependence.” #OrbisJournal

From the latest #BearMarketBrief - US executive order waiving sanctions and tariffs under the Graham Act - Russian government reshuffle, with changes across several ministries and regions - Business leaders pushing against windfall and profit taxes buff.ly/MSgJCqC

🆕 The Geopolitics of the Persian Gulf and War with Iran by Philip Wasielewski

buff.lyZimbabwe's Emerging Relevance in US–Africa Relations - Foreign Policy Research InstituteFor much of the post-Cold War period, Zimbabwe has occupied an uneasy position in the foreign-policy calculations of the United States and its Western

Zimbabwe's shift to build deeper economic ties with the United States comes at the same time as US-Zimbabwe negotiations over US funding of health programs in the country failed. The move reflects a desire to move beyond humanitarian assistance to focus on trade and investment opportunities.

buff.lyEpisode 11 | Managing Uncertainty in the Second Nuclear CenturyExplore the complexities of nuclear credibility and phantom signaling in this insightful conversation with Dr. Amy Nelson.

In Episode 11 of #ShiftingGround, @lprubin73 and @RachelWhitlark sit down with guest @AmyJNelsonPhD. The conversation explores the concept of “phantom signaling” and insights from her book, The Arms Control Paradox: Managing Uncertainty in an Insecure World.

buff.lyCtrl+Alt+DefeatRussia’s diesel deal turns the Trump administration more decisively against Ukraine

Following Ukrainian strikes on Yandex data centers, observers noticed a drop in Russian online bot activity across social platforms. The strikes not only disrupted disinformation operations but also Russian telecommunications and digital infrastructure, as Yandex hosts over 64,000 clients.

⏰️ Last Chance to Register | October 20, 12:00 PM EDT | 18:00 CET New Eastern Europe will join FPRI for a virtual panel discussion spotlighting Central Europe. ⬇️

The panel will explore the political trajectories of the Visegrád Four (V4)—Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia—and how their internal politics will impact regional solidarity and the broader transatlantic alliance. Register here: buff.ly/idFlN0U

Can the United States participate in Zimbabwe’s economic expansion without demanding exclusive alignment? Rather than asking whether Zimbabwe is “with” or “against” Washington, policymakers might ask whether engagement can create sufficient value to make the relationship mutually beneficial.