Aaron Songer

Illegal Border Crossings Plunge to Lowest Level in Decades www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/u... The stat is those that have been caught at border not those they have entered. Crossed but not encountered is unknown by definition. Immigrants are more likely to avoid encounters given current policies.

I wish #mls and #apple would change their tv interface to stop showing scores. No way to catch up on a game or watch a game later without knowing the score. See Peacock interface for EPL and many other sports apps.

I do not know how this is anything but good news for the Democrats. It's a large flying billboard that travels with the president. Every job loss...every person uninsured...will be contrasted with the opulence of this plane and costs to retrofit. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/21/u...

WSJ analysis is pretty good, but I often find their best points are buried in a few sentences in the middle of the analysis like here. The fact is that China does not have elections and the US does. China’s currently in the waiting game, not in the negotiating game. www.wsj.com/world/china/...

The thing is Powell is just one member of a 12 member committee (Federal Open Market Committee) that sets interest rates. For Trump to control interest rates he’d need to fire seven members and find seven replacements. I suspect that’s the main dynamic saving Powell.

From WSJ. I’m not sure how this doesn’t impact recruitment to the military. No one wants to enter an organization that is in chaos. Particularly so when one’s life is literally on the line.

Trumps 4D chess seems more like a new player that learns that the queen is the most powerful piece and releases them up the board trying to attack everything. They soon realize they are exposed and try to retreat and bring other pieces up. Turns into a shambles. Ultimately it’s checkmate.

Not getting a lot of attention, but the government also required that Harvard implement a mask ban. Interesting because we can see ICE agents are consistently using masks. Per the government, this should lead to penalties of not less than suspension.

Small beer, but I paid my federal taxes yesterday and did not receive an email confirmation. Typically, when I pay taxes, I get an email confirmation. I received my state email confirmation and looked at my bank statement and cash was taken out of my account. Just wondering about basic IRS systems.

Here’s the thing about a trade war with China and negotiating leverage. While the next US election (national) isn’t until 2026, that is still well before China’s next election.

PREDICTION: Powell gets fired for not lowering rates fast enough. Open secret is that he wants to get fired to avoid the blame of the coming recession. Other fed governors resign or retire early causing more turmoil.

This guy is fighting (effectively) for the rule of law while large law firms cave to the whims of the administration. We will read about Mr Sandoval-Moshenberg in history books while the partners of large law firm lawyers will only show up in their country club membership records.

PREDICTION: foreign governments will drag out trade negotiations. The USMCA, which was basically a slightly updated NAFTA, took over 2 years to sign. As US started this trade war, it will be under political pressure earlier than other countries. This flips negotiating power.

Looking forward to news articles on Americans traveling to Mexico to purchase iPhones. This will be the new smuggling operation in 2025.

I’m surprised by the lack of comment on the contradictory goals of tariffs to raise money and bring jobs to US. If manufacturing moves to US then there will be no imports and therefore no tariff revenue. Can’t have both.

$6 trillion is $23,000 for every adult in the US.

Until there are 500 clients signing a brief, I’m afraid this is not enough. I’d take 10 clients.

The lede is retaliatory tariffs, but then goes on to note restrictions on exports of rare earth elements. Big difference between paying more for something and not being able to obtain it at all. Countries will find choke points and stop the export of those intermediate goods. tinyurl.com/37caeevm

From WSJ, it took a global pandemic to lose this much US market value in a day.

images.app.goo.gl/o1EvgYFvMm1M... PREDICTION: I expect we will have news stories in a few weeks that describe snarls in importing goods because of the inability of customs to clear. Goods will be sitting on docks because system/people required to apply so many different tariff rates are burdened.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol... PREDICTION: Countries will implement a digital sales or an excise tax based on app usage. It could target US social media companies by having a revenue floor. Countries point to a combination of tariffs, harm done by companies and monopoly profits as reason for tax.

Brutal but fair analysis. How can someone trust their lawyer to defend them if they won’t defend themselves.

Called it back in February. It's the right decision. www.cnn.com/2025/04/02/p...

If our government can deport someone and then argue that they can not return them because they are not in custody then there is nothing stopping them from 'mistakenly' deporting US citizens. That's why due process is so important. This is not just an immigration issue. www.wsj.com/us-news/law/...

PREDICTION: Trump will ban TikTok when he realizes that the algorithm feeds aren’t a net positive for him.

WSJ Opinion page finds an individual with 3 employees that supports tariffs. I’m all for diverse views and I recognize that WSJ is against tariffs, but if a paper has to go to that level, perhaps don’t run it at all.

So, for all of you out there that have a birthday on July 4, what’s the advice for those that have birthdays on April 2, Liberation day? Is it a good or bad thing?

This is constitutional. 22nd amendment doesn’t allow a person to be ELECTED more than twice. Vance could run as president with Trump as VP and then resign once his term begins. Trump becomes president and can serve. The media should treat this as something legitimate. nbcnews.to/42eljD7

www.nytimes.com/2025/03/28/u... In an era of looking for savings, stopping an entire delegation to a remote base seems like a good place to start. What began as a ‘cultural exchange’ to watch dog sledding race is now a visit to a small base. Performative waste of $s.

So, the tariffs will go into place. Pain will immediately take place (higher car prices etc). Then, Trump will look for a ‘win’ with an individual country such that they cave on some meaningless matter. Don’t be like the law firms. Stick together…Europe, Canada, Mexico, do not capitulate

What if AI will be just like spreadsheets. A ubiquitous tool used by consumers and companies, but not something that brings long term competitive advantage. With all these new AI models, are we just at the VisiCalc, Quattro Pro, Lotus 1-2-3 stage?

www.nytimes.com/2025/03/24/u... In response to this security breech, Congressman Fitzpatrick is going to write a letter to the DNI office. The Director of National Intelligence WAS ON the text chain. He was an FBI agent. He knows how to investigate. This isn’t it.

There are currently 5 Republican co-signers to the impeachment article. The Dem’s could also vote to release impeachment article to Judiciary committee. It’ll take up a lot of time, leaving less to vote in new judges. Unlike CR, Senate can protect this approach. www.axios.com/2025/03/18/d...

I thought this was a good set up for towels that provides access from shower and sink at my stay @ Courtyard Marriott. Shower is on far side so towels don’t get wet but easy access. #cleverdesign

From the WSJ. Two quotes from Dem posts on X. Why not post to BlueSky first? Looking forward to a time when quotes are not referencing X or Truth Social.

Made this prediction 19 days ago and I’m no lawyer. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/07/n...

Prediction back on January 31. Just saying. www.cnbc.com/2025/03/10/o...

In 1939, Germany's economy was 1/3 larger than the UK's. In 2024, the UK's economy is 2/3 larger than Russia.