garyking.bsky.social

New 2026 US House & Senate election forecasts, using available political science knowledge & our methods from “If a Statistical Model Predicts That Common Events Should Occur Only Once in 10,000 Elections, Maybe It’s the Wrong Model” with @DannyCEbanks and @Jonathan_N_Katz. GaryKing.org/electit

New paper: "Who's to Blame for Survey Instability: Respondents with Nonexistent Preferences or Researchers with Flawed Measures?" with @LibbyJenke. Comments welcome! GaryKing.org/instability

New software: "Projoint: The One Stop Conjoint Stop" (with @aaronrkaufman & @YusakuHoriuchi), makes conjoint surveys easier & less biased, with everything from a drag-and-drop web survey design tool to specialized statistical analysis software. Suggestions welcome. yhoriuchi.github.io/projoint/

My talk on measurement error in conjoint survey analysis at UCF. youtu.be/yVuiAh59Hew using slides (download and view in Adobe Reader or Skim): gking.harvard.edu/presentation...

Teaching or taking stats? Here's a new paper & app for you: "Statistical Intuition Without Coding (or Teachers)" with @NatLou21, @ZagrebMukerjee, & Dominic Skinnion. See gking.harvard.edu/2k1

New paper: "How American Politics Ensures Electoral Accountability in Congress" with @DannyCEbanks and @Jonathan_N_Katz. We'd appreciate an email with any comments you might have. See gking.harvard.edu/acc