Patrick De Haan

average gasoline and diesel prices stubbornly holding in familiar territory: $4.26/gal for gasoline, $6.35/gal for diesel. prices may slip a few cents but long term relief remains elusive.

ALERT: Live data showing that #GasPrices appear to be rising to $4.09/gal in #Delaware today.

ALERT: Live data showing that #GasPrices appear to be rising to $4.09/gal in #Maryland today.

The sheer size of BP’s Whiting refinery: one of the top 10 refineries in the U.S., currently processing over 400,000 barrels of primarily Canadian oil per day, with some ~20 million barrels of total storage (my estimate).

oil mkt summary (10/26): Dec WTI -$1.51 to $101.76, Brent -91c to $115.81 as Saudi Arabia’s defense minister visited Iran to cool tensions. ULSD -7.2c to $4.91 on reports Russian diesel is headed to the US. RBOB +0.7c to $3.22. subscribe for more insights on market moves

Prices go up every time some “tinpot dictator decides to throw a tantrum” is not how I’d have thought JD would summarize high gas prices

the risk of a gas price spike due to refinery issues is behind us, Great Lakes states- wholesale prices continue to plummet in the region & stand *significantly* lower than last Thursday. let's hope there's no new issues- prices in OH, MI and WI should decline notably this week.

ELECTION DAY RECORD: with a week to go, U.S. gas prices are 42.3c/gal above 2022’s election day avg, the priciest election day at the pump ever. diesel is nearly $1/gal above 2022’s $5.33/gal. both are on track for the highest election day prices on record (not all-time highs).

gas prices fell in over half of states in the last week, while they surged in the Great Lakes, offsetting decreases, leading the national average to be the same as it was a week ago- $4.24/gal. meanwhile, diesel rose 4 cents to $6.34/gal. Brent oil prices at highest since April.

Americans have now spent $142 billion more on gasoline and diesel since March 1, enough to buy 361,000 homes at the September median price, enough to house over 900,000 people, due to the US war on Iran and other factors like limited output from Russia

according to GasBuddy data, we've seen now 76 straight days now where the national average price of gasoline has set a record for the calendar date. every day since aug 10.

gas bottomed at $2.738 on Jan 11, the lowest since Feb 2021. it peaked at $4.566 by May 6. a $1.83 swing in under 4 months, the biggest low-to-high move in a year since at least 2011.

gas >$4/gal for 168 days in 2026, old record 157. biggest monthly jump ever: +$1.13 in March (2022: 88c). Sept avg $4.33, a record (prev $3.83, 2012). $4.293 is highest ever for Oct 24. YTD avg $3.86 still trails 2022’s $4.07. highest prices ever heading into midterms.

Definitely did not get the lucky break in Chicago. But hopefully this goes down by $.60 a gallon in the next few days.

absolutely amazing opportunity to see a F1 team at work. there is so much and many people behind the custom fuels that go into these amazing technological masterpieces. just a pinch me moment up and down the chain from crude oil to fuels.

So far most Great Lakes states have avoided retail gas price surges but some a few stations here and there but nothing yet widespread. Still on the fence if we’re going to see any big moves- monitoring the situation! Wholesale prices down 35-75c/gal

Great Lakes wholesale gasoline prices are collapsing signaling perhaps that $XOM has gotten its Joliet, IL back online… will it hold back the potential hikes? Hard to know but good news that wholesale is down *sharply*

ALERT: Live data showing that #GasPrices appear to be rising to $4.69/gal in #Wisconsin today.

Retail prices held today (so far) in the Great Lakes but nervous about tomorrow- retailers are underwater. And surrounding states (Plains) will see pressure at retail as well. Average prices were playing catch up today but I’ll be watching out and posting alerts if/when.

Great Lakes refining snags are spilling over to Plains/Mid-continent states, where wholesale gasoline prices are up sharply as product can move east to the Great Lakes but now also potentially impacting retail prices soon in IA, MN, MO, OK, SD, ND, KS, NE

watching Great Lakes refined products market this morning like 🫣🫣 we could tie or exceed spring prices in states that haven’t paused taxes.

It’s STILL not over. Spot prices in Great Lakes states keep rising. for now, there’s risk of further gas price increases for Michigan, Indiana, and Wisconsin, but not as much risk for Ohio. Illinois is complicated, but Chicago suburbs at lower risk as well for the moment.

WTI crude oil on cusp of reaching $100/bbl with Brent at $112. refined product prices up, RBOB gasoline up 8c/gal while ULSD up 16c/gal. with tax suspensions now fully passed along and no longer actively contributing, we may see the gas prices climb soon.

beautiful sunrise from Chicago’s O’Hare airport

Bloomberg follows NBC’s report. @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

GasBuddy data showing sharp retail price increases for gasoline (that we alerted you to Monday) in Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Indiana and Wisconsin, and some continued intermittent supplier issues in the Plains (there’s enough fuel!) National avg $4.26/gal, diesel $6.30/gal

diesel prices nationally will not fall below $6/gal prior to the midterms, and gasoline will not fall below $4/gal prior to the midterms- both will remain elevated until there is a clear de-escalation btwn US/Iran and Ukraine/Russia

most folks (hopefully) saw this post and had at least 24 hours notice before price spikes. and let me again reiterate that retail prices do not go up as fast as wholesale- that lag is why you had warning that prices were about to jump.

wild day for gasoline markets. spot prices rose by as much as 53c/gal or fell as much as 15c/gal, all depending on what region one is in. PNW down, LA up. Gulf down, Great Lakes to Mars. all about refineries, refineries, refineries.

oil mkt summary (10/21): ULSD -16.2c to $4.76 on a stock build and heating oil reserve release. Dec WTI -67c to $97.15, Brent -3c, RBOB flat at $3.12. but a Great Lakes refinery issue sent Chicago-area wholesale gas up 30c+. subscribe for more insights on market moves

ALERT: Live data showing that #GasPrices appear to be rising to $4.99/gal in #Chicago's suburbs today.

ALERT: Live data showing that #GasPrices appear to be rising to $4.39/gal in #Wisconsin today.

and this is WITH the tax suspension- thanks to a huge jump in spot prices today with continued problems at $XOM refinery in Joliet, IL

ALERT: Live data showing that #GasPrices appear to be rising to $4.49/gal in #Ohio today.

diesel getting pulled in as well now, up over 30c/gal for the Great Lakes, but price hikes should be limited as diesel prices had remained elevated and only slowly dropping

Chicago spot gasoline up another off-the-chart 53c/gal today so far... impacts to gas prices in WI, IL, IN, MI, OH and this could pull in IA, MN, and nearby states

oh my goodness what is going on in the Great Lakes market, this train just keeps... oooof. arb is WIDE OPEN for Gulf refiners to send gasoline north into Great Lakes

there remain some hit-and-miss supplier issues in the Great Plains region, but there's plenty of gasoline and diesel- there is a ton of noise on this- but there still is nothing to panic over- plenty of fuel from refiners available. not a single dry rack.

EIA, week ending 10/16 Crude oil: -3.1M Domestic prod: 13.269MMbpd Cushing: +1.0M Gasoline: -3.0M Mogas supplied: 8.982MMbpd Distillates: +1.7M Refiner utilz: 93.4% Ref inputs: 16.860MMbpd Total exports: 10.849MMbpd #oil #eia #gas

ALERT: Live data showing that #GasPrices appear to be rising to $4.29/gal in areas of #WestVirginia today.

ALERT: Live data showing that #GasPrices appear to be rising to $3.89/gal in #SouthCarolina today.

ALERT: Live data showing that #GasPrices appear to be rising to $4.29/gal in #Kentucky today.

Looks like even KY and WV may get sucked into the refinery snags in the Great Lakes. This is rack price data from OPIS, showing wholesale gas price changes from yesterday...

US releasing 315,000 barrels of heating oil from the NE Heating Reserve. These barrels weren't sitting on "the sidelines" so they don't add new supply from the market's perspective, no impact on price. The timing is quite curious.

the refining issues in the Great Lakes will be more impactful to gasoline and should not be very impactful to diesel, sources indicating a reformer (a gasoline producing unit) is having issues.

ALERT: Live data showing that #GasPrices appear to be rising to $3.99/gal in #Indiana today.