Geopolitical updates

#Ethiopia acquired 12 Russian #Su35 fighter jets and plans to buy 4 #S400 air-defence batteries. Estimated cost: $2–3bn+. A staggering sum for a country facing conflict, widespread poverty and economic strain. Military hardware over food, healthcare and reconstruction?

#China’s #AI boom has hit a brutal reality check: the STAR 50 index plunged 40% in under four months, wiping out $480bn in market value. The message is clear: AI may transform the world, but hype, overvaluation and #investor euphoria can still end in a costly crash.

#Finland and #Norway talking directly to #Putin could reopen diplomacy and reduce tensions. But Denmark’s objections expose Europe’s dilemma: engage Moscow or risk weakening NATO unity and support for Ukraine?

#Elon wanted #India to embrace #Starlink, but Indians are pushing back as trust in the US wanes. They saw Trump cozy up to Pakistan and the US cut Starlink access for Ukraine. India is learning that control over critical infrastructure is also a matter of sovereignty.

#France’s dilemma: listen to #protesters & invest, or financial markets and cut. No balanced budget since 1974; deficit 6.9%, debt 119% of GDP, €75bn interest next year. The solution: reform taxes, pensions & subsidies. France spends 14.1% of #GDP on pensions vs under 5% in NL.

Reports of a post-midterm US-#Israeli bombing run on #Iran need scrutiny. Any talk of bunkerbuster bombs reflects a strategy to hit hardened #nuclear sites, not win a war. Airstrikes can destroy targets, but cant erase Iran’s capabilities, force it to surrender or guarantee peace.

Europe is taking to the streets. 🇪🇺 From #France and Italy to Spain, Portugal, Belgium & #Albania, protests are erupting over austerity, housing, living costs & corruption. Beneath the anger: slow growth, inflation, rising defense spending & a Gen Z gen losing hope. #Protests

Like the British, #Egypt is preparing to deploy troops to defend #Saudi Arabia for money. #Cairo faces severe economic woes, depends on Gulf cash, and owes Saudi Arabia over $5bn due this month. Houthi threats also endanger Suez Canal revenues, tourism & Saudi-based remittances.

Britain to the rescue of the #Saudi King? 🇬🇧 As Trump balks at risking the #midterms, the UK sends more jets to protect Saudi population centers. Noble defense or a calculated move to safeguard #British arms deals, energy interests, and lucrative Gulf trade? Follow the money.

Growing doubts in Europe and #Kyiv over US loyalty: Washington buys Russian diesel, cuts Ukraine’s Starlink access, delays delivery of paid Patriots, and doesn’t always warn Kyiv of #Russian attacks. America’s reliability as an ally against #Russia is increasingly in question.

#France’s recurring bouts of violence may reflect a deeper governance gap: a top-down state that often sidelines civil society. The #Dutch polder model & Nordic consensus-building take longer; Sweden’s pension reforms took yrs but broad buy-in can foster trust & stability. #Paris

ENDF’s reported retreat from Zalambessa & Rama comes as pressure mounts around #Shire. In NW #Tigray, ENDF struggles to hold under TDF pressure. With TDF & Fano cutting supply routes betw Tigray & Amhara, #ENDF faces growing logistical strain as TDF seeks to seize the initiative.

What’s worrying about the violence in #France this weekend is its multi-front nature: waves of unrest targeting gov institutions, erupting across neighbourhoods & cities. The ability to challenge state authority on multiple fronts makes this far more alarming. #Paris #Protests

Rubio’s statement on #Ethiopia and #Eritrea reveals the US position: no backing for an illegal Ethiopian invasion. With US–Eritrea talks underway, Washington eyes Eritrea’s mineral wealth and seeks to keep #Iran and the Houthis out. Eritrea’s strategic value has clearly risen.

#France’s debt crisis threatens all of Europe: rising #borrowing costs for govs, losses for banks holding French bonds, pressure on the euro & higher bailout risks for taxpayers. If markets lose faith in #Paris, defence, public services & Europe’s stability could all take a hit.

Reports suggest TDF forces are advancing toward #Mekelle from the south and west, combining hit-and-run tactics with fortified positions. Meanwhile, reports indicate some #ENDF forces are retreating from certain towns across #Tigray. The situation remains fluid.

Russia’s offer to mediate #Ethiopia–#Eritrea tensions could open a diplomatic channel. #Moscow may facilitate talks, but a lasting deal requires genuine political will from both sides. It has to tackle the core problem; Abiy’s illegal annexation plans.

#Tigrayan sources report the #TDF has recaptured Abiy Adi, Shewate Higum & Yechila. It marks a tactical counteroffensive, the restoring of local defensive positions and the disrupting of #ENDF/TPF forces. Has a new phase begun?

In the 20-22 #Tigray war, TDF also lost all major cities & faced a tougher encirclement by #Eritrea in the north & Fano/#ENDF in the south/west. It came back but Eritrea & drones were key in that war. Now Tigray is less united and Fano & Eritrea arent allied w ENDF. TDF shouldnt be underestimated.

Reports from #Tigray claim forces ambushed #Ethiopian troops and TPF militia in Kola Tembien, with another clash near #Adwa. Tigray’s guerrilla war has begun with ENDF supply lines stretched. Also an explosion reportedly targeted the UAE Embassy in Addis. Details are unverified.

#Houthi missiles hitting #Saudi airports from 500 miles show their precision. Casualties hurt #MBS after billions spent on defense. Exempting Mecca and Medina while warning airlines projects the Houthis as protectors of Islam & are Irans way of pressurizing Trump into a deal.

While Ethiopia’s fed government is at war with its own people, #Egypt is making another move: deploying elite Thunderbolt & airborne troops, mechanized infantry, armored vehicles and air assets to #Somalia. #Ethiopia risks strategic encirclement while fighting on multiple fronts

The US has documented #ENDF’s use of child soldiers, amid growing human rights concerns following a deadly strike on a secondary school in Tigray that caused casualties. Meanwhile, Ethiopian sources report an exchange of gunfire between #Ethiopian and #Eritrean forces in the Bure area.

#Abiy acts as a UAE proxy arming & training Sudan’s genocidal RSF as it devastates Sudan, while bombing #Tigray, Amhara & Oromia and threatening #Eritrea’s ports. Now, reports point to stepped-up UAE military support for Addis amid plans for a Sudan invasion.

Europe imposed sanctions to choke off Russia’s war revenues. Then #Trump buckles and cuts a deal involving millions of tonnes of Russian #diesel to curb US fuel prices. Zelensky called it “WEAK & a gift to Russia.” #Moscow gains cash, leverage and a political win.

Turkey & Egypt outmaneuvered #Ethiopia in #Somalia, where the ENDF once led. Now civil war forces its retreat. Egypt has deals w Sudan, Rwanda, Uganda, Kenya, S. Sudan, Djibouti & #Eritrea. Ethiopia’s foreign policy has left it isolated leading the US to prioritize Kenya & Egypt.

#Ethiopia’s F. Ministry seems less a strategic institution than a copy machine of Abiy’s words. Amid endless civil war, Ethiopia arms the #RSF, bombs SAF, threatens #Eritrea & Somalia w annexation, undermines Djibouti’s interests & pushes Nile dams despite Egypt’s concerns.

Prof Gebissa wouldnt be surprised if #Eritreans are ready to defend their country after Abiy’s threats. They were invited in by #Abiy & havent left. Abiy said they stayed in areas awarded to #Eritrea. Yet S. Sudan/Kenya invaded 🇪🇹 & Sudan seized alFashaga & Ethiopia never reacts.

As TDF withdraws from Tigray in a controlled manner, AFS expands in #Amhara, disrupting key highways linking North Gondar–Gondar, North Wollo–South Gondar & #Kobo–Debre Birhan. With ENDF focused on #Tigray, security gaps are allowing AFS to push into towns long held by Fed gov.

Ethiopian forces claim advances across #Tigray, including #Shire, Abi Adi & #Wukro. Opposition AFS forces also claim a strike on Bishoftu killed 3 UAE drone experts (unverified). Explosions were reported in Addis Ababa overnight and this morning.

#Eritrea’s existence is being threatened by Abiy & Eritrea’s military history matters. During the independence war, #Eritrean forces won hundreds of battles against an #Ethiopian army that vastly outnumbered & outgunned them, also w significant air power. After nearly 30 yrs of war, the EPLF won.

#Ethiopia’s coalition is reportedly hitting military airfields, killing/wounding #drone operators & trainers. It’s striking the #ENDF hasn’t closed these gaps after earlier attacks. Targeting scarce personnel disrupts the drone pipeline, while airfield strikes blunt airpower.

#Houthi attacks on #Saudi Arabia have triggered the #Mecca defense pact’s collective deterrence measures. Türkiye and Pakistan agreed to rapidly deploy forces to Saudi Arabia, while 100+ Saudi jets back Yemen’s counteroffensive, which has retaken the Bab el-Mandeb.

As TDF retreated north towards #Adigrat, TDF & Fano opened new fronts across Tigray & Amhara, including May Tsebri & #Gondar & with results. ENDF suffered heavy losses advancing towards Wukro & Hagere Selam, prompting some ENDF forces to retreat from #Mekelle.

Ethiopian forces push north along the A2 but were stopped by tdf ~40 km north of #Mekelle as #Tigrayan forces hold positions around #Wukro. Airstrikes reportedly hit Adwa hotels and an IDP camp in Shire. AFS claims major gains in Amhara and Oromia, including Cho’bi.

Heavy strikes reported in #Tigray: drone/airstrikes hit sites in #Adwa as ENDF convoys move toward #Adigrat. AFS claims heavy casualties, including 90 government troops killed in Gondar. ENDF risking overstretched supply lines and exposure to drone attacks.

Fear is growing in #Kyiv that #Russia may increasingly target civilians and civilian infrastructure. The concern follows #Ukrainian intelligence warnings of a broader Russian strike doctrine, alongside recent attacks on schools, hospitals, bridges and energy infrastructure.

Egypt’s summit w #Eritrea, #Somalia and Sudan comes as Ethiopia’s #Tigray conflict intensifies. Talks are likely to focus on the risk of a wider Ethiopia–Eritrea war, Eritrea’s role, Red Sea security, Ethiopia’s regional ambitions and the conflict’s potential spillover into Sudan

#ENDF’s advance into #Tigray is facing difficulties as the #TPLF launches counterattacks, while infighting among pro-government forces including Amhara groups and the TPF adds pressure. Biggest risk for ENDF: becoming overstretched on multiple fronts and losing momentum.

3rd U.S. #carrier headed toward Iran: USS Theodore Roosevelt, with 3 #destroyers. Its air wing includes F/A-18E/Fs, F-35Cs, EA-18Gs, E-2Ds, CMV-22Bs & MH-60s. The buildup could put 3 carriers + 2 amphibious groups near #Iran by late Nov.

#Debt keeps piling up while the #bond market is sending a louder warning. US, Japan and #France are all seeing borrowing costs surge toward multi-decade highs. Higher yields mean higher interest bills and less room for governments to maneuver. The math is getting harder.

Explosions were reported at Ethiopia’s main Air Force base in #Bishoftu and near military chief Birhanu Jula’s residence in Addis Ababa. Ethiopian forces entered #Mekelle from the Afar side, while AFS forces cut the #Sekota–Lalibela road.

In Washington, #Eritrean FM Osman Saleh met US Undersecretary for Political Affairs A. Hooker and Assistant Secretary for Africa F. Garcia. With #sanctions lifted, expect deeper talks on trade, investment and #RedSea cooperation, including mining, ports, energy and logistics.

BREAKING: Reports of #diplomats, foreign investors, tourists and business leaders leaving #Addis are emerging amid growing security concerns. Multiple envoys have sought government briefings on incidents over the past three days w questions over the lack of clear official details.

TDF may be avoiding a decisive fight for #Mekelle, preserving its forces while allowing #ENDF to advance deeper. The gamble: stretch federal supply lines into #Tigray, harass exposed rear positions and strike once ENDF is overextended turning a rapid advance into a costly trap.

#Ethiopia’s expulsion of #Eritrean diplomats, amid drone attacks on Addis and #Ethiopian Airlines avoiding Eritrean airspace, raises questions about Addis’ growing security concerns. It may also reflect the pressure to preserve Abiy’s image of stability and control to the outside.

#ENDF closing in on #Mekelle, but the advance carries serious risks. With #Tigrayan forces ahead and Fano active on other fronts, a push too far could expose ENDF to encirclement. Abiy now faces a choice: press for Mekelle or consolidate before risking a major setback.

#Egypt has declared an #Ethiopian embassy counsellor in Cairo persona non grata and given him 48 hours to leave, in a reciprocal move after #Ethiopia took the same measure against an Egyptian diplomat in Addis Ababa, according to an official Egyptian source.