Guy Yeomans

Guy Yeomans

@guyyeomans.bsky.social

Professional: Foresight & Horizon Scanning | Research: Resilience (CNI / Societal) & Comprehensive Security, Total Defence, National Preparedness | Emerging Risks & CM / EM | Military mobility | High North, GIUK-NGap & Arctic Futures | Personal: #OnXII

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Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

I am obliged to sound (a personal) #GIUK-NGap klaxon. I'm here at QRA-1 North: RAF Lossiemouth on the Moray Firth, Scotland. The homebase of the UK's P-8A Poseidon MRA1 fleet, the central airborne platform for maritime patrol capability in the Gap... #thoiranaire #atlanticbastion 1/3

Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

I am obliged to sound the #GIUK-NGap klaxon: "One possibility would be to use the drones to track Russian aircraft seeking to cross the GIUK gap into the north Atlantic, controlling them from a cockpit of a Typhoon flying over Scotland, several hundred miles away" www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026...

theguardian.com‘Autonomy, not flesh’: RAF chief outlines AI drone-powered futureAir Chief Marshal Harv Smyth says technological advances will reduce need for human involvement in warfare
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Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

UK: follow on outreach by the Defence Committee, making the assertion that "Given the direct threat to the UK from the #highnorth, there is a strong case for giving that region greater focus"... bsky.app/profile/hocc...

House of Commons Committees@hoccommittees.parliament.uk

Serious capability gaps in the UK's ability to meet growing threats in the High North top the Defence Committee's conclusions in its latest report. These must be addressed, alongside other concerns, if the UK is to deter Russia in the region ⬇️ committees.parliament.uk/committee/24...

Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

UK & #highnorth: reading through the published written evidence. This from Kennedy-Pipe, Dodds & Depledge - "...fortification of key bases such as RAF Lossiemouth, which houses the P-8 Poseidon aircraft, and A2/AD capability to defend against missiles/drone incursions from the north." #thoiranaire

Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

An interesting day yesterday taking part in the #resiliencefirst 'Not Business As Usual' strategic resilience #wargame at Sky in West London... #nationalresilience

Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

I am obliged to sound the #GIUK-NGap klaxon... From the UK Defence Committee 'Defence in the High North' report: "#47 - ...the JEF should consider specialising in what is probably its most demanding mission. This is defending the Greenland-Iceland-UK Gap & the Svalbard-Bear-Northern Norway Gap...

Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

UK: “The UK needs to be willing to address a hard truth: it does not currently have all the capabilities to operate successfully in the high north...”. And a 'rare cross-party acknowledgment' of the challenges of any US ambivalence in support... #highnorth www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

theguardian.comRoyal Navy lacks resources to counter Russian threat in high north, MPs warnCommittee cites shortfalls of submarines and warships and says ‘dramatic progress’ needed by end of decade
Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

RAF Lossiemouth & ZP804 - Spirit of Reykjavik... #thoiranaire

Flattop Fiesta@flattopfiesta.bsky.social

Despite pretty good satellite coverage I haven't spotted HMS Prince of Wales since its deployment. Social media posts have announced the ship is embarking its air wing now which would make me think this ASW plane is orbiting the carrier. Too many clouds on the Sentinel-2 to see anything though.

Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

RAF Lossiemouth & ZP806 - Guernsey's Reply... #thoiranaire

itamilradar@itamilradar.com

Another day of surveillance missions on NATO’s eastern flank, with NATO, Swedish and British assets in action. www.itamilradar.com/2026/10/21/n...

itamilradar.comNATO Expands Intelligence and Airborne Surveillance on the Alliance’s Eastern FlankToday’s flight tracking shows a coordinated pattern of intelligence-gathering and airborne command and control activity across NATO’s northern and eastern airspace. A Swedish Air Force Gulfstream S102...
Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

I am obliged to sound #GIUK-NGap klaxon... "In addition to carrying data, it could monitor ship & submarine movements through the Greenland Strait..." A potential Tasiilaq cable highlights the challenges of #highnorth connectivity infrastructure build-out & the dual-use issue...

Daily Northern@dailynorthern.com

Korda expects Iceland-Scotland cable to be ready in three years #Iceland #submarinecables #telecommunications

dailynorthern.comKorda expects Iceland-Scotland cable to be ready in three yearsKorda expects its planned submarine cable between Iceland and Scotland to enter service around the turn of 2029-30, Morgunblaðið reports. The project is estimated to cost about 10 billion Icelandic kronur, and landing points have been selected in both countries. Seabed surveys are due to begin th…
Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

I am obliged to sound #GIUK-NGap klaxon... updated UK Arctic policy framework. Three specific mentions of the Gap: 'Enhance co-operation, interoperability & interchangeability with partners' (p. 12), 'The Kingdom of Denmark' (p.18) & 'Iceland' (p.20)... #highnorth www.gov.uk/government/p...

gov.ukThe UK and the Arctic: an update to the United Kingdom’s Arctic Policy FrameworkThis document sets out the UK government's approach to the Arctic, and provides an update to the UK Arctic policy framework.
Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

Not disagreeing with Ian here, but would also highlight others in the 'rest of society', such as @lordtoby.bsky.social & the work over recent years of the National Preparedness Commission, who have been equally vocal on the need, & foundational importance of, that conversation... #nationalresilience

Ian Bond@cerianbond.bsky.social

You're right up to a point. But the debate has been led by the Chief of Defence Staff, heads of the intelligence & security agencies & Lord Robertson. There hasn't been the prime ministerial leadership a European emergency deserves, & certainly not a 'whatever it takes' order to the Treasury.

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Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

Finland: "In February, he said that keeping the icebreakers together in Helsinki meant the entire group was, in principle, “behind one Iskander missile”". New home ports for icebreakers announced: glad I got to see them together at Laivastokatu... www.dailynorthern.com/35189/finlan...

dailynorthern.comFinland moves icebreakers’ home ports to Kemi and Pori - Daily NorthernFinland’s Ministry of Transport and Communications has designated Kemi and Pori as new home ports for icebreakers, while Helsinki will remain a home port, Yle reported. The change is intended to stren...
Guy Yeomans@guyyeomans.bsky.social

Maritime capability: the icebreaker fleet in #helsinki...

Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

Here is some good additional background information from @viherdemokraatti.bsky.social... bsky.app/profile/vihe...

ekolaali@viherdemokraatti.bsky.social

Agree, they have been a traditional part of the cityscape. I guess at least some retired ships stay while part of the active #Arctia fleet are relocated to Kemi and Pori. Also, the press release says Helsinki will remain a home port for some icebreakers, so not all are gone. lvm.fi/en/-/two-new...

Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

I am obliged to sound #GIUK-NGap klaxon...

Anton Gerashchenko@antongerashchenko.bsky.social

Rutte: Don't forget, for the defense of the USA,NATO is also crucial.We defend the USA from these Russian nuclear submarines ending up at the shores of the USA We make sure that the transatlantic is safe, the Euro-Atlantic area is safe,…that Europe is safe – all in the interest of the USA.

Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

Over the summer I found a small selection of Valentine's aircraft recognition cards. Unfortunately they're not dated, but are part of 'The Proficiency Test' series. These are #33, the Focke-Wulf Condor II (troop transport), & #51 the Focke-Wulf Kurier II (long distance bomber) #battleoftheatlantic

Jamie McTrusty@jamiemctrusty.bsky.social

Following the fall of France in 1940, British shipping in came under increasing threat from Luftwaffe aircraft. The FW 200s of KG 40 were a particular concern, initially from bombing attacks but increasingly in shadowing convoys and reporting their position for U-Boats. 📷 airvectors.net 🧵1/10

Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

Prompted me to remember my visit to Liverpool last year to visit the Western Approaches HQ museum & explore the anti-submarine wargaming role of the Tactical Unit. I'd guess SC-48 would have been tracked in the main operations room... #WATU #battleoftheatlantic bsky.app/profile/guyy...

Roger Litwiller -Canadian Naval Author/Historian@rogerlitwiller.bsky.social

#OTD 15/10/1941 #RememberRCN -Battle for Convoy SC-48 begins, 9 U-boats attack 53 merchant ships escorted by HMCShips BADDECK, SHEDIAC joined by COLUMBIA, WETASKIWIN, ROSTHERN, PICTOU, HMS GLADIOLUS & FFS MINOSA. Nine merchant ships/2 escorts sunk. 5 U-boats attacked/3 damaged.

Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

"...the fundamental problem, which is that the resources aren’t there, the collective understanding & threat perception in the population are not there, the readiness in the corporate world to embed all of these assumptions into its planning is not there..." #wholeofsociety #nationalresilience

Deep Baltic@deepbaltic.bsky.social

In his book Baltic: The Future of Europe, Oliver Moody makes the case that the innovation and resilience displayed by the countries bordering the Baltic Sea have a lot to teach those of us further west deepbaltic.com/2026/10/14/t...

deepbaltic.comThe Future of Europe? Oliver Moody on the Baltic and Beyond“Inasmuch as we have a standardised grand unifying theory of what it is that the Putin regime wants to do to the NATO countries, that is the thing that they keep coming back to…”
Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

cc @puca.bsky.social

Thomas Nilsen@thomasnilsen.bsky.social

Something in the air: Three NATO surveillance aircraft on mission near Russia's Kola Peninsula. 🇬🇧 RC-135W Rivet Joint and 🇸🇪 Gulfstream Korpen signal intelligence aircraft over 🇫🇮Lapland, and a 🇬🇧 P-8 Poseidon north of 🇳🇴 on mission east towards 🇷🇺 sector of the Barents Sea. Burevestnik-event day?

Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

I am obliged to sound (a ludic) #GIUK-NGap klaxon... Operation Northern Sentinel - maritime surveillance & sea control! #highnorth

fight-club-intl.bsky.social@fight-club-intl.bsky.social

Ready to defend the Greenland–Iceland–UK Gap? Dispatch your air, surface and subsurface forces to intercept an unknown naval flotilla in the icy North Atlantic. Sign up on the FCI site (membership required): www.fightclubinternational.org/campaigns/op...

Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

Nordics: "Together, these projects illustrate a change in NATO’s northern geography. Reinforcement depends on the capacity to unload a ship, assemble a unit, carry heavy vehicles across bridges & move freight through rail junctions already serving civilian economies" #eastofnarvik #militarymobility

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Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

Further Wedgetail arrival for RAF Lossiemouth: WT002 has now arrived for ground & flight evaluation... h/t @flightaceshigh.bsky.social #GIUK-NGap #thoiranaire www.adsadvance.co.uk/raf-boeing-e...

adsadvance.co.ukRAF's E-7 Wedgetail advances with two aircraft in testingTwo RAF E-7 Wedgetails have now flown simultaneously as the programme moves towards entry into service later this year.
Guy Yeomans@guyyeomans.bsky.social

Yes, that is the E-7 Wedgetail AEW MK1 (#01) on the tarmac... #GIUK-NGap #thoiranaire

Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

2 months since I at RAF Lossiemouth looking at the P-8A Poseidons & doing an impromptu plot towards Zapadnaya Litsa: this analysis assesses the current Northern Fleet Yasen's... #thoiranaire h/t @electra1970.eurosky.social & @vesselspotter.eurosky.social www.naval-review.com/news-views/r...

naval-review.comRussian Navy Submarine Force in 2026 - The Naval ReviewIndependent open-source research. The assessments and conclusions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not represent any government,
Guy Yeomans@guyyeomans.bsky.social

Plot #1: facing North-East at 039 degrees. Direction to Zapadnaya Litsa in Murmansk Oblast, home base to the Northern Fleet's Yasen class SSBN submarines. Distance approximately 1,300 miles... 4/6

Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

UK: "The Ministry of Defence should, meanwhile, develop & publish a methodology for assessing physical hostile activity directed at UK people, businesses, infrastructure & interests, the report recommended..." #nationalresilience #civildefence

Financial Times@financialtimes.com

Russian hostile activity costs UK up to £2.5bn a year, report warns ft.trib.al/QU5CTWk

ft.trib.alRussian hostile activity costs UK up to £2.5bn a year, report warnsLabour MP Graeme Downie’s research highlights lack of consistent framework for measuring economic impact of Moscow-backed hybrid warfare
Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

And here's a supporting thread from the author - @graemedowniemp.bsky.social - with a link to the report... #nationalresilience #civildefence bsky.app/profile/grae...

Graeme Downie MP@graemedowniemp.bsky.social

The purpose of this report is not simply to produce a headline figure. If hostile states are costing the British economy, those costs should be measured. If billions of pounds are being lost or diverted every year, Parliament and the public deserve to know.

Guy Yeomans
@guyyeomans.bsky.social

I am obliged to sound the #GIUK-NGap klaxon... "The Cold War-era emphasis on defending the Northern Gap (between Greenland, Iceland, & the UK) from Russian naval incursions should be superseded by concentrating on the ‘Bear Gap’ between Northern Norway & the Svalbard archipelago..." #highnorth

H I Sutton@covertshores.bsky.social

New article with Council on Geostrategy: Towards a JEF naval ecosystem: A blueprint for British leadership in the High North Byline currently only has my name but coauthors are Dr Marc Devore and @r-p-one.bsky.social - should be fixed soon www.britainsworld.org.uk/p/the-memora...

britainsworld.org.ukTowards a JEF naval ecosystem: A blueprint for British leadership in the High NorthThe Memorandum | No. 48.2026