John Horvick

Share of votes for Democratic (left) and Republican* (right) gubernatorial candidates among counties won by Tina Kotek: 1930 to 2022 *1930 treats independent candidate and election winner Julius Mieler as a Republican

Turnout by county in Oregon's 2026 midterm as of October 26 (8 days prior to the election)

Democratic and Republican ballot share for each day in Oregon. Oct 16: Dem 64%, Rep 17% (D +47) Oct 19: Dem 48%, Rep 31% (D +17) Oct 20: Dem 52%, Rep 26% (D +26) Oct 21: Dem 53%, Rep 25% (D +28) Oct 22: Dem 48%, Rep 29% (D +19) Oct 23: Dem 41%, Rep 33% (D +8)

Oregon turnout by party in midterm general elections: 1966 to 2022

Oregon turnout in midterm general elections of registered and eligible voters: 1966 to 2022

The final October consumer sentiment numbers are out from the University of Michigan. Here are the changes by party. Dem 36.6 (+1.0) Ind 42.4 (-5.3) Rep 83.0 (+5.8)

The age composition of Oregon's electorate from 2018 to 2026. The projected ballots for 2026 assume that turnout by age is the average of 2018 and 2022.

Winning vote share in Oregon gubernatorial elections

Democratic gubernatorial vote in Oregon counties: 1930 - 2022

Number of Oregon governor polls after the primary elections in 2022 vs. 2026. 2022: at least 15 2026: just 5 so far

The 20 Oregon cities with the most registered Republicans

They are a significant minority, but there are some registered Republicans and Republican voters in Portland. Current registered Republicans: ~32,300 2022 Drazan votes: ~46,300 2024 Trump votes: ~42,700

In the Oregon 2022 general election, this is how the total number of registered voters compared to ballots cast by age and party.

The top issues for Oregon voters in the 2026 election have changed since 2022. In 2022, crime was much more salient. Here are the total number of reported crimes in Oregon from 2020 to 2026, which helps explain why.

National turnout by age in midterm elections: 1966 to 2022

History of Oregon gubernatorial election results by county.

Nonaffiliated voters are growing in Oregon, but most voters are still Democrats or Republicans. These maps show the change in Democratic registration advantage among Ds and Rs, by county, 2022 general to October 2026, in percentage points (left) and voters (right).

Party registration share for Oregon's 60 House of Representatives districts.

8.2 points would be the largest margin since 1998 and the third largest margin since the Democratic streak started in 1986. 2022 +3.4 2018 +6.4 2016 +7.2 2014 +5.8 2010 +1.5 2006 +8.0 2002 +2.9 1998 +34.4 1994 +8.5 1990 +5.8 1986 +4.0

Updated Oregon voter registration numbers are out today. Here are the monthly changes. Total +15,312 Democrat +7,241 Non-affiliated +2,840 Republican +2,786 Ind. Party of Oregon +1,588 Other +857

Gallup has a monthly tracker that asks Americans to name the most important problem facing the country. Americans are now mentioning problems with government as often as the economy.

Comparing Oregon governor and presidential elections to Washington and California. These are 2-party vote margins for on-cycle elections from 2000-2024. Median Dem margins for these elections: Governor OR +5 WA +9 CA +16 President OR +13 WA +18 CA +24

Oregon party registration by vote frequency. The Democratic advantage is greatest among the most consistent voters.

Current account balances for Oregon gubernatorial candidates. Tina Kotek: $8.4 million Christine Drazan: $780k

Yesterday, the Oregon Department of Education released the updated number of teacher FTE. Here are the total teacher FTE and the number of students per teacher from 2004 to 2026.