Ian Mitchell

As traditional donors scale back, what role should #China play in the multilateral system? 🌏 At the #WBGMeetings, Beata Cichocka joined Hannah Ryder, Yu Ye, and @ianmitchell1.bsky.social to discuss China's evolving role in development finance. 🎥 Watch the full recording: go.cgdev.org/4hMUfCC

go.cgdev.orgWill El Niño Mean Another Global Food Price Spike?There are concerns that this year's El Niño--set to be the largest in living memory--could add another source of pressure on global food markets, alongside volatile global oil and fertilizer prices as a result of conflict in the Middle East, and renewed...

We think panic from policymakers is a bigger risk than El Niño itself. Includes new analysis of past very strong El Niños which can have big national impacts but historically not global ones

Center for Global Development@cgdev.org

Could a record-breaking El Niño trigger another global food price spike? Grain stocks remain relatively high, providing a buffer against supply shocks. But disruptions to Black Sea exports could leave markets less resilient. Brendan Bayley & @ianmitchell1.bsky.social explore: go.cgdev.org/4AM73SG

Ian Mitchell reposted

1 Sept

What will a new UK government mean for the future of international development? H.E. Macenje Mazoka, Flora Alexander, and Liz Ditchburn join CGD’s @ianmitchell1.bsky.social to discuss UK aid cuts, shifting priorities, and what comes next under Prime Minister Andy Burnham. go.cgdev.org/4qQZSEf

16 July

The UK has just published the brutal cuts it will make to country spending plans. In 10 of 17 African partners spend is being cut to a de minimis level. They are home to over 130m people in extreme poverty. The UK is giving up meaningful influence and heading for an all-time low in overseas aid.

Ian Mitchell reposted

Lee Crawfurd

@leecrawfurd.bsky.social

16 July

The UK gov wants asylum seekers to repay £10k of their accommodation costs. We ran the numbers, gov could raise 3.5x more in tax & lower support costs by asking asylum seekers to work instead (with @helen-dempster.bsky.social & @ianmitchell1.bsky.social) cgdev.org/blog/asking-...

go.cgdev.orgCommitment to Development Index 2025With levels of development finance falling, it is more important than ever to look beyond aid. The Commitment to Development Index (CDI) does just that—ranking the world’s most powerful countries on p...

20 Nov 2025

How does your country rank on its effort on international development? For over 20 years, we assessed policies. This edition sees an unprecedented drop in efforts, with 24 of 38 countries regressing. But there are neglected areas beyond aid - policymakers and advocates should think more broadly.

Center for Global Development@cgdev.org

As aid budgets decline, the ways rich countries are driving development are more important than ever. 🌟NEW: @cgdev.org’s Commitment to Development Index ranks the world’s richest nations, spotlighting impacts on the poorest & where nations can step up ⬇️🧵#CDI2025 go.cgdev.org/49ZJoD5

centerforglobaldevelopment.applytojob.comResearch Assistant - UK and Development - Center for Global Development - Career PageApply to Research Assistant - UK and Development at Center for Global Development in London, London, United Kingdom.

17 July 2025

We're hiring! We're after a recent graduate with quant and comms skills to work with me on ideas for the UK's development policy; and on benchmarking development performance. You need to have the right to work in the UK Full details here: centerforglobaldevelopment.applytojob.com/apply/gIODpv...

17 July 2025

New survey: Brits think that the UK's new aid budget is too low. One of many interesting findings in the BFPG survey.

This post is unavailable.

cgdev.orgHow the UK Should Focus Its Aid in 2026: Three Tests to Help Ministers Deliver on Commitments and Maximise ImpactThe FCDO must cut nearly £3 billion from its aid budget by 2027. Ian Mitchell and Sam Hughes set out three tests to protect impact.

15 July 2025

The UK Government needs to cut £3bn from its aid budget. But can it also fulfill commitments on greater multilateralism, targeting poverty, and ensuring impact? @samhugh3s.bsky.social and I set three tests on aid allocation that would signify the 'change' promised. www.cgdev.org/blog/how-uk-...

Ian Mitchell reposted

Charles Kenny

@charlesjkenny.bsky.social

2 Apr 2025

Very rough and ready estimate of the most affected countries by the new tariffs, apologies for errors. Sources in thread. Cambodia, Vietnam, Nicaragua Guyana all *highly* dependent on exports to US (= to 25%+ GNI), facing tariffs 18-38%.

Ian Mitchell reposted

Charles Kenny

@charlesjkenny.bsky.social

New blog by @justsand.bsky.social and me on USAID cuts by country and updated (again) sectoral cuts based on the list that went to Congress today. Ukraine $1.4bn cut. Ethiopia, the DRC, Colombia, South Africa, Palestine, Bangladesh, Kenya, Afghanistan, and Tanzania >$200m

Ian Mitchell reposted

Justin Sandefur

@justsand.bsky.social

27 Mar 2025

Make America Great Again by slashing basic health services in the Congo. Hopefully Congress doesn't take these numbers as given.

Charles Kenny@charlesjkenny.bsky.social

Today's spring statement quietly revealed that the vast majority of the aid cut the PM announced for 2027 will actually happen in 2026. In fact, 2026/27 will see a 27% cut. That is steeper than the Boris Johnson aid cut in 2021. A short thread on the figures:

4. The Government is presumably hoping that savings in around £3bn of refugee costs will reduce the size of these impacts - but there's no specific commitment to get them down. Perhaps that will come in the spending review.

5. Overall, these are a brutal set of spending plans for aid with the vast majority of the cuts happening a year earlier than expected.

2. Between 25/26 and 26/27 the aid budget will fall by around £3.7bn, which is 27%. This is extremely steep for any area of public spend. Boris Johnson's cut in 2021 was £3.1bn, which was a 21% reduction.

3. The Govt has also confirmed it will no longer adjust th aid budget based on GNI - So, if GDP/ national income rises more quickly than expected, the aid budget will not; and if it falls then the aid budget will stay flat. Some stability at least.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies

1. Almost three quarters of the cuts will happen in 26/27. The spring statement confirmed aid cuts of - £0.5bn in 2025/26 - £4.8bn in 2026/27 - £6.5bn in 2027/28 This is relative to what aid would have been; and so most (74%) will have taken effect in 2026.

Ian Mitchell reposted

@theifs.bsky.social

20 Mar 2025

We are delighted to announce that @helenmiller.bsky.social has been appointed as the next IFS Director, following on from @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social in July 2025. Find out more:

ifs.org.ukHelen Miller appointed as new Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies | Institute for Fiscal StudiesThe Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) is delighted to announce that Helen Miller has been appointed as its next Director.

19 Mar 2025

Fascinating this - do Chinese contractors delivering World Bank projects achieve worse outcomes than others? Answer: no. [US and UK contractors also perform around the average but Australian and French ones do less well]

Charles Kenny@charlesjkenny.bsky.social

Paper (with Zack Gehan & Songtao Duan) and blog on Chinese Contractors & Development Project Quality. We take World Bank data on contractors working on projects and match it to project outcome data. Graph below: country of main contract supplier versus project outcome rating.

New @cgdev.org blog from me on the UK aid cut in 2027 as HM Treasury finalise budgets. Just three points: 1) Many are saying the cut needs a 'glidepath'. But this is misleading - glidepaths are supposed to soften cuts. But in this case, it just means making cuts a year sooner.

3) The UK's commitment to the World Bank last November wasn't historically generous and should remain a priority. Even as a share of the reduced aid budget in 2027, it's still under 8% of ODA, in line with previous shares

cgdev.orgWhy a Cliff Edge Is Better than a Glide Path for the UK’s Aid CutWould a steep cut to the UK’s aid budget in 2027, rather than a gradual reduction, better preserve flexibility, protect international commitments, and minimise project disruptions?

The Prime Minister told Parliament the aid cut was in 2027. If he meant 2026, he should have said so. Defence spend needs to increase; but not at the expense of the UK's international credibility. Full blog here: www.cgdev.org/blog/why-cli...

2) These are extremely steep cuts of ~34% by 2027. Trying to do 15-20% in a year is even more challenging. During austerity, the largest annual resource budget cut was under 10%.

cgdev.orgDear Secretary Rubio: You Are Right, Foreign Assistance Works. Please Resume It.Dear Secretary Rubio: There have been few more eloquent advocates for foreign assistance than you. And I believe the case you make for US aid is backed up by considerable empirical evidence. As you ha...

3 Mar 2025

Incredibly clear thread on the US cuts, and the responsibility Secretary Rubio bears for them

Charles Kenny@charlesjkenny.bsky.social

The resulting death toll is an outcome that Secretary Rubio, with his considerable understanding of the power of US foreign assistance to save lives, will have understood was an inevitable result of the pause, failed waivers, and contract terminations. www.cgdev.org/blog/dear-se...

28 Feb 2025

At last some courage and leadership from someone in Labour on international development A mid-sized economic power like the UK cannot spend just 0.3% of income on international issues.

Sam Freedman@samfr.bsky.social

This is the key paragraph of Dodds' resgination letter:

theguardian.comKeir Starmer to carry out largest cut to UK overseas aid in historyNGOs accuse prime minister of following US by accepting ‘false choice’ of cutting aid to fund defence

28 Feb 2025

"Sir Keir Starmer is to take UK overseas aid to its lowest level as a percentage of national income since records began" Great to see the @theguardian.com lead with our @cgdev.org analysis. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Even the PM instinctively understands that aid should be spent overseas - his official statement on the cut refers to "Overseas Development Assistance' (usually "Official" Devt Assistance). Let's hope he stops counting the £4-5bn spent in the UK as aid. www.gov.uk/government/n...

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer just cut the UK aid budget from 0.5% of GNI to 0.3% in 2027 to fund increases in defence spending. He says he’s making tough choices, but cutting funding for the world’s poorest people is the easiest—and cruellest—choice he could make (1/4)

Just months ago, at the UN and in his manifesto, Starmer promised to restore Britain’s global leadership on international development. Instead, he’s pushing through a 40% cut, taking the aid budget to its lowest level in over 25 years (3/4)

At the very least, he must guarantee that every penny of this reduced aid budget is actually spent overseas--not on admin costs or refugee hotels in the UK (4/4)

In the face of Russia’s aggression, history will remember that the UK’s response was to slash its already diminished aid budget. Is that the legacy this Labour government want? (2/4)

Ian Mitchell reposted

cgdev.orgWhich Countries Are Most Exposed to US Aid Cuts; And What Other Providers Can DoWhile it is still unclear how long the current freeze on US foreign aid will last, and when and where it might resume, it seems the US, under the second Trump administration, may be ready to abandon i...

11 Feb 2025

NEW: @ianmitchell1.bsky.social & @samhugh3s.bsky.social find a 1 year US aid freeze could trigger an economic shock of 1% of GNI in 23 economies—with 8 countries, incl. South Sudan, Somalia & Ethiopia, facing a devastating 3%+ hit. Which other countries could step up? www.cgdev.org/blog/which-c...

20 years ago this week Nelson Mandela told a UK audience that poverty was man-made and could be eradicated. Most think aid should tackle poverty - but with the US stepping back - is the UK actually focussed on that goal? Does it still care? A 5-point thread on our new @cgdev.org blog & analysis:

5. But with the US stepping back; the poorest countries now face enormous challenges. We argue >50% of the aid should go to Africa in 2025; and something more in line with the 70% of extreme poor that live there over the spending review. And the UK must stop spending its aid in the UK.

cgdev.orgMandela Told the UK That People Could Eradicate Poverty—but Only if They Target It.In this blog, we look at the UK’s recent patterns in aid allocation. We find that UK aid has drifted away from those countries where extreme poverty is concentrated. The UK’s bilateral aid to Africa h...

6. Link to the blog here with great analysis from @samhugh3s.bsky.social www.cgdev.org/blog/mandela...

3. What's more, the UK's country programmes have become too small to achieve real change. The UK's largest programmes are one-fifth the size of Germany's.

4. The new Labour Government has a mission 'to create a world free from poverty on a liveable planet' Minister Anneliese Dodds confirmed aid allocations for 2024-25 yesterday and - for the first time - these show some progress in re-focussing aid in the poorest places.

1. Two thirds of those in extreme poverty live in Africa. But the UK's aid budget is no longer focussed there. The aid budget has suffered a 14% cut - but Africa's budget has been cut by 65%.

@terencewoodnz.bsky.social

2. It isn't just Africa - the UK's aid budget (even the part spent abroad) is much-less focussed on the poorest countries. Under half went to the Least Developed Countries in 2023 - its lowest level in 15 years

Ian Mitchell reposted

Michael Clemens

@mclem.org

4 Feb 2025

Here is United States law regarding the President's attempts to close our development assistance agency in secret over the weekend. It is illegal. No ambiguity. Americans decide with their actions, today, if the US is a country of laws or—something else. —> crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/...

Ian Mitchell reposted

CSAE

@oxfordcsae.bsky.social

4 Feb 2025

The closing panel at #OxCSAE2025 will be 'Evidence-based Policy: Towards an Improved Research-policy Equilibrium in Africa' 🗣️@scepticalranil.bsky.social, Nompumelelo Nyathi-Mohohlwane, Miriam Laker, Justice Tei Mensah, @olihanney.bsky.social Find out more cvent.me/vbN029 Register cvent.me/grRQBN

Ian Mitchell reposted

Terence Wood

3 Feb 2025

The world's wealthiest man harming the world's poorest people. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

theguardian.comSenior USAid officials put on leave after denying access to Musk’s Doge teamAfter standoff, Doge members gained control over access system, letting them lock out workers and read emails

1 Feb 2025

Rumours that USAID is being eliminated or integrated. Having the State Department or Ministry of Foreign affairs be responsible for aid is what small counties do, not global superpowers.

cgdev.orgChanging Course to a Good-Faith Aid Review: How Four Principles Could Advance the American Interest and Save LivesMaking the case for how to conduct a good-faith, smart aid review in service of the administration’s goals and the American people.

30 Jan 2025

Very good piece this from Rachel with practical suggestions for a smart US aid review on advancing American interests.

Rachel Bonnifield@rachelbonnifield.bsky.social

The last week has been v bad for US foreign assistance -- and that's bad for America. But there's still time for Secretary Rubio--who has a track record of supporting smart aid--to avert looming disaster and enact a *real* (and needed!) review and reform. Here's how: www.cgdev.org/blog/changin...

Ian Mitchell reposted