Ian Welsh

Actually, while i don't think there should be zero police, getting rid of 3/4 of them, and 3/4 of US prisons seems entirely reasonable to me given America's ungodly high incarceration rates. www.ianwelsh.net/defund-the-p...

Ian Welsh: America’s Losing the AI Race Hard @ianwelsh.bsky.social www.ianwelsh.net/americas-los...

Everybody has a plan until some billionaires are about to become millionaires. - Rudy H. Tyson

I remind you that for most of history, including the parts that worked best in the West, civil servants were considered superior people to businessmen because we didn't exalt greed, but did exalt public service.

There's a pretty close to exact correlation between lower productivity and lower corporate taxes in Germany. www.ianwelsh.net/germany-want...

I've written a post with twenty-one facts about the Iran war, trying to summarize the entire mess. One important point, Iran CAN render Israel uninhabitable any time it chooses. www.ianwelsh.net/twenty-one-s...

Every girl and young woman should take at least a year of Brazilian Ju Jitsu. It's useless in a street or bar fight, but no other martial art teaches you how to avoid rape better.

The End of the Game by @thomasneuburger.bsky.social h/t @ianwelsh.bsky.social neuburger.substack.com/p/the-end-of...

Robots are going to change martial arts, because they will allow full force training against things like joints, necks and genitals. You'll actually be able to train the most dangerous techniques safely.

Every day I get up, check the Iranian American war news and conclude that American elites are not only stupider than I imagine, but stupider than I can imagine.

If you do not want your writing to be seen as AI, whether it is or not, do not use this format: "This isn't bluffing; it's doctrine." Normal people almost never write like this. (Though I suppose people will start copying AI even when not using it, alas.)

There is no fertility crisis. Humanity is in population overshoot (that's what so many species going extinct tells you, tards.) Fertility dropping is good, and a smaller population will lead to higher standards of living. Ignore the natalists. They're morons.

Never thought I'd be rooting for an Islamic theocracy to win, writing that Ansar Allah is the most moral government in the world, and seeing Spain and Ireland being the only ethical nations in the entire Western world.

Prices for a lot of things are going to rise significantly soon, and in many cases there will be shortages or zero supply entirely. If you can, stock up now and check your power situation: is your country going to keep the grid functional? www.ianwelsh.net/personal-con...

Reminder, this is the biggest geopol even of any of our lives. The Iran war is the end of the Global American Empire, it'll still be a regional great power for a while, but the Empire is dying as you watch.

Best thing I ever read about what a good economy is, is that it's when you can start a cat cafe with a bookshop and it's viable.

Ehrlich just underestimate how long a system can stay in overshoot before it crashes out. The ecological version of "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." The hate for him from tech bros is over-wrought. Climate change and ecological collapse exist.

What's the best type of beer to cook a pork stew or pot roast in?

As much as I like Cyberpunk (played the original Cyberpunk 2020 when it came out) I've always thought that Shadowrun was a better game with better world building, at least while the original FASA still owned it.

My big analytical mistake of the last few years was that I thought the Resistance would stop the Gaza genocide. I was right that Iran + everyone else was strong enough, what I didn't realize is that Iran wouldn't fight to stop a genocide. It would only fight to save itself.

Ian Welsh My friends, be of moderate cheer. As Will Schryer has said, America has a one shot military, and this is the shot. They're losing. This is the last major war of the American Empire. They'll try and retain hegemony in the Americas, but the global empire is over.

It's not WWIII. The requirement for WWIII is that China or Russia face off directly against America. Now that could happen yet if Israel or the US is stupid enough to nuke Iran but it hasn't happened yet.

Being accused to anti-semitism doesn't make you good, but if you haven't been accused of anti-semitism you're definitely bad.

Making a post free on substack requires the reader to download the app and read there. For web-readers who prefer a computer and don't use a netbook with android, this is a big ask & I've never once done it. Just a word to substack writers.

With the way Iran is smashing all the worst regimes in the world, doom scrolling has turned into joy scrolling.

The only moral way to judge people is on their actions. Group membership, clothes, religion should all mean nothing. If you rape, torture, commit genocide or support those who do you're evil and should have all power taken from you. It's that simple.

The EU has the spine of a jellyfish and the survival instincts of a lemming.

My position on genocide: Genocide is the worst crime in existence. If you support it you're filth. If you helped it materially, prison is the least you deserve. Personally I think you should be hanged from the neck like Nazis at Nuremberg. If you think this is too much, you're the problem, not me