Isabelle Guinaudeau

💫 New paper! @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social, @theresmatthiess.bsky.social & I are happy to see our new paper published in open access with the @ejprjournal.bsky.social Do group-targeted campaign pledges pay off electorally? We test this with a preregistered survey experiment in Germany.

Why? We find little evidence of a strong ingroup bonus. Instead, support drops among outgroups: voters who are not part of the targeted group, do not identify with it, or see it as less deserving.

💫 New paper! @elisadeisshelbig.bsky.social, @theresmatthiess.bsky.social & I are happy to see our new paper published in open access with the @ejprjournal.bsky.social Do group-targeted campaign pledges pay off electorally? We test this with a preregistered survey experiment in Germany.

Parties increasingly promise benefits to specific groups, (parents, pensioners, rural residents...) This may make promised benefits more visible, concrete and personally relevant – and thus mobilize beneficiaries more effectively.

Can France still be governed under its current electoral system? After almost two years of parliamentary fragmentation, the situation remains unsettled: huge frustration, no stable majority and a presidential election already casting its polarising shadow over parliamentary life.

The main obstacles are thus political: sticky prejudices about proportional representation, self-preserving reflexes among politicians elected under current rules, and the short-sighted belief that the majoritarian system might eventually deliver an absolute majority to one’s own camp.

Can France still be governed under its current electoral system? After almost two years of parliamentary fragmentation, the situation remains unsettled: huge frustration, no stable majority and a presidential election already casting its polarising shadow over parliamentary life.

A proportional system would not magically create a culture of compromise. But it would reduce our current reliance on barrage voting, clarify electoral outcomes and help making governments more broadly representative – and therefore more legitimate and able to govern.

Can France still be governed under its current electoral system? After almost two years of parliamentary fragmentation, the situation remains unsettled: huge frustration, no stable majority and a presidential election already casting its polarising shadow over parliamentary life.

… yet the system no longer reliably delivers what was supposed to justify these costs: stable majorities, clear mandates, and effective government. Governments are increasingly unstable and incapable of governing.

Can France still be governed under its current electoral system? After almost two years of parliamentary fragmentation, the situation remains unsettled: huge frustration, no stable majority and a presidential election already casting its polarising shadow over parliamentary life.

In other words, the proposal seeks to preserve territorial representation while introducing an ambitious compensatory logic.

Can France still be governed under its current electoral system? After almost two years of parliamentary fragmentation, the situation remains unsettled: huge frustration, no stable majority and a presidential election already casting its polarising shadow over parliamentary life.

What struck me most was that the debate has moved forward: proportional representation is no longer discussed as a mere abstract or value-based choice. The debate has become more precise: which electoral system could help France move out of the current crisis?

Can France still be governed under its current electoral system? After almost two years of parliamentary fragmentation, the situation remains unsettled: huge frustration, no stable majority and a presidential election already casting its polarising shadow over parliamentary life.

This is politically dangerous. The more voters feel that their strategic mobilisation is misread, the greater the risk that they end up abstaining or refusing to contribute to the “barrage” next time. The far right may then not even need to convince a majority.

Can France still be governed under its current electoral system? After almost two years of parliamentary fragmentation, the situation remains unsettled: huge frustration, no stable majority and a presidential election already casting its polarising shadow over parliamentary life.

The perspective of 2027 makes this pressing. If the far right is once again in a position to win many 2nd-round contests, preventing the majoritarian system from amplifying its support will rely on “barrage” voting: voters mobilising not for their preferred candidate, but against RN.

Can France still be governed under its current electoral system? After almost two years of parliamentary fragmentation, the situation remains unsettled: huge frustration, no stable majority and a presidential election already casting its polarising shadow over parliamentary life.

The 2026 budget, in particular, could only be adopted through the use of Article 49.3, a constitutional device that allows the government to pass a bill unless a no-confidence motion succeeds, i.e. without a vote.

Can France still be governed under its current electoral system? After almost two years of parliamentary fragmentation, the situation remains unsettled: huge frustration, no stable majority and a presidential election already casting its polarising shadow over parliamentary life.