Pete McVries | OSINT

Pete McVries | OSINT

@indica.osintnet.uk

🌐 OSINT · Geopolitics · Tech · Finance Independent media. No billionaires. No bullshit. 🇺🇦 Слава Україні! 🇺🇦 </> https://github.com/indicaindependent 💸 https://u24.gov.ua/donate/defense

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Projection — my analysis, not reporting: US strikes Iran before year-end 2026 — MED Hormuz ship attacks stay at record highs through Q1 2027 — HIGH Iran targets Gulf oil facilities if US strikes proceed — HIGH Talks won't outpace torpedoes.

Mecca pact talks • Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan held talks in Iran for peace • Egypt approved military support for Saudi Arabia after Houthi attacks • All four agreed to continue talks A pact with Iran is not a pact against Iran. #Hormuz

Trump on Iran strike • CENTCOM has strike plans, approval unclear • Iran threatened Gulf oil and AI facilities if attacks resume Gulf infrastructure is Tehran's last leverage.

What it changes • EU seeks seat as Ukraine pushes for European role • UK and France run joint exercises, signaling Western commitment • Russian strikes hit Epicentr K, civilian retail chain The agenda is set by artillery, not diplomats.

Projection — my analysis, not reporting: NATO rollback demand stalls talks through winter 2026 — HIGH Martial law renewed past January 29 — HIGH Oleshky truce collapses before any framework — MED Dismantling NATO's eastern flank is not an opening bid — it is an exit ramp.

Oleshky truce, Kyiv strikes • Russia hit Kyiv hours before truce set to begin • Shelling intensified across Ukraine, hitting Epicentr K A truce in one town while the capital burns.

Martial law extended • Ukraine extended martial law and mobilization to Jan 29 • Russia conducting hybrid attacks across Europe • Ukraine seeks earlier talks with Russia, EU role Kyiv braces for longer war as Moscow opens new fronts.

Russia's NATO demand • Russia to demand NATO reduction in Europe at peace talks • Moscow may seek NATO rollback to 1997 in Ukraine talks • Trilateral Russia-Ukraine-US talks to resume Undoing 25 years of expansion dressed as peace. #SlavaUkraini

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Flock Safety's reach • Flock Safety works with local law enforcement and city governments across the United States • The suit claims ALPR use and out-of-state sharing violate California privacy and search protections One vendor. Every plate. A city pays.

Projection — my analysis, not reporting: • Other California cities face similar ALPR suits — HIGH • Cities pause out-of-state data sharing pending review — MED • Flock contracts survive; deletion demands take years — MED Watch the next suit.

The data pipeline • SDPD shared ALPR data with external agencies until the state attorney general said in 2025 it violated California law • ALPRs are road cameras recording plate numbers on all vehicles in frame Records of every car, kept and shared.

RSF drones on Sudan grid • RSF drones targeted power stations across four Sudanese states • A drone attack killed more than 150 people at Abyei market Blackout by drone, market by drone.

Hebron collective punishment • Israeli forces demolishing Palestinian buildings in Hebron after West Bank attack • Displaced Palestinians face collective punishment in affected areas Two bulldozers do not make a security policy.

Gaza and West Bank • Five killed in Gaza Monday, including a 7-year-old girl • IDF said strikes targeted two Hamas commanders • Two Israeli soldiers and two gunmen died in a West Bank attack Friday A seven-year-old is not a commander. #WarHeatMap

The UK has frozen assets and imposed travel bans on 15 commanders and officials from both the RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces over sexual violence, torture and attacks on civilians during the fall of el-Fasher. It follows UK-funded reporting by the Centre for Information Resilience.

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The risk, quantified. In 2,657 matched CIEN sessions the setup holds its low 60 percent of the time against a 54 percent baseline. That is the line in the sand. Size for the setup, not the story. Free at tuck.osintnet.uk. Analysis, not financial advice. Sources Cited: Alpaca SIP

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Carrier surge, cable threats • US sent a third carrier to the region amid stalemate • IRGC claims missile capacity to hit US navy vessels • US intel warns of "advanced" plots to kill officials abroad Three carriers, zero de-escalation.

Projection — my analysis, not reporting: Third carrier fails to deter IRGC harassment — MED Cable sabotage attempted by January 2027 — LOW Watch the cable landings.

The second story • Saudi, Pakistani, Turkish officials in Tehran for talks • Houthis targeted Saudi oil sites, attacks also in Aden Three capitals, one table, every front. #Hormuz

Freight rates surge • Attacks on Hormuz shipping have driven a surge in freight rates across the route • Asian refiners are shifting to smaller tankers and buying delivered crude to absorb the cost spike The supply chain is already bending.

Zelenskyy says trilateral peace talks will restart. Russia wants to wait until after November 4, Ukraine's foreign minister says Moscow isn't ready, and the US is floating Nord Stream as a sweetener. The talks are about what Ukraine gives up.

warheatmap.appZelenskyy says trilateral peace talks will restart. Russia wants to wait until after November 4, Ukraine's foreign minister says Moscow isn't ready, and the US is floating Nord StrLive verified OSINT — updated on warheatmap.app.
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Zelenskyy says trilateral peace talks will restart. Russia wants to wait until after November 4, Ukraine's foreign minister says Moscow isn't ready, and the US is floating Nord Stream as a sweetener. The talks are about what Ukraine gives up.

warheatmap.appZelenskyy says trilateral peace talks will restart. Russia wants to wait until after November 4, Ukraine's foreign minister says Moscow isn't ready, and the US is floating Nord StrLive verified OSINT — updated on warheatmap.app.
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What it changes • Kremlin resumes three-way talks with Kyiv and Washington • Ukraine's legitimate energy strikes deepened rift with Trump • Moscow delays preliminary talks past 4 November Talks on Putin's timeline serve Putin.

Projection — my analysis, not reporting: • Oleshky truce becomes Russian goodwill cover while stalling — MED • Putin escalates against NATO by spring 2027 — HIGH • Ukraine forced into EU-not-NATO deal by mid-2027 — MED Watch November 4.

Zelenskyy says trilateral peace talks will restart. Russia wants to wait until after November 4, Ukraine's foreign minister says Moscow isn't ready, and the US is floating Nord Stream as a sweetener. The talks are about what Ukraine gives up.

warheatmap.appZelenskyy says trilateral peace talks will restart. Russia wants to wait until after November 4, Ukraine's foreign minister says Moscow isn't ready, and the US is floating Nord StrLive verified OSINT — updated on warheatmap.app.

The second story • Zelenskyy says trilateral peace talks to restart • Russia fired 1,600 bombs and 2,300 drones on Ukraine last week • Ukraine's FM says Russia not ready for serious talks Agreeing to talk is not agreeing to stop. #SlavaUkraini

Peace terms surface • US proposes reviving Nord Stream in Ukraine peace talks • Zelenskyy rejects army-size limits or neutrality A pipeline for a guarantee is a demand, not a deal.