Ireland Election Projections

Our projection on the latest @Independent_ie / @ireland_thinks poll 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats ☘️ Sinn Féin — 37 ⭐ Fine Gael — 35 🟪 Soc Dems — 22 🌹 Labour — 11 🌳 Aontú — 9 💬 Ind — 9 🟢 Ind Ireland — 7

FF-FG would be short of a majority, but Independent Ireland or Aontú would get them to the line + a few indos.

Our projection on the latest @Independent_ie / @ireland_thinks poll 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats ☘️ Sinn Féin — 37 ⭐ Fine Gael — 35 🟪 Soc Dems — 22 🌹 Labour — 11 🌳 Aontú — 9 💬 Ind — 9 🟢 Ind Ireland — 7

Our projection for the next Irish General Election from @redcresearch.bsky.social / @businesspost.bsky.social ☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats ⭐ Fine Gael — 38 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 32 🟪 Soc Dem — 23 🌹 Labour — 12 💬 Inds— 10 🌳 Aontú — 6 🟢 Ind Ireland — 6 ✊ PBP-S — 2 🌱 Green — 1

Not a huge amount of change from the last poll, but it remains poor for FF-FG. Forming a government from this mess would be very difficult. You could get there with SF+FF+Lab or FF+FG+SD but neither is a great fit.

Our projection for the next Irish General Election from @redcresearch.bsky.social / @businesspost.bsky.social ☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats ⭐ Fine Gael — 38 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 32 🟪 Soc Dem — 23 🌹 Labour — 12 💬 Inds— 10 🌳 Aontú — 6 🟢 Ind Ireland — 6 ✊ PBP-S — 2 🌱 Green — 1

Here 's the key for the map, and you can make your own projection here: Irishelections.ie/general/

We've added a new (optional) table which lets you see what would happen if Irish elections were run under different systems. Here is 2024: irishelections.ie/general/

Pure-PR is the 'fairest' but has no constituency link. It's the national results put through Sainte-Laguë, similar to the Dutch way. Independents are treated as individuals but, because the bar for a seat is so low, 12 made it despite their votes coming from 1 constituency.

We've added a new (optional) table which lets you see what would happen if Irish elections were run under different systems. Here is 2024: irishelections.ie/general/

The difference between STV & simple D'Hondt is pretty clear. This is the same first preferences in the same place, but simple D'Hondt combines all candidates of the same party and doesn't do transfers. Smaller parties struggle and bigger parties gain.

Our projection on the latest Ireland Thinks / @independent.ie poll: ☘️ Sinn Féin — 45 Seats ⭐ Fine Gael — 40 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 39 🟪 Social Democrats — 21 🌳 Aontú — 8 🟢 Independent Ireland — 8 🌹 Labour — 7 💬 Independent — 6 Make your own on: irishelections.ie/general/

This is an excellent poll for Aontú and the SDs continue to squeeze Labour, the Greens and PBP-S. The big three are still well ahead but pretty flat.

Our projection on the latest Ireland Thinks / @independent.ie polls: ⭐ Fine Gael — 42 Seats ☘️ Sinn Féin — 42 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 38 🟪 Social Democrats — 21 💬 Independent — 10 🟢 Independent Ireland — 8 🌳 Aontú — 7 🌹 Labour — 6 irishelections.ie/general/

SF and FG are very close together, FF's transfer friendliness keeps them relatively close in terms of seats. The smaller parties could suffer under these numbers but they're very close to winning some seats.

Our projection on the latest IrelandThinks poll for @independent.ie ⭐ Fine Gael — 42 Seats ☘️ Sinn Féin — 40 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 38 🟪 Soc Dem — 23 💬 Independent — 10 🟢 Ind Ireland — 8 🌹 Labour — 7 🌳 Aontú — 4 🌱 Green — 2 irishelections.ie

It's a solid poll for FG, just -1 since the election. Also decent for who are SF perfectly flat since 2024. FF down a fair whack and SD trebling their support are the most impactful changes. II and Aontú also making decent gains, Labour struggling.

Our projection on the latest IrelandThinks poll for @independent.ie ⭐ Fine Gael — 42 Seats ☘️ Sinn Féin — 40 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 38 🟪 Soc Dem — 23 💬 Independent — 10 🟢 Ind Ireland — 8 🌹 Labour — 7 🌳 Aontú — 4 🌱 Green — 2 irishelections.ie

Our projection based on the latest RedC / @businesspost.bsky.social poll ☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats ⭐ Fine Gael — 36 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 32 🟪 Social Democrats — 28 💬 Independent — 10 🌹 Labour — 7 🟢 Independent Ireland — 7 ✊ PBP-S — 5 🌳 Aontú — 4 🌱 Green — 1 irishelections.ie

We have the Soc Docs winning a few doubles, Dublin Bay North & Kildare North being particularly strong.

Our projection based on the latest RedC / @businesspost.bsky.social poll ☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats ⭐ Fine Gael — 36 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 32 🟪 Social Democrats — 28 💬 Independent — 10 🌹 Labour — 7 🟢 Independent Ireland — 7 ✊ PBP-S — 5 🌳 Aontú — 4 🌱 Green — 1 irishelections.ie

Our projection of Dublin Central (left) compared to real life (right). The system works!

The only change we made to the original setting was designating Hutch as 'Right' rather than 'Assorted.' This means he got more of Steenson's transfers than before.

Our calls of Dublin Central and Galway West as polls closed. Based on national swing, Fine Gael should take Galway West and the Social Democrats should take Dublin Central. irishelections.ie/bye-elections/

Our national swing aligns pretty closely with the only poll of the race in Dublin Central, but if we run the poll numbers in Galway West then Labour take it. The actions of former Connolly voters is key, as are the performances of Cubbard & Welby.

An IrishElections projection on the latest Ireland/Thinks Sunday Independent poll ☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 41 ⭐ Fine Gael — 36 🟪 Social Democrats — 21 🌹 Labour — 9 🟢 Independent Ireland — 8 💬 Independent — 6 🌳 Aontú — 4 ✊ PBP-S — 4 🌱 Green — 1 From irishelections.ie/general

On these numbers, FF+FG+II gets closer to a majority than a left wing alliance. But the left has nudged closer to the line in recent months. (Whether its a formal coalition or an informal agreement, the maths is the same)

Our Projection based on the latest RedC research / @businesspost.bsky.social poll: ☘️ Sinn Féin — 50 Seats ⭐ Fine Gael — 37 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 35 🟪 Social Democrats — 23 💬 Independent — 12 🌹 Labour — 9 🟢 Independent Ireland — 4 🌳 Aontú — 3 ✊ PBP-S — 1 From irishelections.ie

We've introduced an Irish Presidential Election projection! Enter your first preferences and play with their transfer freindliness to project a winner. irishelections.ie/presidential/

If you leave the Transfer Friendliness on 1x it uses the numbers from 2024 for that party (or similar independents). Dialling them up or down has a huge effect Here's Humphreys on the same first preferences but double the Transfer Friendliness: