Jack

Jack

@jackisjake.bsky.social

📍Seattle

969 followers318 following3.3K posts

One clear case of media bias against Dems has been 2022 and 2026 midterm cycle. In 2022, polls were rosier for Dems but media narrative was Dems bottom about to fall out. In 2026 polls are showing GOP bottom falling out but media narrative is like who knows if GOP keeps the house

The real October surprise is Ukraine bowing up the Russian bot farms ending right wing propaganda across all social media

More than a decade of make America great again campaign; two Trump terms with two trifectas, solid conservative court, and things have only gotten worse for everyone. Fitting end would be Texas going blue

MLC@chicyph80.bsky.social

Trafalgar with a new poll showing Talarico up by 3.5 in Texas Senate lol When Trafalgar can’t even find Paxton ahead 🤣🤣🤭🤭

Pew extremely motivated to vote is D+17 and at least in Trump years that translated into final election outcomes

Political Poll Bot@pollresults.org

Donald Trump Approval Sep 28 - Oct 4, 2026 Disapprove 68% Approve 30% Pew Research Center (A/B) 5062 A View Poll

except for the data centers, seems GOP is hell bent on destroying the domestic and international economy from tariffs to wars so I don’t even know what’s their policy platform for the midterms or even 2028

Susan Collins is out there saying she got carve outs for Maine for road salt but nobody knows or asked what’s her plan going forward for next two years. Paxton is focused on transgender ads and in Georgia cons only have some AI ads that Ossoff is so beautiful he must be doing makeup

I don’t believe in fake Trafalgar polls but ‪so many people think polarization will continue when it wasn’t even true in the 2024 presidential year ‬

We been doing several wars for fun and admittedly it’s par for the course for a GOP admin but how is Hegseth still our defense secretary is beyond me. GOP at least used to take their wars seriously

funny thingabout the polling discourse is that GOP lost big in 2006 under exact same conditions if not worse what we have right now. The only big difference is that economy was fine in 2006 unlike right now

Electorate hated Dems ending one forever war so much we elected another Republican to start a brand new one but this time with added benefits of ruining the entire world economy

No Republican either in house or senate will ever say no to Trump so if tomorrow he decides to bomb Ontario there is just no stopping him without a healthy congressional check.

Not sure if it has any implications for the general but at least the GOP base has been showing pure dislike for their incumbents across the board; something I don’t recall seeing like ever in any primary

Something people aren’t realizing yet but US congress is a dead institution and all the future president gets free rein to do whatever corruption they want; if both chambers of congress don’t flip this cycle.

House is auto flip so it won’t matter to parties but several ruby red senate seats needs to flip otherwise the message to them is simply bow down to the president and do nothing

Is it just me or ossoff is the sole major candidate actively running against tariffs and Iran war; tying both of them to current economic conditions. The job market recession, high inflation, struggling economy are direct result of these two, it’s perplexing Dems aren’t going all in on it

My two cents on MI polling miss is that states like Alaska Montana Maine Nevada are also hard to poll states. So far atlas intel and NYT have been the sole pollsters who have a better track record in polling

The only two things of note from WA primary I would say is * Dems won WA-03 outright so the variety of outlets who are still rating that seat as a tossup should finally eat the crow * WA-05 could very well be in play

Jack@jackisjake.bsky.social

Doesn’t even feel like WA primary is today and honestly I haven’t been paying that much attention to it. The only notable thing is turnout is way down from 2022 so it does look like WA gonna do its own thing like in 2024 so no need to read too much into it anymore

Doesn’t even feel like WA primary is today and honestly I haven’t been paying that much attention to it. The only notable thing is turnout is way down from 2022 so it does look like WA gonna do its own thing like in 2024 so no need to read too much into it anymore

The only clearer sign would be if Dems somehow outvote GOP in the two remaining red seats, which would bode well for Ds in the general here. After 2024 I am too skittish at drawing conclusions from it regardless

This entire admin and party turning out to be bloodthirsty who wants wars 24/7 all 365 days, D+11 seems tame to me

Scott MacFarlane@macfarlanenews.bsky.social

NEW: Emerson Polling shows Democrats with 11-point advantage on generic ballot

Randomly remembering Feb 2024 polling when Haley was winning general by like 18 points and winning Wisconsin by 15. In retrospect GOP would have been better off had Haley won the nomination. They would have solid majorities in congress and she would have governed like Trump but with competence

She would have done the Iran war but at least would have tried to manufacture consensus, her tariffs wouldn’t be haphazard. She could easily be a shoe in to win her reelection. He 2024 victory would have dwarfed Obama 2008. All to say that primary electorate don’t really make good choice sometimes

lol this is like yet another candidate who will make Michigan senate seat a nail biter in a blue wave environment

Abdul El-Sayed@abdulelsayed.bsky.social

Credible allegations of sexual assault cannot be ignored. Voters in Maine deserve a choice for US Senate that doesn’t force them to make a moral compromise between sexual violence or corporate servitude.

Bro is writing corporate servitude like he isn’t going to run to DSCC for money. Just be normie dem and don’t use dumb jargons, stay away from clear electoral loser left wing policies but that’s too much to ask for these days

A lot of election nerds on either side of the aisle completely forgot that Kamala Harris always over performed on the ballot regardless of the national environment while Vance underperformed in one single election he ran in a red state under a blue president

Republicans control everything right now and the only thing they managed to do is start new wars and pass a tax cuts for the rich. Not one single policy they passed has improved any of our lives in any meaningful way

Matthew Gertz@mattgertz.bsky.social

I guess we're really never getting the strait opened.

The side effect of GOP voters being crazy is that nearly all national attention will go to the Texas race and Iowa Ohio Alaska will go heavy under the radar

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Dems gonna win even Texas railroad statewide races. In a difficult midterm, perceived moderates of the party should hang along but GOP doesn’t work that way. If you ask me, GOP will lose this midterm bad enough not seen since WWII you would think 2010 was a blue wave year in comparison

It’s so funny Trump made the house dysfunctional and as GOP senate was looking pretty decent Trump decided to nuke that chamber as well

lol, here we go *TRUMP ENDORSES PAXTON IN TEXAS GOP SENATE PRIMARY RUNOFF

You know Bannon was right and it’s probably par for the course that Trump and his orbit really wants US Congress to turn into Russian Duma

Everything aside, we have a very strong case in the making that this is a failed presidency

Poll Tracker 📊@polltracker.bsky.social

NYT/Siena poll Generic ballot Democratic 50% (+2) Republican 39% (-4) President Trump approval Disapprove 59% (+3) Approve 37% (-3) (Shift from January 2026) www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

True but this also happened for republicans who managed to elect some of the worst possible candidates. Will Indiana GOP suffer a backlash from general electorate who knows but so far the consensus has been that GOP did pay the price in several races

Denny Carter@dennycarter.bsky.social

I think what gets lost in the Platner discourse is that Democratic voters are so full of rage over the party’s reluctance to fight authoritarianism that they’re willing to overlook *a lot* to send what they perceive as fighters to centers of power. badfaithtimes.com/winning-losi...

GOP and Susan Collins will go all in on attacking Platner and honestly it’s on the folks who supported him to come to his aid

Winning that seat in Maine and flipping Iowa Ohio Texas should be the dem priority number one.

Mona Burns@monaburns.bsky.social

NEW: JMart this morning: Republicans are "quietly" working on John Fetterman to switch parties, "or at least become an Independent to ensure Republicans retain power" after the midterms "It's a scenario that’s becoming less fantastical by the day." www.politico.com/news/magazin...

If Trump retains the senate, republicans will take it as a sign off to replace remaining three justices on the court. We can talk all we want about court packing but we aren’t getting 51 senators to sign up on it any time soon

As partisan as I am, I still do not want this presidency to fail because everyone would struggle but it’s looking more and more likely that we are heading towards a generationally failure of a presidency.

We have rising costs at home and US military is in a difficult position overseas, I do not understand why the party in power doesn’t want a way out here.

One man and one party has started trade wars, wars with other countries, gerrymandering wars at home. American media which has long crowned itself as jewel of democracy cares very little for any of this

Don’t worry, it will be fixed once we build three more ballrooms

BREAKING: US national debt just exceeded 100% of GDP for the first time since 1946 (due to World War II). So what happens next? Two things: 1. Higher inflation 2 Higher interest rates $1.9 trillion deficit this year. $24 trillion in projected deficits over the next decade.

Lmao gas gonna hit $10 at this rate on the west coast I am absolutely cooked

Patrick De Haan@gasbuddyguy.bsky.social

Absolutely crazy if IL holds below $4.99- they're doing everything they can to hit that $5/gal mark in MI/IN/OH/IL/WI and they're distributing the pain across states to avoid hitting the $5 mark.

We lost ROE v Wade, voting rights act, environmental protections are all gutted, a Republican president has complete kingly immunity. I don’t even know what will happen if mail in ballots are rendered unconstitutional, that’s how I have voted all my life. Brutal consequences for losing scotus