Jasmin Mujanović

10 Nov 2024

I am going to assume that the vast majority of people following me on this app likely already know my work but on the off chance that you don’t: I write about the Balkans and international relations, democratization and authoritarianism. I try to stay in my lane beyond that. Cheers!

20h

Indeed, most regional capitals would dearly welcome a Serbia that is completely uninterested in its neighborhood.

Alexander Clarkson@aphclarkson.bsky.social

The new Serbian government will be so absorbed with reform as well as economic problems I doubt it will have much of a foreign policy at all. The main difference will be less preoccupation with looking like a grand historical player, more focus on fixing the roads

20h

If there is to be a regional 'viral' effect from Serbia's elections, it is (sadly) not likely in Bosnia's RS entity. It's Albania where PM Rama is facing off against the most protracted opposition to his own increasingly illiberal rule since coming to power in 2013.

Dejan Šoškić, the former head of Serbia's central bank, is one of the more serious candidates to be the country's new PM. He has suggested lustration, in particular of Vucic's expansive party-oligarchs, will be a priority for the/his new government.

The past forty years have shown, time and again, that Serbian nationalism, as an ideological project, has two pillars: authoritarianism at home, and expansionism abroad. Last night, the Serbian public rejected the former. No one truly expects them to reject the latter overnight.

But the new government can begin that process by revealing the true costs of the latter, first and foremost for the Serbian people themselves, and begin charting a slow, uneven course into a different future for the entire region.

Declassify the security archives; allow us to finally learn the whole truth of the Serbian state's direct involvement in the wars of the 90s; to learn whom the regime(s) of Milosevic and Vucic surveilled, harassed, and assassinated;...

...and let us finally learn the true extent the network of political and media collaborators in Serbia itself, the region, and Europe more broadly. Including the names of a few of those prominent personalities, including on this platform, who welcomed the change of government through gritted teeth.

The security archives were never opened, the regime's apparatchik class never ejected, and the intelligence, military, and police apparatus never reformed. The result was the return of the Milosevic B-team, with Vucic at its fore, barely 11 years later.

The new government in Belgrade, if it is serious about making a historic break with Vucic, and with Milosevic for the matter, must pursue a serious lustration policy.

That term, lustration, is central to what did not happen in Serbia the last time the country swept away a strong man leader, Slobodan Milosevic.

odgovor.baSerbia’s Democratic ExampleThe results of the parliamentary elections in Serbia are a political earthquake for the Western Balkans. Few seasoned observers truly believed the Student List could top Aleksander Vucic’s entrenched ...

22h

At the basic mechanical level, the story of Serbia's elections, as those in Brazil, as those in Hungary, is turnout, turnout, turnout. Those who want to defend democracy must, above all, show up. That is the lesson. My short analysis for @odgovor.bsky.social. odgovor.ba/article/28410/

I felt strongly already in 2024, in a way that I could not fully rationally articulate even to myself, that the global far-right tide which had begun in 2015-2016 was far closer to its end than its beginning. In 2026, I believe we have definitive proof of its ebb. Slow, uneven, but clear.

The election results in Serbia are good news for the security and stability of the entire Western Balkans, as Vucic was the chief architect of virtually all major disputes in the region. That said, the Student List is a heterodox coalition. We should not expect...

...to prove and constitute itself. Accept now that the official rhetoric will be over the map ideologically, especially at first. Real progress may need to be quiet, and unglamorous.

The Serbian people have made a major decision. The entire region would benefit from a democratic, moderate Serbia. This may - or not - be its genesis. Let us at least give the citizens of Serbia a chance to finish what they have started tonight.

...a 180 degree transformation in Belgrade's positions on Kosovo, Bosnia, or Montenegro. The (ultra)nationalist right will remain a major factor in the country's politics. And presidential elections are scheduled for December.

As such, a (significant) degree of wariness in regional capitals is also not without merit. Still, this is an opening, and politics - especially in the Balkans - is a game of inches. Decades of animosity aside, neighboring states should give the new government the opportunity...

Unofficial preliminary results from Serbia's independent elections observers shows the Student List just below 51.5% of the popular vote. Vucic himself has claimed the List will end up with some 135-140 MPs, enough for a stable majority government.

Bosnian Serb secessionist leader Dodik secured U.S. sanctions relief in October 2025 but in 2026 he appears to have lost his two chief patrons: Orban and Vucic. Even with his SNSD’s re-election weeks ago in Bosnia, this is a disastrous turn of events for the Banja Luka regime.

I do not at foreclose the possibility of various sorts of political shenanigans even after Vucic’s concession but this extraordinary result in Serbia is what happens when people show up: in the streets, at the ballot box. That’s the lesson. If you care about democracy, show up.

Vucic concedes defeat. The true scale of the Student List victory remains to be seen — but this a political earthquake for the Western Balkans. Sincere congratulations to the citizens of Serbia who held out hope against hope and mobilized in extraordinary numbers.

I don't know who needs to hear this but please do not bet on the Serbian elections, for your own sake. This is not going to be free and fair vote, that much is clear already, and the likeliest outcome is you getting fleeced.

Whatever happens tonight, Serbians deserves credit for engaging in the democratic process. That they are continuing to participate despite obvious efforts by the Vucic regime to stymie their rights is an indictment of the culture of defeatism in other parts of the region.

A few basic points as we await results from Serbia later today: a. It is unlikely that we will have a clear winner tonight. Turnout is looking impressive, and Serbia’s ballot counting is slow at the best of times. High turnout also suggests large mobilization by the opposition...

Both also celebrated the assassination of the country’s one genuine, senior reformist figure, PM Zoran Djindjic, in 2003. Djindjic was killed by elements of Serbia’s expansive and influential security apparatus, who are connected to the country’s likewise powerful organized crime underground...

...and the same will likely be called upon again to act if the Student List genuinely has a breakthrough tonight. As such, do not expect a Hungary-style change in government in Serbia even if the opposition clearly wins; think Pakistan, or Egypt.

If such a cohort is even seated in parliament, that chaos may well continue in the chamber; including physical altercations but also attempts by the SNS to buy-off oppositions MPs to pad its numbers.

c. Serbian politics remains dominated by the dark, brutal horrors of the 90s. Vucic and his long-time No. 2 Dacic both served under Milosevic and remain beholden to his core project; i.e. authoritarianism at home, militarism and expansionism abroad (e.g. Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro).

...which the regime will further try to derail by delaying the count. A significant number of invalidated ballots will be one of the clearest signs of significant regime-direct fraud. It may take days to have real clarity on the outcome.

b. A close finish between the two blocs – Vucic’s SNS et al and the Student List – will mean protracted instability in the country. Violence in the streets is quite likely, again primarily directed by the regime as we have already seen in and around Belgrade today.

danas.rsIZBORI UŽIVO Raste napetost, odziv veliki: Ima incidenata, blokiran deo Beograda oko RIK-a (FOTO/VIDEO)U 7 časova danas su otvorena biračka mesta za glasanje na vanrednim parlamentarnim izborima u Srbiji, na kojima se bira 250 poslanika Narodne skupštine. Biračka mesta biće otvorena do 20 časova, a svi...

Turnout in Serbia running ahead of the 2022 elections at the same time but numerous incidents, including at least one physical assault outside a polling station, have been reported around the country. In principle, strong turnout should favor opposition. www.danas.rs/vesti/politi...

That Vucic had decided to center Islamophobia in the closing hours of Serbia’s electoral campaign is also further proof - as if it was needed after the state sponsored Mladic funeral - that he remains exactly the same person he was in the 90s: a virulent, violent extremist.

Jasmin Mujanović@jasminmuj.bsky.social

Obviously all of these American and European far-right influencers were brought in by the Serbian regime ahead of the country’s parliamentary elections on Sunday. But who actually directed the operation, and how much these individuals were paid, is still worth investigating.

Folks used to think Elon Musk is a real life Tony Stark. No, but he may be a real life Lex Luthor.

nypost.comExclusive | Chris LaCivita and James Blair donate full Bosnian consulting fee to Trump presidential libraryWASHINGTON — President Trump’s election advisers Chris LaCivita and James Blair have donated their six-figure consulting fees from a controversial side-hustle in Bosnia and Herzegovina to Tru…

Some of the clearest evidence to date how toxic Dodik's money is becoming in DC: "Chris LaCivita and James Blair have donated their six-figure consulting fees from a controversial side-hustle in Bosnia and Herzegovina to Trump’s presidential library." nypost.com/2026/10/22/u...

Vucic will not allow for fair elections in Serbia, precisely because of the significant public support enjoyed by the Student List. The likeliest outcome of Sunday's vote is thus a contested result, still larger anti-regime mobilizations, but also more violence in the streets.

youtube.comBalkans at the Ballot Box: October Elections in Serbia and Bosnia and HerzegovinaYouTube video by Helsinki Commission

I was pleased to contribute to the @helsinkicomm.bsky.social's podcast re: the recent BiH elections, and the upcoming Serbian elections, with my associate Amanda Thorpe. We both stress the key role of the US Congress in shaping Washington's approach to the region. www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAEo...

An extraordinary number of high-profile far-right influencers from US and EU in Serbia, stumping for the Russia-China backed Vucic regime, days ahead of the country’s historic Oct 25 elections. Vucic’s alignments - Putin, Xi, soft serve fascists - tell you the story.

According to Politico, Serbia’s state-owned telecom firm has the single largest lobbying contract in Washington, DC. Telekom Srbija is a chief influence vehicle of the Vucic regime in the Balkans and has deep, robust commercial ties with China’s Huawei.

International politics does not get simpler than Russia's war against Ukraine. An autocratic, imperialist regime twice invades a peaceful, democratic neighbor because it will not capitulate to foreign domination. That's what it was in 2014, that's what it is still today.

jzbih.baObnova krova Aškenaske sinagoge u Sarajevu - Jevrejska zajednica Bosne i HercegovineZaštitimo jedan od najvažnijih spomenika jevrejskog kulturnog i vjerskog života u Bosni i Hercegovini. Obnovimo krov Aškenaske sinagoge u Sarajevu! Svaki donator dobit će trajno mjesto na zidu sinagog...

This is the direct donation link to refurbish the Sarajevo Ashkenazi Synagogue. Select any one of the large three "Hamsa" tabs; you will be provided with English instructions to initiate an international wire transfer. I did so moments ago, and had zero issues with my bank. jzbih.ba/obnova-krova...

Jasmin Mujanović@jasminmuj.bsky.social

A timely appeal by Arminka Helic for funds to refurbish the historic Ashkenazi synagogue in Sarajevo. MP Gratz has already initiated legislative action but greater attention needed from local authorities. This article contains donation info you can follow. www.thejc.com/news/world/r...

thejc.comRestoring the Ashkenazi Synagogue of Sarajevo will enrich all communities in this diverse city steeped in history - The Jewish ChronicleBorn in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Conservative peer and human rights campaigner Baroness Helic makes an impassioned call for support for the restoration of a landmark shul

balkaninsight.comTrump Associates Attended Rally for Bosnian Serb Nationalist PartyBIRN has confirmed that at least three associates of US President Donald Trump attended a campaign rally for Milorad Dodik’s Serb nationalist SNSD party, raising questions of possible violations of el...

“The rules on the financing of political parties in [BiH] prohibit parties from receiving contributions, including free services, from foreign legal entities, even through intermediaries. The rules also prohibit the misuse of public funds in…campaigns.” balkaninsight.com/2026/10/21/t...

theguardian.comSerbian prosecutor who investigated Belgrade Trump tower project ‘targeted with spyware’Apparent attempt to hack Rade Bajić’s iPhone comes amid efforts to undermine landmark criminal case

“A Serbian prosecutor who investigated the authorities’ allegedly illegal scheme to help the Trumps build a tower in Belgrade has been targeted with advanced spyware, expert analysis indicates.” www.theguardian.com/world/2026/o...

balkaninsight.comUS Concessions to Dodik Strengthen Moscow’s Hand in BosniaWashington’s lifting of sanctions on the Bosnian Serb leader left him free to pursue closer ties to Russia without restrictions – effectively giving Moscow veto powers over Bosnia and Herzegovina’s fu...

“Washington’s lifting of sanctions on the Bosnian Serb leader [Dodik] left him free to pursue closer ties to Russia without restrictions – effectively giving Moscow veto powers over Bosnia and Herzegovina’s future.” balkaninsight.com/2026/10/20/u...

Only days ahead of historic elections in Serbia, CPAC announces its first Balkans event, centering the country’s Beijing and Moscow backed strongman leader Aleksandar Vucic who has spent much of the past two years repressing peaceful anti-government protests.

The Moscow-Beijing backed Serb secessionist regime in Bosnia’s RS entity - one of the poorest regions in Europe - has again increased its lobbying budget to nearly $40 million, almost the whole of which is going to U.S.-based operatives. All of it Bosnian taxpayer $$$. capital.ba/srpska-povec...

capital.bacapital.ba

detektor.baTrumpovi saradnici bili na izbornom skupu SNSD-aDetektor je na osnovu fotografija i videa prvi put identifikovao i potvrdio da su najmanje trojica saradnika američkog predsjednika prisustvovala stranačkom skupu SNSD-a. Nakon što su američki mediji ...

Bosnian media have identified White House-linked operatives Alex Garcia, James Blair, Andrew H. Smith, and (apparently) Chris LaCivita in photos of a pre-election rally of Sino-Russian backed secessionist regime in Bosnia which hired them, as NYT reported. detektor.ba/2026/10/19/t...

The anti-govt rioting in Albania reflects a generational rebuke of a political system and ruling class widely seen as criminal and thus illegitimate. This phenomenon is not unique to Albania. It is typical of the post-communist Western Balkans, as I discuss at length in my 2018 book "Hunger & Fury".